618 top KOL first-day livestreams improved but were not strong, with Mao Geping still leading

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' pulse check on the first day of the 2026 618 shopping festival for China's cosmetics industry, focusing on Tmall's top-KOL beauty pre-sale livestreams, platform promotion cadence, discount intensity, SKU launches, and GMV performance at key brands. The report notes that 618 carries very high weight in online sales: May and June together account for nearly 75% of Q2 online GMV and about 21% of full-year GMV, so first-day performance is useful for assessing second-quarter momentum.

Core views

The core conclusion is twofold: on the one hand, top-KOL first-day livestream performance improved versus Women's Day, and some domestic leaders were supported by more SKUs, core hero products, and new launches; on the other hand, overall absolute growth was not strong, and livestream samples cannot fully represent a brand's omnichannel performance. Mao Geping stood out the most, with GMV up more than 10% YoY, the Caviar Cushion up 50% YoY, and the new primer sunscreen isolating lotion selling about 20,000 units. Proya's overall YoY decline was only 1%, but part of the improvement came from more SKUs and bundle sales. Giant Biogene and Bloomage Biotechnology remained under clear pressure, down about 72% and 68%, respectively; Botanee and Shanghai Jahwa were down about 20%, but were also affected by a high base last year.

Analysis framework

The report uses online tracking, channel research, and comparison of top-KOL livestream samples to assess platform-level promotion cycles and discount intensity, brand-level changes in SKU count, discounts and giveaways on core products, and first-day YoY GMV performance. The valuation section uses a 12-month target-price framework, mainly based on 2027E P/E, cost of equity, and discounting of industry benchmark multiples.

Methodology notes

• Channel trackingOnline GMV tracking and channel research

  Assess 618 sales momentum through online data and channel checks on Tmall, Taobao, JD.com and others.

  The report treats first-day top-KOL livestreams as an early pulse indicator, while emphasizing that full-period Tmall and Douyin data are needed to explain brand performance more completely.

• Valuation methodsP/E target price method

  Use 2027E P/E as the core and discount back to end-2026 to derive a 12-month target price.

  Different companies use different target multiples and costs of equity; for example, Mao Geping's HK$106 target price is based on 28x 2027E P/E, while Giant Biogene's HK$46 target price is based on 22x 2027E P/E.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock attributes across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles.

  Goldman Sachs uses this framework to compare growth, returns, and valuation levels across covered stocks and industry peers, providing context for investment judgment.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Rate the probability of a company being acquired on a 1 to 3 scale.

  1 indicates a relatively high M&A probability, 2 indicates a medium probability, and 3 indicates a low probability; if the probability is high enough, Goldman Sachs can include an M&A component in the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mao Geping Cosmetics Co.

  Core positive name

  Strengths

  First-day GMV grew more than 10% YoY, the Caviar Cushion grew 50% YoY, and the new primer sunscreen isolating lotion sold about 20,000 units; Goldman Sachs rates it Buy with a HK$106 target price.

  Weaknesses

  The valuation already reflects high growth expectations and is sensitive to sustained success in new products and premium color cosmetics penetration.

  Comparison

  It clearly outperformed most peers and is the report's clearest leader.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected penetration of mid- to high-end beauty, higher marketing expense, and intensifying competition from overseas premium brands.

• Proya Cosmetics

  Improving but Neutral-rated

  Strengths

  The group was down only 1% YoY on the first day, the Proya flagship brand grew 4% YoY, and the SKU layout was relatively balanced.

  Weaknesses

  Part of the improvement came from more SKUs and bundle sales, and some core products still declined YoY.

  Comparison

  It performed better than Giant Biogene, Bloomage Biotechnology, Botanee and Shanghai Jahwa, but lagged Mao Geping.

  Risks

  New product development, intensifying competition, ramp-up of new brands, and execution uncertainty after sales expense and management changes.

• Giant Biogene Holding

  Buy-rated but under pressure in the short-term livestream sample

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a HK$46 target price, and its long-term valuation still reflects the value of its beauty and medical device business mix.

  Weaknesses

  First-day GMV fell about 72% YoY, affected by a high base and a shift in channel focus toward self-operated stores and lower-tier KOLs.

  Comparison

  Its short-term livestream performance was clearly weaker than Mao Geping and Proya.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected growth in the professional skincare market, intensifying competition, product development failures, and regulatory risk.

• Bloomage Biotechnology Corp.

  Negative name

  Strengths

  Some hyaluronic-acid-related brands still have product foundations.

  Weaknesses

  Group GMV fell about 68% YoY, several brands or SKUs saw reduced exposure, and overall performance was weak; Goldman Sachs rates it Sell.

