Goldman Sachs lowers 2026E-2027E global PC shipment forecasts; AI PCs remain a structural bright spot

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' update on the global PC market TAM and shipment forecasts. The report lowers global PC shipment forecasts for 2026E-2027E to -14%/-5% YoY and expects 2028E shipments to be broadly flat; at the same time, it emphasizes that AI PCs and Gaming PCs will drive product mix upgrades and ASP expansion.

Core views

The core view is that overall PC demand will remain under pressure in 2026E-2027E, mainly due to rising raw material costs, pressure from CPU and memory prices, and demand brought forward by the earlier replacement cycle; however, AI PC penetration continues to rise and is expected to reach 59%/72%/82% in 2026E-2028E, becoming the main source of growth and mix upgrade in a weak aggregate environment.

Analysis framework

The report uses a bottom-up TAM model, aggregating forecasts from major brands and suppliers including Apple, Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS, Samsung, Microsoft, LG, Xiaomi, and Gigabyte, and updates forecasts by product category, region, vendor, ASP, and AI PC and Gaming PC penetration.

Methodology notes

• market_sizingBottom-up TAM model

  Bottom-up TAM estimation

  Global PC shipments are aggregated by brand shipment volumes, and revenue is calculated by multiplying ASPs of desktops, notebooks, and workstations by shipment volumes and summing them.

• forecast_revisionEstimate revision analysis

  Forecast revision analysis

  The report compares new and old forecasts to quantify changes in global PC shipments and revenue for 2026E-2028E versus the previous model.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Apple

  One of the major PC brands and forecast inputs

  Strengths

  Strong brand power; premium models and AI PC upgrades may support ASP and share.

  Weaknesses

  Overall PC demand weakness may still affect shipment elasticity.

  Comparison

  Compared with price-sensitive brands, its premium product mix may be better able to withstand rising costs.

  Risks

  AI application adoption falls short of expectations or the replacement cycle is delayed.

• Lenovo

  One of the major PC brands and forecast inputs

  Strengths

  Has advantages in global PC scale and channel coverage.

  Weaknesses

  Overall PC shipment declines will affect scale-driven vendors.

  Comparison

  The report's tables show signs of Lenovo gaining share during the forecast period.

  Risks

  Rising costs, weak regional demand, and intensified competition.

• HP

  One of the major PC brands and forecast inputs

  Strengths

  Strong foundation in commercial PCs and global channels.

  Weaknesses

  Commercial PC demand is under pressure in 2026E-2027E.

  Comparison

  Along with Lenovo and Dell, it belongs to the core group of traditional PC vendors.

  Risks

  Slower enterprise replacement pace and pricing pressure.

• Dell

  One of the major PC brands and forecast inputs

  Strengths

  Strong commercial PC customer base.

  Weaknesses

  Declining commercial PC forecasts may create pressure for it.

  Comparison

  Like HP and Lenovo, it is also affected by the commercial demand cycle.

  Risks

  Slower enterprise IT spending and rising component costs.

• Taiwan ODM Notebook supply chain

  Monthly shipment tracking target

  Strengths

  June shipments improved sequentially due to seasonality.

  Weaknesses

  Some ODM vendors were still down YoY, reflecting uneven demand recovery.

  Comparison

  The report tracks Quanta, Compal, Inventec, Wistron, and Pegatron.

  Risks

  Customer pull-ins occur early, followed by weaker demand in later quarters.

Key data

• Global PC shipment forecast2026E/2027E/2028E: 255 million/243 million/244 million unitsCorresponding to -14%/-5%/0% YoY.
• Previous global PC shipment forecast2026E/2027E/2028E: 257 million/261 million/268 million unitsThe new forecast is lower than the previous one by 2 million/18 million/25 million units, respectively.
• AI PC shipment forecast2026E/2027E/2028E: 150 million/175 million/199 million unitsCorresponding to +39%/+17%/+14% YoY.
• AI PC penetration2026E/2027E/2028E: 59%/72%/82%The penetration forecast is broadly unchanged.
• AI PC revenue forecast2026E/2028E: US$169bn/US$221bnThe report expects revenue CAGR of about 14% in 2026E-2028E.
• Gaming PC shipment forecast2026E/2028E: 26 million/28 million unitsThe report expects shipment CAGR of about 4% in 2026E-2028E, better than the overall PC CAGR of about -2%.
• Gaming PC revenue forecast2026E/2028E: US$46bn/US$52bnThe report expects revenue CAGR of about 7%, higher than the overall PC revenue CAGR of about 1%.
• Global PC revenue forecast2026E/2027E/2028E: US$261.4bn/US$255.9bn/US$262.5bnCorresponding to -5%/-2%/+3% YoY.

Impact & implications

For the supply chain, the report signals coexistence of pressure on aggregate demand and structural upgrading. Declining traditional PC shipments may weigh on low-end and price-sensitive supply chains, but AI PCs, high-end Gaming PCs, and brands and component segments with spec-upgrade capabilities may benefit relatively.

Risks

• Memory and CPU costs continue to rise, further pressuring PC demand and margins.
• The replacement cycle after the end of Win 10 flattens, causing post-2026E demand to fall short of expectations.
• AI PC use cases and consumer adoption fall short of expectations, dragging on penetration growth.
• Weak macro and regional demand, especially a slowdown in commercial PC procurement.
• Gaming PC premiumization fails to offset the overall decline in total PC volumes.

What to watch

• Whether PC shipments in 2H26 continue to be affected by rising costs and earlier pull-forward demand.
• The pace of rollout of new AI PC applications and on-device AI use cases.
• Whether AI PC penetration advances along the path of 59%/72%/82%.
• Whether Gaming PC ASP and revenue can continue to outperform the overall PC market.
• The latest shipment and ASP revisions from major brands such as Apple, Lenovo, HP, Dell, and ASUS.
• Whether monthly Taiwan ODM notebook shipments confirm seasonal improvement or show a pullback.