Nomura Asia Forum: Global Divergence Worsens, AI Reshaping Asian Landscape

Overview

This report reviews the core macro views and investor surveys from the scene at the 2026 Nomura Asia Investment Forum. The Nomura Chief Economist team believes the current global economy is in deep divergence, mainly driven by energy, chip, and food triple supply shocks. Unlike the 2021-2022 inflation cycle, this shock lacks released pent-up demand, making the risk of economic stagnation in "stagflation" more prominent. In this context, the US leads among developed markets thanks to AI infrastructure investment, while many emerging economies are trapped in rising commodity prices. For the China market, the report emphasizes that although the AI boom brings growth momentum, it cannot cure the wounds left by the real estate crisis alone, and may aggravate structural inequality in society and regions. Significant North-South divergence within Asia is also present due to differing sensitivities to AI and energy prices.

Core views

At the global macro level, economic divergence is intensifying. The US is a clear winner among developed markets; AI infrastructure investment is expected to contribute approximately 1 percentage point to US GDP growth, and due to North America's independent natural gas market and net oil exporter status, the negative impact of the Iran war is relatively small for it. In contrast, the Eurozone suffers most severely from stagflation shocks, with GDP forecasts downgraded and inflation expectations upgraded. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) has risen to its highest level since 1998; even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply side interference still retains inertia. Nomura expects central banks' rate hike magnitudes to generally be lower than market pricing because this stagflation is driven more by supply shocks than demand overheating, and price competition from "China Shock 2.0" is also suppressing inflation transmission. Regarding the Chinese economy, AI prosperity coexists with real estate depression, and the former may aggravate the latter's structural pain points. AI-related capital expenditure is expected to contribute about 0.3 percentage points to GDP in 2026, but its positive effect should not be overestimated. On one hand, China still relies on imported high-end chips, causing part of the investment overflow and worsening trade conditions; on the other hand, the continuous downturn in the real estate industry has led to massive migrant worker unemployment and wealth shrinkage in low-tier cities. The AI super-cycle has highly centralized characteristics; resources and talent further concentrate towards a few top "smart cities", while displaced labor is forced into low-end services, depressing wage levels in traditional cities. This dual "K-shaped divergence" of income and region may reinforce each other, weakening aggregate demand, meaning relying solely on AI cannot solve the fundamental problems of the Chinese economy; policies must focus on clearing real estate legacy issues and supporting backward areas. Other Asia regions show a clear "North-South divergence" pattern. The AI revolution primarily benefits Northeast Asian economies; for example, Korea is expected to set a record current account surplus reaching 15.5% of GDP in 2026, while Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia will also achieve unexpected growth due to the tech super-cycle. Conversely, high energy prices strike South Asia and parts of Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Philippines growth potentially lagging. There is similar divergence within ASEAN: Singapore and Malaysia grow above potential levels for the third consecutive year, while Indonesia faces balance of payments pressure and the Philippines sees rising political risks. Regarding monetary policy, Nomura expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates in June and December 2026, with the policy rate eventually reaching 1.5%; the Reserve Bank of India's reaction function is passive, and fiscal deficit risks may expand due to energy subsidies; the Bank of Korea's rate hike magnitude may be lower than market expectations.

Analysis framework

The research report adopts a "Multiple Supply Shocks + Structural Divergence" analytical framework, distinguishing it from traditional cyclical analysis. The institution first identifies that the core contradiction in the current macro environment is not simply demand fluctuation, but the combined impact of energy, chip, and food triple supply shocks叠加 geopolitical (Iran War) influence. On this basis, by comparing the sensitivity differences of various economies to AI technological dividends and energy cost shocks, a logic line of regional divergence is constructed. Targeting the China market, the research report applies a structured analysis perspective of "K-shaped Divergence", not only focusing on total GDP contribution but deeply analyzing the interaction mechanisms of AI prosperity and real estate depression in three dimensions: income distribution, regional development, and employment structure, thereby concluding that AI cannot simply replace old momentum. Additionally, the report combines real-time voting results from over 120 investors at the forum site, comparing institutional views with market consensus to verify or correct judgments on central bank policy paths and asset price trends.

Methodology notes

• Macroecon Framework

  Multiple Supply Shock Analysis (Trio of Supply Shocks)

  The report attributes the current macro dilemma to the cumulative impact of energy, chip, and food triple supply shocks rather than a single factor. This method emphasizes that when analyzing inflation and growth, one needs to distinguish between demand-pull and cost-push factors, especially under the current lack of post-pandemic pent-up demand, where the risk of 'stagnation' in supply-shock induced stagflation is larger, determining that central banks will not hike aggressively like the last cycle.

