China's e-commerce sales growth slowed to 0.2% in April, and platform revenue may face pressure in 2Q

Overview

This report is Nomura's quick note on China's e-commerce sector, based primarily on the retail sales data for April 2026 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 2026-05-18. The report points out that China's e-commerce sales growth slowed significantly in April, with online goods sales rising only 0.2% year on year to RMB 957 billion, down from 2.5% year-on-year growth in March; total retail sales excluding autos increased 1.8% year on year to RMB 3.4 trillion. Nomura believes this data is consistent with the cautious tone on the second quarter outlook in e-commerce companies' 1Q earnings calls.

Core views

Nomura's core view is that second-quarter growth momentum in China's e-commerce sector is weakening, and revenue expectations for major platforms need to be revised lower. The report expects Alibaba's customer management revenue (CMR) to decline 5% year on year in the upcoming June quarter, versus 1% growth in the March quarter; JD Retail's 2Q26 revenue may fall 7% year on year, versus 1.8% growth in 1Q26. By category, cumulative year-on-year growth in online food and beverage, apparel, and household goods all slowed versus the prior period; among discretionary categories, PC, home appliances, smartphones, cosmetics, and apparel sales also broadly slowed or turned negative.

Analysis framework

The report combines macro retail data with company revenue models: it first uses NBS April retail sales data to observe changes in online and offline consumption growth, then breaks down trends in food and beverage, apparel, household goods, PCs, home appliances, smartphones, cosmetics, and other categories, and finally maps the sector slowdown signals into Alibaba CMR and JD Retail revenue forecasts for the second quarter.

Methodology notes

• Macro and industry data trackingNBS retail sales year-on-year analysis

  Assess consumption and e-commerce sector conditions through monthly retail sales, online goods sales, and e-commerce penetration.

  The report focuses on comparing year-on-year growth in April versus March, as well as cumulative year-on-year growth in 4M26 versus 3M26, to identify marginal changes in consumption demand.

• Company revenue forecastingMapping industry data to platform revenue

  Translate slower e-commerce sales growth into forecasts for platform advertising/commission revenue and retail revenue.

  Based on this, the report expects Alibaba CMR and JD Retail to turn negative year on year in 2Q26, reflecting weaker transaction volume and merchant spending conditions.

• Category structure analysisComparison of online and omnichannel category growth

  Observe demand divergence across categories such as food and beverage, apparel, household goods, PCs, home appliances, smartphones, and cosmetics.

  The report argues that a high base, weaker trade-in subsidies, and smartphone price increases driven by higher memory chip costs are important reasons for the slowdown in some discretionary categories.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Alibaba (BABA US)

  Platform revenue is affected by industry sales growth and merchant spending

  Strengths

  The report still cites a Buy rating, and the platform's scale and merchant ecosystem remain resilient.

  Weaknesses

  Nomura expects June quarter CMR to decline 5% year on year, a clear deterioration from 1% year-on-year growth in the March quarter.

  Comparison

  Compared with the previous quarter, CMR shifts from low growth to negative growth, indicating pressure on e-commerce monetization conditions.

  Risks

  Further weakening in consumer demand, lower merchant advertising budgets, and intensifying promotional competition.

• JD (JD US)

  Self-operated retail revenue is highly correlated with merchandise consumption demand

  Strengths

  The report still cites a Buy rating, and JD Retail has supply chain capabilities in physical goods e-commerce.

  Weaknesses

  Nomura expects JD Retail revenue to decline 7% year on year in 2Q26, versus 1.8% year-on-year growth in 1Q26.

  Comparison

  Compared with 1Q26, revenue growth in 2Q26 is expected to turn from positive to negative, and pressure may be greater than in the broader online goods market.

  Risks

  Slowing demand in home appliances, PCs, and smartphones; a high base and weaker subsidies weighing on sales.

