Barclays account-move tracker: Publicis still the biggest beneficiary, WPP faces the highest pipeline risk

Overview

This is Barclays' second tracking note on account moves in the European media and advertising agency industry, focusing on publicly disclosed wins, losses and under-review pipelines for Media and Creative, and estimating the potential impact of these changes on FY26E and FY27E organic growth. The report says that over the past five years, Publicis has been the clearest winner, but the 2026 landscape is more balanced: Omnicom leads on media, WPP has ranked first in creative for three consecutive quarters, Publicis still has meaningful FY26E tailwind, Havas benefits moderately, and WPP still has the highest defensive pressure.

Core views

Core views include: first, account migration is one of the few trackable leading indicators in the advertising agency industry and can help assess future organic performance and market-share shifts. Second, Publicis's FY26E organic growth comes almost entirely from market-share gains, but as of 2026 it remains behind Omnicom in Media and behind WPP in Creative, so sustained outperformance in FY27E is not certain. Third, WPP's recent improvements in Media and Creative imply FY26E drag may be lower than 2025A and gradually ease through the year, but it still faces the most aggressive defense on large accounts under review, so further downside risk remains high. Fourth, Omnicom's Media wins are strong, but losses in creative accounts offset part of the contribution. Fifth, Havas is a relatively quiet winner, but material 2Q26 Media losses could drag on FY26E/FY27E.

Analysis framework

The report is based on COMvergence data, publicly disclosed creative account migration, industry media coverage, and company management commentary, separately tracking Media and Creative wins, losses, retentions, and ongoing reviews. It then converts net new business into estimated net sales and organic growth impact based on account billing size, conversion rates, and timing assumptions, and compares relative performance across Publicis, WPP, Omnicom, Havas, and Dentsu.

Methodology notes

• account_move_trackingMedia net new business tracker

  Media account net new business tracking

  The report tracks media account wins, losses, and retention business, and uses COMvergence billing data to estimate net new business size for each agency group.

• conversion_modelBillings to net sales conversion

  Billings to net sales conversion

  For media, a 9% billings-to-net-sales conversion rate is used, based on historical average levels for WPP Media and Publicis Media.

• creative_estimationCreative net sales proxy

  Creative business revenue proxy estimation

  Because creative fees are usually not disclosed, the report measures account scale by related media budgets and assumes creative net sales equals 0.65x media net sales.

• timing_modelTwo-quarter lag and four-quarter ramp

  Two-quarter lag and four-quarter ramp

  The report assumes new billings begin to affect performance with a two-quarter average lag and contribute 25% in each of four quarters.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Publicis Groupe SA (PUBP.PA)

  Primary beneficiary

  Strengths

  It had the strongest net new billings performance over the past five years, and is expected to receive about +400bps in FY26E organic tailwind, with both Media and Creative contributing positively.

  Weaknesses

  As of 2026 to date, it trails Omnicom in Media and trails WPP in Creative, and continued leadership into FY27E is uncertain.

  Comparison

  Compared with WPP and Havas, Publicis has the highest expected FY26E contribution; compared with Omnicom, it has a smaller creative-side drag.

  Risks

  Management warned against mechanically mapping billings to revenue or margin; current disclosed account migration data may not support a stronger long-term excess-growth story.

• WPP (WPP.L)

  Incumbent with highest pipeline risk

  Strengths

  Creative net new business ranked first for three consecutive quarters, and recent media momentum improvement has reduced FY26E drag versus prior expectations.

  Weaknesses

  Media business losses remain material, with FY26E total expected drag still around -60bps, and WPP accounts for 43% of current billings under review.

  Comparison

  Compared with Publicis and Havas, WPP has weaker organic growth tailwind; compared with Omnicom, WPP's creative is stronger but media risk is higher.

  Risks

  Further downside could come from large account reviews at Coca Cola, Novo Nordisk, L'Oréal, Telekom, and DoorDash.

• Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)

  Media leader but net-neutral overall impact

  Strengths

  As of June 2026, Omnicom ranked first in 2026 YTD Media net new business, with US$1.9bn excluding retentions and US$3.2bn including retentions.

  Weaknesses

  Billings from Creative account losses exceed wins, offsetting media contribution.

