Goldman Sachs estimates recent Persian Gulf oil exports at approximately 15–16 million b/d, significantly above currently visible data

Overview

The report examines the extent to which Persian Gulf oil exports have been underestimated following an increase in tankers switching off AIS, limited satellite coverage, and greater use of ship-to-ship transfers. By revising historical vintages of shipping data and constructing a Persian Gulf crude oil balance, Goldman Sachs estimates recent total exports at approximately 15–16 million b/d; this indicates that exports are recovering from their March low but remain below pre-war levels.

Core views

Persian Gulf exports are becoming increasingly difficult to measure directly. More tankers are switching off their AIS or transponders as they leave the Persian Gulf, creating “dark-vessel transits”; meanwhile, satellite coverage remains limited and ship-to-ship transfers are increasing. Because some tankers reactivate their signals after traveling far from the Persian Gulf, export data for the same week are often revised substantially upward over subsequent weeks. Goldman Sachs estimates recent total Persian Gulf oil exports at approximately 15–16 million b/d, above the latest visible data; oil here includes crude oil, refined products, and liquefied petroleum gas. This level remains 7–8 million b/d below pre-war levels but is already 5–6 million b/d above the March low. The first method starts with Kpler's latest reported values and compares changes in estimates for the same export week across different data vintages. The report notes that upward revisions to average weekly Persian Gulf oil exports have generally widened since early June and currently stand at approximately 4 million b/d; the revisions cover source countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait and are concentrated primarily in crude oil. Goldman Sachs considers two scenarios: revisions remain at the level observed two weeks earlier, or continue increasing along the recent trend. This produces an estimate of approximately 15 million b/d for recent total exports. The appendix also shows that different data providers currently report broadly similar oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, but this does not eliminate vintage revisions caused by dark vessels subsequently reappearing. The second method does not rely on directly observing every vessel and instead constructs a crude oil balance: in principle, net crude oil exports equal crude oil production minus refinery runs and direct crude burning, plus crude oil inventory drawdowns; Kpler's refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas exports are then added to derive total oil exports. In the table, August 2026 crude oil production is 18.6 million b/d, crude burning is 1.3 million b/d, refinery runs are 6.1 million b/d, and visible inventory drawdowns are 0.7 million b/d, yielding implied net exports of 11.8 million b/d before adjustment for the historical residual. After adjustment using the average residual from 2018–2025, implied crude oil exports are 13.4 million b/d, consistent with the approximately 13.5 million b/d cited in the main text; after adding refined products and liquefied petroleum gas, total exports are approximately 16 million b/d. Adjusted implied crude oil exports averaged 10 million b/d from March through July. For calibration, average unadjusted implied exports during 2018–2025 were 15.3 million b/d, while official net exports were 16.9 million b/d, producing a residual of negative 1.6 million b/d. Data sources for the balance include production for most countries from OPEC secondary sources, Qatar crude oil and condensate production and crude burning from the IEA, refinery runs and onshore and floating crude inventories from Kpler, and official net exports from PetroLogistics; August 2026 production is Goldman Sachs' preliminary estimate. When PetroLogistics monthly data are unavailable, the report extends observations using Kpler's monthly percentage changes and includes the Saudi–Kuwaiti Neutral Zone in inventories and net exports. The two mutually independent methods produce total export estimates of approximately 15 million and 16 million b/d, respectively, cross-validating the conclusion that exports exceed visible data. Although the estimate covers total Persian Gulf flows, persistent upward revisions imply that actual oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz may be close to the 8–10 million b/d estimated by US officials. Increased dark-vessel transits and ship-to-ship transfers by specialist shipping operators indicate that producers and carriers are adapting to the Middle East conflict. May 2027 Persian Gulf-to-China tanker freight rates rose fivefold in one month, reflecting the shipping market's view that disruptions may persist until later in 2027. However, Goldman Sachs believes that additional dark-vessel flows not yet observed, together with the price sensitivity of China's net crude oil imports, may moderate crude oil price increases if the disruption is prolonged; under a persistent-disruption scenario, the report continues to see greater upside potential in European natural gas and forward refined-product prices than in crude oil.

Analysis framework

The report first identifies the underestimation in direct shipping statistics caused by AIS deactivation, insufficient satellite coverage, and ship-to-ship transfers, and then estimates actual exports through two independent approaches. The first compares the same export week in the initial vintage and in vintages one, two, or four weeks later, adjusting the latest Kpler data based on recent revision patterns; the second estimates net crude oil exports using production, crude burning, refinery runs, and inventory changes, then adds refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas exports. Finally, the report uses Strait of Hormuz flows, forward tanker freight rates, and Chinese import behavior to explain the implications of export revisions for energy prices.

Methodology notes

• (Out-of-vocabulary methodology)

  Kpler historical-vintage revision method

  The report compares estimates for the same export week in the initial data vintage and in vintages one, two, or four weeks later, using the systematic upward revision pattern created when dark vessels reactivate their signals to adjust the latest export data that have not yet fully materialized.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Persian Gulf crude oil balance

  The report estimates net crude oil exports by subtracting refinery runs and direct burning from production and then adding inventory drawdowns, calibrating the result using the average historical residual between implied values and official exports.