• Industry/Industry Analysis Framework

  K-Shaped Divergence Structure Analysis

  In analyzing the Chinese economy, the report does not stop at total data but identifies reinforcing K-shaped divergence trends from two dimensions: 'People' (AI beneficiaries vs replaced) and 'Region' (top smart cities vs traditional low-tier cities). This methodology prompts investors that during technological transformation, structural inequality may become a key variable suppressing aggregate demand and policy effects.

• Event Gambling & Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap/Expectation Management

  Investor Sentiment Survey & Consensus Deviation

  The report quantifies market participants' immediate expectations via forum site voting (e.g., 79% think Fed lags curve) and uses them as contrarian indicators or consensus benchmarks to calibrate own views. This method helps readers understand implicit assumptions behind market prices, and trading opportunities or risks when institutional views differ from crowded market consensus.

• Cycle & Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Supply Chain Pressure Index's Inflation Leading Nature

  The report cites the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) as an inflation leading indicator, noting that historically US CPI peaks usually lag GSCPI peaks by approximately 6 months. This empirical rule provides a time anchor for judging when supply side disturbances transmit to terminal prices, assisting in predicting central bank decision windows.

Key data

• Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)Highest since 1998 (excluding pandemic period)Reflects severe global supply side interference, retains inertia even if Strait of Hormuz reopens
• AI Boost to US GDP Growth+1 percentage pointDerived from US occupying majority share of AI infrastructure investment
• AI Contribution to China 2026 GDP GrowthAbout 0.3 percentage pointsMainly through fixed asset investment channel, but positive impact should not be overestimated
• Top 100 China Real Estate Developers New Home Sales DeclineCumulative decline 72.7% 2021-2025Dropped another 19.7% YoY in first 4 months 2026, showing real estate depression continues
• South Korea 2026 Current Account Surplus Forecast15.5% of GDP (Record)Benefiting from trade condition improvement brought by AI upcycle
• Japan Core CPI Inflation Peak Forecast3.6% (YoY Q1 2027)Upstream inflation triggered by Middle East situation lags approx 6 months transmission
• Investor Survey: Fed Lags Curve79% Respondents AgreeShows high consensus on market perception of Fed policy response lag
• Investor Survey: China 10Y Bond Yield Outlook64% Believe Below Current 1.72% by Year EndHottest option 1.60%-1.70%, reflecting safe haven and loose monetary expectations

Impact & implications

Regarding global asset allocation, severe divergence in economic fundamentals signifies the end of the "all rise, all fall" era. Relative strength of US assets may persist, but caution against correction risk after AI valuations get too high (though surveys suggest low probability of significant correction in short term). For China assets, investors should abandon linear thinking of "AI saving the market," focusing on how policies respond to K-shaped divergence and the pace of real estate deleveraging; structural opportunities may outweigh total volume opportunities. Internally within Asia, allocation focus should tilt towards Northeast Asia benefiting from the AI cycle and select ASEAN nations (Singapore, Malaysia), while remaining cautious regarding energy-sensitive and structurally fragile South and Southeast Asian economies. On the bond market, rising global sovereign yields and curve steepening trends reflect inflation stickiness and fiscal concerns; the bond market watchdog may become active again, warranting vigilance against long-end interest rate volatility risks.

Risks

• Middle East situation escalation or Strait of Hormuz long blockade, leading to unexpected supply shock
• AI ROI fails to meet expectations or valuation bubble bursting, triggering global tech stock correction
• China real estate crisis deepens or K-shaped divergence goes out of control, leading to continuous weak domestic demand
• Global central banks misjudge inflation situation, excessive tightening or premature easing triggers financial market turmoil
• Geopolitical conflict expands, further disrupting global supply chains and trade order

What to watch

• Strait of Hormuz navigation status and GSCPI trend
• Fed Chair Warsh policy statement and FOMC internal divergence changes
• China "AI+" strategy implementation progress and real estate cleanup, fiscal reform policy issuance
• Japan Spring Wage Negotiation results and BOJ June FOMC resolution
• India fiscal deficit status and RBI monetary policy response to energy shock and El Nino
• Indonesia balance of payments pressure and government subsidy reform, capital flow management measures trends