What GLP-1 weakens may be not only appetite, but also the “easily saying yes” in Asia Pacific consumption that depends on impulse, habit and occasions

Overview

The report studies how changes in appetite after GLP-1 use transmit along the consumption chain. J.P. Morgan conducted a proprietary survey of 533 current users in China, India and South Korea, finding that the impact is reflected not only in lower food intake, but also in reduced frequency of delivery and fast food, lower alcohol and tobacco consumption, more restraint in social and festive occasions, and weaker desire for impulse purchases. At the same time, consumers are more willing to pay for goods and services that help control the weight-management process, maintain results or make progress visible. Based on this, the report builds a directional mapping for Asia Pacific consumer industries and covered stocks.

Core views

The core risk is not simply a “smaller appetite,” but the potential weakening of the “easily saying yes” mechanism that relies on craving, convenience, habit, social permission and repeat purchases. The risks companies face may progress from a relatively manageable decline in average order value, to lower transaction frequency, and ultimately to the direct disappearance of consumption occasions. The beneficiaries are not all discretionary consumption, but spending that can provide a sense of control, visible progress or clear health goals. Because related consumption patterns determine repeat purchases and valuation multiples, the market may revalue high-exposure companies before GLP-1 significantly affects EPS.

Analysis framework

The report first analyzes changes in appetite, categories, channels, occasions and purchase desire after GLP-1 adoption, then breaks the consumption chain into four links: desire trigger, convenience conversion, occasion permission and repeat consumption, and uses an “average order value—frequency—occasion” framework to assess business risk. It then maps covered stocks into three groups: “easily saying yes,” “adapting” and “goal-oriented,” while assessing directional impact by sub-industry. The survey is a post-adoption behavioral survey, not a penetration forecast or causal study.

Methodology notes

• Consumer behavior framework“Easily saying yes” consumption chain

  Desire triggers, convenience conversion, occasion permission and repeat purchases together form low-friction demand.

  GLP-1 may simultaneously weaken appetite, the desire for instant gratification and the social permission to indulge, making it harder for convenience channels to convert impulse into transactions as consistently as before.

• Business risk frameworkAverage order value—frequency—occasion risk

  Distinguishes three types of impact: less per purchase, fewer purchases, and disappearance of consumption occasions.

  Average order value risk can be partially buffered through pricing, product mix, smaller portions and premiumization; frequency declines impair customer lifetime value and operating leverage; disappearance of occasions may eliminate the entire transaction and associated group add-on consumption.

• Asset mapping frameworkEasily saying yes—adaptive—goal-oriented mapping

  Groups companies based on whether demand happens automatically, whether the company is shifting toward nutrition and control, and whether products directly serve consumer goals.

  This mapping is used to judge companies’ relative exposure to GLP-1 behavioral changes, while emphasizing that it is one of many investment factors and a stage-specific snapshot, not a final investment conclusion.

• Survey methodologyPost-adoption behavioral survey

  Surveyed 533 current GLP-1 users in China, India and South Korea.

  The sample covers three markets with substantial differences in diet, channels and social habits, but is mainly composed of current users who are urban and already experienced in weight management; the results are used to identify behavioral direction, not to estimate overall penetration.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mixue, JUBI, ITC, Calbee, Wuliangye, UBBL

  High-exposure “easily saying yes” group, with demand respectively tilted toward frequency, habit, craving or social-occasion drivers.

  Strengths

  Existing channels, brands and repeat-consumption models can efficiently capture low-friction demand.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is more dependent on impulse, habit and high-frequency transactions; after consumers increase deliberation and restraint, convenience may not necessarily sustain conversion.

  Comparison

  Compared with adaptive and goal-oriented companies, this group relies more heavily on automatically occurring repeat purchases.

  Risks

  Order frequency, store and delivery utilization, customer lifetime value and operating leverage may come under pressure; Mixue, Calbee, Wuliangye and UBBL are UW, while JUBI and ITC are N.

• TATACONS, MRCO

  Adaptive companies, extending from impulse-adjacent demand toward nutrition, protein and functional products.

  Strengths

  Existing product portfolios are beginning to build goal-oriented growth engines around nutrition and control.

  Weaknesses

  Traditional businesses may still be affected by weaker consumption frequency or impulse demand, and transformation effectiveness depends on the share of new products and execution.

  Comparison

  Risk is lower than the pure “easily saying yes” group, but their goal-oriented attributes are not yet as strong as companies directly serving health and visible progress.

  Risks

  If nutrition and functional businesses do not expand sufficiently, pressure on traditional demand may offset transformation benefits; both companies are OW.

• Haitian, ASICS, Classys, APR

  Goal-oriented companies, respectively serving home cooking, exercise maintenance and appearance improvement.

  Strengths

  Products can help consumers control intake, maintain results or make progress visible, aligning with the direction of spending migration toward explicit goals.

  Weaknesses

  The opportunity is selective and does not mean all health, beauty or discretionary consumption categories will broadly benefit.