  Comparison

  Media performance is better than Publicis, WPP, Havas and Dentsu, but net organic impact is weaker than Publicis and Havas.

  Risks

  If Creative account losses continue, media wins may not fully translate into overall organic upside.

• Havas (HAVAS.AS)

  Moderate beneficiary

  Strengths

  FY26E combined expected around +170bps organic tailwind, and the report describes Havas as a quiet winner.

  Weaknesses

  Creative is broadly neutral, with relatively large Media losses in 2Q26.

  Comparison

  Expected contribution is lower than Publicis, but better than the combined impact from WPP and Omnicom.

  Risks

  Large Media losses could weigh on FY26E/FY27E, and management did not disclose a split of growth by new business, retention, and other revenue.

• Dentsu

  Informational mention, not covered by Barclays Research

  Strengths

  No clear investment recommendation is provided by the report.

  Weaknesses

  As of June 2026, 2026 YTD Media net new business is negative, around -US$1.3bn, making it one of the weaker performers.

  Comparison

  Compared with Omnicom, Publicis, WPP and Havas, Dentsu is the weakest in YTD Media data.

  Risks

  Dentsu is not covered by Barclays Research, so the information is for reference only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.

Key data

• Publicis FY26E combined organic tailwind+400bpsCombined impact from Media and Creative account migration, about twice management guidance of +200bps.
• Havas FY26E combined organic tailwind+170bpsThe report estimates Havas benefits mainly from Media.
• Omnicom FY26E combined impactbroadly neutralMedia wins are broadly offset by losses in Creative.
• WPP FY26E combined drag-60bpsCreative share gains partially offset media business losses, with drag less than earlier concerns.
• Omnicom 2026 YTD Media net new businessUS$1.9bn ex retentions; US$3.2bn including retentionsIncludes about US$0.5bn of billings won from WPP's Adidas account.
• Publicis 2025 Media net wins+US$7.7bnClearly ahead of Havas, Omnicom, Dentsu and WPP.
• Publicis five-year net new billingsUS$21bnThe report states that over the past five years Publicis was the clear winner in net new billings.
• WPP accounts under review exposureUS$3.8bn; 43% of billings under reviewWPP is the largest incumbent currently, accounting for about 2.6% of 2026E net sales.
• Total accounts under reviewUS$10.2bnUS$8.8bn is currently managed by one of the five HoldCos.

Impact & implications

The investment takeaway is that market-share changes in advertising agency groups are sufficient to materially affect organic growth. Publicis has the highest visibility for 2026 growth, but continued excess growth depends on whether it can sustain win momentum beyond 2026. WPP's short-term drag may ease quarter by quarter, but risk remains elevated because WPP is the incumbent on major accounts such as Coca Cola, Novo Nordisk, L'Oréal, Telekom, and DoorDash, where large account reviews are ongoing. Omnicom strengthened short-term relative position with stronger media performance, but creative-side share losses limit its combined contribution. Havas has a positive contribution profile, though large media losses could weigh on FY26E/FY27E.

Risks

• Publicly disclosed account migration is not complete, especially for Creative account migration which may be missing cases.
• Changes in clients' current advertising spend may have a larger impact on organic performance than account migration itself.
• The 9% billings-to-net-sales conversion rate may deviate materially from actual results, and conversion for large clients may be lower.
• Creative fees may deviate significantly from the assumed 65% of media net sales.
• The two-quarter lag and four-quarter spread ramp-up assumption is a simplification, and actual timing of confirmation may differ.
• WPP faces the highest ongoing account review defensive risk, with results likely to affect FY27E more than FY26E.
• Barclays and related parties may have business relationships with covered firms; the report notes investors should be mindful of potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Outcomes of WPP's retention efforts in major reviews at Coca Cola, Novo Nordisk, L'Oréal, Telekom, and DoorDash.
• Whether Publicis can regain leadership again in Media or Creative in the second half of 2026.
• Whether Omnicom can improve Creative account losses so media wins are not further offset.
• The actual FY26E and FY27E organic drag from Havas's 2Q26 Media losses.
• Actual conversion rates as account migration flows from billings to net sales and then to margin.
• Early signs of FY27E being influenced by account migration from 4Q25, 1Q26, and 2Q26.