HSBC maintains a Buy rating on Kelun Biotech; sac-TMT's global phase III success supports U.S. commercialization expectations

Overview

This is an HSBC company research report on Kelun Biotech 6990.HK. The report centers on sac-TMT's success in the global phase III trial for 2L+ endometrial cancer and the subsequent U.S. commercialization outlook, while maintaining a Buy rating and HKD549.00 target price.

Core views

The report believes sac-TMT's global phase III success strengthens the global registration and commercialization certainty of Kelun Biotech's core ADC asset. In the near term, the main catalysts are the 2026 ASCO readout, China approval progress in 2H26, and data readouts for several first-line indications; in the medium term, a U.S. launch in 2027 and potential combination exploration with PD1/VEGF could expand the label and improve antitumor efficacy.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes clinical trial milestones, indication expansion, commercialization timeline, portfolio progress, and DCF valuation, while also referencing financial forecasts, market data, valuation multiples, and ESG metrics.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow target price

  HSBC uses the DCF method to derive the HKD549.00 target price and thereby judge about 29% upside versus the current share price.

• Clinical catalystClinical milestone tracking

  Assess asset value realization around key indication readouts, approvals, and launch timing

  The report focuses on trial readouts, approvals, and commercialization milestones for sac-TMT in 2L+ endometrial cancer, 1L PDL1+ NSCLC, 1L PDL1- NSCLC, and 1L TNBC.

• Product pipelineClinical-stage asset portfolio analysis

  Evaluate the company's medium- to long-term R&D pipeline across targets and stages

  The report mentions early-stage assets such as SKB500, SKB410, SKB103, SKB571, and SKB118 as important follow-up items for Kelun Biotech's pipeline expansion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kelun Biotech 6990.HK

  The company covered in the report and the main investment target

  Strengths

  sac-TMT's global phase III success, imminent U.S. commercialization outlook, and an ADC pipeline with multi-indication expansion potential.

  Weaknesses

  Still in the investment and commercialization ramp-up phase in the near term; EPS is still negative in 2025-2026.

  Comparison

  The report maintains a Buy rating, with about 29% upside to the current share price.

  Risks

  Clinical readouts falling short of expectations, approval delays, commercialization ramp-up below expectations, and valuation multiple compression.

• sac-TMT

  Kelun Biotech's core clinical and commercialization catalyst asset

  Strengths

  Global phase III success in 2L+ endometrial cancer, expected U.S. launch in 2027, and potential label expansion through PD1/VEGF combination exploration.

  Weaknesses

  Further approval, launch, and indication expansion validation is still required.

  Comparison

  The report also tracks other TROP2 ADC registrational trials as industry comparables.

  Risks

  Competitive progress in TROP2 ADCs, efficacy/safety differentiation, and regulatory and commercial execution risks.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report maintains a Buy rating.
• Target priceHKD549.00The DCF target price remains unchanged.
• Current share priceHKD424.20Market data as of the close on May 18, 2026.
• Implied upsideabout 29%Calculated based on the target price and current share price.
• Market capHKD72,532m / USD9,263mDisclosed in the report's market data table.
• 3-month average daily turnoverUSD30mDisclosed in the report's market data table.
• Free float ratio100%Disclosed in the issuer information table.
• Core clinical eventsac-TMT global phase III trial successThe indication is 2L+ endometrial cancer.
• U.S. commercialization timing2027The report expects sac-TMT to launch in the U.S. with 2L+ endometrial cancer as its first indication.
• 2027 EPS forecastRMB1.59HSBC Qianhai EPS diluted.
• 2028 EPS forecastRMB4.85HSBC Qianhai EPS diluted.

Impact & implications

If sac-TMT's subsequent readouts, approvals, and commercialization progress as expected, Kelun Biotech's core asset value and international commercialization outlook could further strengthen; however, the valuation is already highly dependent on the pace of clinical readouts, approvals, launches, and sales ramp-up.

Risks

• Key clinical trial data falling short of expectations.
• Approval progress in China or the United States slower than expected.
• sac-TMT's U.S. commercialization launch or ramp-up below expectations.
• Intensifying competition in the ADC and TROP2 space.
• DCF valuation is sensitive to assumptions about long-term revenue, margins, and discount rates.
• The company is still expected to post losses in 2025-2026, creating timing risk for earnings realization.

What to watch

• The 2026 ASCO readout for 1L PDL1+ NSCLC.
• sac-TMT approval progress in China in 2H26.
• China data for 1L PDL1- NSCLC and 1L TNBC.
• Preparation for sac-TMT's U.S. launch in the 2L+ endometrial cancer indication and the 2027 commercialization pace.
• Whether PD1/VEGF combination exploration can improve efficacy and expand the label.
• Progress of early-stage assets such as SKB500, SKB410, SKB103, SKB571, and SKB118.