• China e-commerce sector

  The main subject of the report and the macro sector assessment target

  Strengths

  E-commerce penetration still increased 0.1 percentage point year on year to 29% in April.

  Weaknesses

  April online goods sales rose only 0.2% year on year, with growth momentum close to stalling.

  Comparison

  Online goods sales grew 2.5% year on year in March and slowed significantly in April.

  Risks

  Overall retail weakness, slower discretionary spending, fading subsidies, and continuing high-base effects.

• Online food and beverage, apparel, household goods

  Used to assess the internal category growth structure of e-commerce

  Strengths

  Food and beverage still maintained double-digit growth, while apparel and household goods remained positive.

  Weaknesses

  Cumulative year-on-year growth in 4M26 slowed versus 3M26 across all three categories.

  Comparison

  Food and beverage slowed from 17.2% to 15.6%, apparel from 11.6% to 6.8%, and household goods from 3.6% to 2.6%.

  Risks

  Continued cooling in consumer demand could further pressure online GMV and platform monetization rates.

Key data

• April online goods sales in ChinaRMB 957 billion, up 0.2% year on yearA sharp slowdown from 2.5% year-on-year growth in March.
• April retail sales in China excluding autosRMB 3.4 trillion, up 1.8% year on yearThis shows that the overall retail market is also slowing.
• April e-commerce penetration in China29%, up 0.1 percentage point year on yearOnline share continued to rise modestly, but sales growth is close to stalling.
• Alibaba CMR forecastDown 5% year on year in the June quarterCompared with 1% year-on-year growth in the March quarter.
• JD Retail revenue forecastDown 7% year on year in 2Q26Compared with 1.8% year-on-year growth in 1Q26.
• Online food and beverage salesUp 15.6% year on year in 4M26Below 17.2% year-on-year growth in 3M26.
• Online apparel salesUp 6.8% year on year in 4M26Below 11.6% year-on-year growth in 3M26.
• Online household goods salesUp 2.6% year on year in 4M26Below 3.6% year-on-year growth in 3M26.
• April PC salesDown 6.9% year on yearCompared with 15% year-on-year growth in March, turning negative in April.
• April home appliance salesDown 15% year on yearThe decline widened further from a 5% year-on-year decline in March.
• April smartphone salesUp 6.2% year on yearA sharp slowdown from 27.3% year-on-year growth in March.

Impact & implications

The report is cautious about the implications for China's e-commerce platforms and related consumer chains: slower sector sales growth may weigh on platform advertising, commissions, and retail revenue, especially with Alibaba CMR and JD Retail facing the risk of year-on-year declines in 2Q. Although e-commerce penetration still rose modestly, this is not enough to offset the pressure from the broader slowdown in consumption and online categories. For investors, the key focus should be on 2Q platform revenue, merchant spending willingness, promotional effectiveness, and whether demand in discretionary categories can stabilize.

Risks

• Further slowing in overall retail demand in China could cause e-commerce platform transaction volume and revenue to fall short of expectations.
• High-base effects and weaker trade-in subsidies may continue to weigh on discretionary categories such as home appliances and PCs.
• Rising memory chip costs may push up smartphone prices and suppress smartphone demand.
• Intensified promotional competition on platforms may compress margins, and even if transaction volume improves, revenue and profitability may not recover in tandem.
• The report's company revenue forecasts rely on macro retail data and industry earnings call feedback; if policy or promotional activities later exceed expectations, actual results may diverge.

What to watch

• NBS retail sales and online goods sales data for May and June 2026.
• GMV, average order value, merchant spending, and subsidy intensity of major platforms during the 618 promotion period.
• Alibaba's actual year-on-year change in CMR for the June quarter.
• JD Retail's 2Q26 revenue growth and performance in home appliance and 3C categories.
• Whether cumulative year-on-year growth in online categories such as food and beverage, apparel, and household goods continues to slow.
• Changes in trade-in subsidy policies and their marginal impact on demand for home appliances, smartphones, and PCs.