  Comparison

  It ranked toward the bottom among the tracked brands.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected skincare recovery, weak demand, competitive pressure, and less-than-expected improvement in sales expense efficiency.

• Botanee Biotech

  Neutral watch

  Strengths

  Winona's core SKU sales remained relatively stable, price points stayed steady, and some discounts were more restrained.

  Weaknesses

  Group GMV fell about 22% YoY, affected by a high base from last year.

  Comparison

  It performed weaker than Mao Geping and Proya, but better than Bloomage Biotechnology and Giant Biogene.

  Risks

  Dermatology-grade skincare penetration, market share, contribution from non-skincare categories, new-brand contribution, and volatility in advertising and promotional spending.

• Shanghai Jahwa United

  Buy-rated but down on the first day

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a Rmb25 target price; some single products such as Tai Chi Water showed relative resilience.

  Weaknesses

  First-day GMV fell about 20%, ViVE cream dragged performance, and Dr. Yu did not appear in the livestream.

  Comparison

  Short-term performance lagged Mao Geping and Proya and was close to Botanee.

  Risks

  Overseas business impairment, losses and store closures at Herborist offline stores, Dr. Yu/ViVE growth below expectations, weak online execution, and management transition effects.

Key data

• 618 sales weightNearly 75% of Q2 online GMV; about 21% of full-year GMVBased on Goldman Sachs online tracking, covering Taobao, Tmall and JD.com.
• Tmall promotion intensityAround 85% of list priceBasically stable versus last year's 618.
• JD.com and Douyin promotion intensityJD.com up to about 90% of list price; Douyin up to about 87% of list priceDiscounts were narrower than in last year's 618.
• Mao Geping first-day performanceGMV up more than 10% YoYThe strongest performer among the tracked brands.
• Mao Geping Caviar CushionUp about 50% YoYThe report says it remains a core strong color cosmetics item.
• Mao Geping primer sunscreen isolating lotionSales of about 20,000 unitsThe new product has steady momentum.
• Giant Biogene first-day performanceGMV down about 72% YoYAffected by a high base and a channel strategy shift toward self-operated stores and lower-tier KOLs.
• Proya Group first-day performanceDown about 1% YoYThe decline narrowed, but part of the improvement came from more SKUs and bundle sales.
• Bloomage Biotechnology first-day performanceGMV down about 68% YoYOverall performance was weak, with multiple SKUs posting double-digit declines.
• Botanee first-day performanceDown about 22% YoYCore SKU sales still provided support, and price points were relatively stable.
• Shanghai Jahwa first-day performanceDown about 20% YoYMainly dragged by the decline in ViVE cream, while Tai Chi Water was relatively resilient.
• Target prices and ratingsMao Geping Buy/HK$106; Giant Biogene Buy/HK$46; Shanghai Jahwa Buy/Rmb25; Proya Neutral/Rmb69; Botanee Neutral/Rmb42.2; Bloomage Biotechnology Sell/Rmb30All are Goldman Sachs 12-month target-price framework.

Impact & implications

The investment takeaway is that domestic beauty leaders continue to diverge: Mao Geping keeps earning a premium thanks to high growth, a premium-color-cosmetics positioning, and momentum in core hero products; Proya is improving in the near term but still needs to prove that bundle sales and SKU expansion are adding genuine demand; Giant Biogene and Bloomage Biotechnology still face pressure from channels, a high base, and category growth. Because the first-day top-KOL livestream sample is limited, the more important test is whether full-period Tmall and Douyin performance can validate real brand demand.

Risks

• The first-day top-KOL livestream sample only covers part of the channel mix and cannot represent the full 618 period or the full omnichannel performance.
• Shorter promotion cycles and narrower discounts on platforms may suppress consumer conversion.
• Some brands improved GMV by adding SKUs and bundle sales, but true same-store demand still needs validation.
• Competition between domestic brands and multinational premium brands may continue to intensify.
• Failed new product launches, rising marketing expenses, and weaker-than-expected channel execution could weigh on profitability.
• Regulatory risk and slower-than-expected category expansion may affect efficacy skincare, medical-aesthetics-related, and premium color cosmetics companies.

What to watch

• Aggregate GMV performance across the full Tmall, Douyin and JD.com periods, rather than only the first day of top-KOL livestreams.
• Whether Mao Geping's core Caviar Cushion and new primer sunscreen isolating lotion can sustain high growth.
• Whether Proya's more SKUs and bundle sales are delivering real incremental demand rather than diluting the performance of core hero products.
• Whether Giant Biogene's self-operated stores and lower-tier KOL channels can offset the decline in top-KOL livestreams.
• Whether Bloomage Biotechnology's brand portfolio and skincare business show signs of recovery.
• Whether platform discounts, giveaways and coupon力度 continue to narrow.