  Comparison

  Compared with companies that rely on impulse and social permission, this group is more likely to receive active spending after consumer deliberation.

  Risks

  Demand sustainability depends on GLP-1 adoption, the degree to which habits continue after discontinuation, and the actual conversion of products into goal-driven demand; all four companies are OW.

• Asia Pacific fast food, casual dining, delivery and instant-gratification beverages

  Direct negative exposure.

  Strengths

  Companies can still buffer declines in single-purchase volume through pricing, product mix, smaller portions, formula adjustments and premiumization.

  Weaknesses

  Delivery, fast food, sugary drinks and social dining all rely on frequency, convenience and instant gratification.

  Comparison

  Compared with retail that only faces basket reconstruction, these businesses are more likely to encounter the disappearance of entire transactions or consumption occasions.

  Risks

  Lower order frequency, weaker add-on purchases, lower store and delivery utilization, and valuation downgrades ahead of earnings cuts.

• Functional nutrition, condiments, fitness and sports, beauty and medical aesthetics

  Goal-oriented support or selective positive exposure.

  Strengths

  Benefit from increased home cooking and consumers’ investment in protein, supplements, exercise, health checks and visible appearance improvement.

  Weaknesses

  Spending increases are concentrated in products that can demonstrate control or progress, while most discretionary categories such as jewelry, luxury goods and fragrances remain broadly stable overall.

  Comparison

  The growth logic comes from explicit goals, not a broad discretionary consumption wealth effect.

  Risks

  If products lack clear efficacy, visible results or linkage to the GLP-1 journey, the industry theme may not translate into company revenue.

Key data

• Survey sample533 people175 people in China, 183 people in India, and 175 people in South Korea.
• Reduced appetite85%China 89%, India 74%, South Korea 92%.
• Decline in desire for impulse or reward-type purchases84%This is important evidence that changes in consumer desire go beyond reduced food intake.
• Decline in snack consumption79%Fried foods fell 77%, and sugary drinks fell 70%.
• Decline in fast-food consumption or frequency79%Shows that the impact may extend from order size to the number of transactions.
• Reduction in delivery74%At the same time, 68% of respondents increased home cooking.
• Decline in alcohol consumption62%Among applicable tobacco users, 69% reduced tobacco consumption.
• Increase in exercise84%Users are not relying entirely on medication, but are increasing efforts that help maintain results.
• Increase in gym spending62%Spending on supplements and protein increased 58%, and spending on health checks increased 51%.
• Recommended GLP-1 to others71%79% of respondents expect some habits to continue after discontinuation.

Impact & implications

Dining, delivery, tea beverages, alcohol and tobacco, and high-frequency impulse-driven packaged foods may face weakening transaction frequency and consumption occasions, with companies dependent on repeat purchases and operating leverage particularly sensitive. The impact on grocery retail is more likely to appear as basket reconstruction rather than broad contraction; condiments, home cooking, functional nutrition, fitness and sports, beauty and medical aesthetics may gain support as consumers pursue a sense of control and visible results. Current penetration in Asia is low, and short-term earnings impact is limited, but if the market begins to lower long-term frequency and repurchase assumptions, high-valuation consumer stocks may come under pressure ahead of time.

Risks

• Survey respondents are current GLP-1 users, and the sample skews urban and already experienced in weight management, so it cannot be directly extrapolated to the entire population.
• This study is a post-adoption behavioral survey, not a forecast of GLP-1 adoption, penetration or earnings impact, and cannot independently prove causality.
• China, India and South Korea differ significantly in diet, channels, healthcare systems and social habits, so the magnitude of commercial transmission may vary.
• Current penetration in Asia is low, and it may take a long time for behavioral signals to translate into listed companies’ revenue and EPS impact.
• Companies can partially buffer volume and frequency pressure through pricing, product mix, smaller portions, low sugar, protein and premiumization.
• The persistence of behavior after discontinuation remains uncertain, although 79% of respondents expect some habits to continue.
• The “easily saying yes” framework is only one input into investment judgment and cannot replace analysis of company fundamentals, valuation and competitive landscape.

What to watch

• The timing and speed of rollout of oral Wegovy and Lilly orforglipron in Asia, especially progress on orforglipron potentially being approved in China from late 2026 to early 2027.
• After the first domestic semaglutide products in China are expected to be approved in 2027, whether local companies’ channel coverage and marketing accelerate mass-market adoption.
• Whether consumer companies launch muscle-maintenance protein, smaller portions, portion-control or functional nutrition products for GLP-1 users.
• Changes in transaction frequency, repurchase rates, average order value and store utilization in high-exposure industries such as fast food, delivery, tea beverages, alcohol and tobacco.
• Whether growth in spending on fitness, supplements, health checks, sportswear, beauty and medical aesthetics continues and can translate into actual revenue for covered companies.
• The degree to which diet, exercise and impulse-consumption habits continue after discontinuation, and whether recommendation behavior can form a user-growth flywheel.
• Whether valuation multiples of high-frequency consumer stocks reflect long-term frequency risk before EPS forecasts are clearly adjusted.