Memory price increases hit PC demand; UBS cuts CY26/CY27 shipment forecasts

Overview

Based on a UBS Evidence Lab survey of 1,500 consumers in the US and China, combined with Taiwan ODM channel checks, this report evaluates the impact of rising memory costs on PC purchasing behavior, AI PC interest, consumer budgets, and brand preferences. The report's core conclusion is that higher memory prices may cause some consumers to delay PC purchases, prompting UBS to lower its CY26 and CY27 PC shipment forecasts.

Core views

UBS believes that rising memory and CPU costs, tight supply, potential down-specing, and the normalization of the Windows 11 replacement cycle will weigh on PC unit shipments over the next two years. Although about 68% of respondents in both the US and China expect to buy a new PC in the next two years, and consumer budgets have increased, about one-quarter of respondents may wait for memory prices to fall before purchasing, creating a risk of deferred demand. AI PCs still attract strong interest, especially in China, but consumers care most about faster information retrieval and search, rather than personal AI assistants or chatbots.

Analysis framework

The report uses consumer surveys, regional comparisons, historical survey series, PC age and replacement-cycle estimates, brand preference surveys, and supply-chain channel checks to cross-validate demand changes. UBS maps consumer responses on pricing, memory configuration, purchase timing, and AI PC premiums into revisions to CY26/CY27 PC unit forecasts.

Methodology notes

• Consumer surveyUBS Evidence Lab consumer survey

  Purchase intent and price sensitivity

  The survey covers a total of 1,500 consumers in the US and China, with questions including PC purchase plans, responses to memory price increases, AI PC interest, budget, brand preference, and replacement cycle.

• Shipment forecastPC unit shipment forecast revision

  Demand deferral and supply constraints driven by memory costs

  Combining survey data and Taiwan ODM checks, UBS lowered its CY26 and CY27 PC shipment forecasts by about 5%, reflecting the impact of rising memory prices, tight supply, and potential down-specing.

• Regional comparisonComparison of US and Chinese consumers

  Differences in preferences for memory configuration and AI PCs across markets

  Chinese respondents are more willing to pay a higher price for the same memory and specifications, while US respondents show a higher proportion willing to reduce memory configuration or delay purchases.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• PC supply chain

  Core research subject

  Strengths

  Purchase intention over the next two years remains around 68%, and PC age and replacement cycles indicate continued replacement demand.

  Weaknesses

  Rising memory costs, tight supply, and potential down-specing led UBS to lower its CY26/CY27 shipment forecasts.

  Comparison

  Purchase intention over the next two years is about 68% in both the US and China, but Chinese consumers show stronger willingness to pay to retain memory configurations.

  Risks

  Sustained high memory prices, prolonged supply constraints, deferred demand, and normalization of the post-Windows 11 replacement cycle.

• AI PC

  Demand and ASP support factor

  Strengths

  Consumers in the US and China are willing to pay premiums of about 15% and 14%, respectively, for AI PCs, and overall interest in AI PCs remains high.

  Weaknesses

  Personal AI assistants or chatbots rank low among important functions when buying AI PCs, indicating that the AI value proposition still needs to be clearer.

  Comparison

  AI PC interest in China is about 82%, significantly above about 53% in the US, though China declined slightly sequentially while the US improved sequentially.

  Risks

  If AI PC features fail to translate into real usage value, premiums and replacement demand could fall short of expectations.

• Apple

  Improving consumer brand preference

  Strengths

  US brand preference rose to about 29% and China to about 13%, with sequential improvement in both markets.

  Weaknesses

  The report believes part of the improvement may be related to promotions, inventory discounts, or subsidies, rather than being entirely driven by the product cycle.

  Comparison

  Dell at about 15%, Lenovo at about 14%, and HP at about 7% saw little overall change, while Apple continues to lead in the US.

  Risks

  If pricing actions, promotions, or subsidies fade, the durability of improved brand preference still needs to be monitored.

Key data

• Survey sample1,500 consumersCovering the US and China.
• Share of consumers likely to delay PC purchasesAbout 25%Respondents said they may wait until memory prices fall before buying.
• Willing to pay more for the same memory and specificationsAbout 45%Based on the overall global respondent base.
• CY26 total PC shipment forecast241.6 million units, down 10.8% year over yearDown 5.1% from the previous forecast.
• CY27 total PC shipment forecast246.6 million units, up 2.1% year over yearDown 5.0% from the previous forecast.
• CY26/CY27 PC shipment forecast excluding Chromebooks224.9 million units / 228.6 million unitsCorresponding to a 10.4% year-over-year decline and a 1.6% year-over-year increase, respectively.
• PC purchase intention over the next two yearsUS about 68%, China about 68%Up about 200 basis points sequentially in the US; down both year over year and sequentially in China, reaching a survey low.
• Average PC ageUS about 33 months, China about 33 monthsIn both markets, this was about one month shorter sequentially.
• AI PC interestUS about 53%, China about 82%Up about 300 basis points sequentially in the US; down about 200 basis points sequentially in China but still at a high level.
• Acceptable AI PC premiumUS about 15%, China about 14%May partly offset pressure from rising memory costs.
• Apple brand preferenceUS about 29%, China about 13%Up about 400 basis points sequentially in the US and about 300 basis points sequentially in China.

Impact & implications

The report has a cautious implication for the PC supply chain: rising memory prices may pull forward some near-term purchases, but may also later lead to unit shipment declines; consumers' willingness to pay a certain AI PC premium and higher PC budgets helps support ASPs, but is insufficient to fully offset deferred demand and supply constraints. At the brand level, Apple preference is improving, while Dell, Lenovo, and HP are generally relatively stable; at the product level, AI PC selling points should focus more on search, information retrieval, and content creation rather than simply emphasizing personal AI assistants.

Risks

• Memory prices remain elevated for longer than expected, further suppressing PC demand.
• A higher share of consumers delays purchases, causing CY26 and CY27 unit shipments to fall below forecasts.
• Vendors maintain price or gross margin through down-specing, which could weaken user experience and the appeal of AI PCs.
• Insufficient understanding of AI PC functionality means that selling points such as personal AI assistants fail to become major purchase drivers.
• Investment in the technology sector carries above-average risk, including rapid innovation cycles, intensifying competition, macroeconomic cyclicality, and limited earnings visibility.

What to watch

• Whether memory prices and supply tightness persist into the second half of CY27.
• Whether PC purchase intention over the next two years in the US and China continues to hold at around 68%.
• Whether AI PC penetration in shipments from vendors such as HP can reach the expected 40%-50% range.
• Whether consumers continue to accept a 14%-15% AI PC premium.
• Whether Apple's improved brand preference in the US and China continues.
• Whether PC vendors rely more on price increases, down-specing, or promotions to cope with cost pressure.