• Event Game Theory and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Using forward tanker freight rates to gauge expectations of persistent shipping disruptions

  The report views the fivefold one-month increase in May 2027 Persian Gulf-to-China tanker freight rates as a signal that the market has significantly raised the probability of Middle East shipping disruptions persisting into 2027.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Crude oil

  Actual Persian Gulf exports are higher than visible data suggest, which may moderate the price impact of supply tightening under a persistent-disruption scenario.

  Strengths

  Recent Persian Gulf exports have recovered by 5–6 million b/d from the March low.

  Weaknesses

  Exports remain 7–8 million b/d below pre-war levels.

  Comparison

  The report believes its price upside is smaller than that of European natural gas and forward refined products.

  Risks

  If Middle East shipping disruptions persist, crude oil will still face upward pressure, but dark-vessel flows and price-sensitive Chinese imports may limit the gains.

• European natural gas

  The report views it as having substantial price upside under a scenario of persistent Middle East shipping disruptions.

  Strengths

  Its upward response to persistent disruptions is considered stronger than that of crude oil.

  Comparison

  The report believes its price upside is greater than that of crude oil.

  Risks

  Persistent shipping disruptions may drive prices higher.

• Forward refined products

  Persistent disruptions would affect refined-product supply and transportation, and the report believes forward prices have substantial upside potential.

  Strengths

  More price-sensitive than crude oil under a persistent-disruption scenario.

  Comparison

  The report believes their price upside is greater than that of crude oil.

  Risks

  A prolonged disruption to Middle East transportation may push forward prices even higher.

• Persian Gulf-to-China tanker shipping

  Forward freight rates reflect market expectations regarding the duration of Middle East shipping disruptions.

  Strengths

  Specialist shipping operators are adapting to the conflict environment through dark-vessel operations and ship-to-ship transfers.

  Weaknesses

  The route faces persistent disruptions, and direct flow statistics are becoming less transparent.

  Comparison

  May 2027 freight rates on this route rose fivefold in one month.

  Risks

  The market has significantly increased its pricing of disruptions persisting into 2027.

Key data

• Recent total Persian Gulf oil exports15–16 million b/dEstimate range from two independent methods; includes crude oil, refined products, and liquefied petroleum gas.
• Relative to pre-war levels7–8 million b/d lowerRecent exports have not yet recovered to pre-war levels.
• Relative to the March low5–6 million b/d higherIndicates that exports have recovered significantly from the March trough.
• Recent upward revision to weekly exportsApproximately 4 million b/dThe upward revision trend has continued to widen since early June and is concentrated primarily in crude oil.
• Kpler vintage-revision method estimateApproximately 15 million b/dAdjusted based on the historical pattern of data being revised upward after dark vessels reactivate their signals.
• Crude oil balance method estimateTotal oil approximately 16 million b/d; crude oil approximately 13.5 million b/dIn the table, residual-adjusted implied crude oil exports for August 2026 are 13.4 million b/d.
• August 2026 crude oil balance componentsProduction 18.6, crude burning 1.3, refinery runs 6.1, visible inventory drawdown 0.7 million b/dThe balance yields implied net exports of 11.8 million b/d before adjustment for the historical residual.
• Average calibration residual for 2018–2025Negative 1.6 million b/dUnadjusted implied net exports during the period were 15.3 million b/d, while official net exports were 16.9 million b/d.
• Average adjusted implied crude oil exports from March to July 202610 million b/dAverage for the period shown in the crude oil balance.
• Potential actual oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz8–10 million b/dThe report believes actual flows may be close to estimates by US officials.
• May 2027 Persian Gulf-to-China tanker freight ratesRose fivefold this monthReflects a significant increase in market concerns that shipping disruptions could persist into 2027.

Impact & implications

Persistent upward revisions to export data imply that Persian Gulf supply flows are higher than conventional vessel tracking currently indicates and also show that producers and carriers are adapting to the conflict through dark-vessel operations and ship-to-ship transfers. Goldman Sachs therefore believes that even if Middle East disruptions persist for longer, unobserved dark-vessel flows and the price sensitivity of Chinese imports may limit crude oil gains; by comparison, European natural gas and forward refined-product prices face greater upside risks under a persistent-disruption scenario.

Risks

• Tankers switching off AIS, limited satellite coverage, and increased ship-to-ship transfers may cause current export statistics to continue underestimating actual flows and generate substantial subsequent revisions.
• Middle East shipping disruptions may persist into 2027, and forward tanker freight rates already reflect this increased risk.
• Additional dark-vessel supply and the price sensitivity of China's net crude oil imports may limit the upside in crude oil prices under a persistent-disruption scenario.

What to watch

• Monitor the magnitude of upward revisions to weekly Persian Gulf export data one, two, and four weeks after publication.
• Monitor changes in dark-vessel transits, the reappearance of AIS signals, and ship-to-ship transfer activity.
• Monitor how May 2027 Persian Gulf-to-China tanker freight rates price the probability of persistent disruptions.
• Monitor the sensitivity of China's net crude oil imports to rising prices.