Goldman Sachs Cuts Global Smartphone Shipment Expectations; Premiumization and Foldables Become Structural Highlights

Overview

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research released the Global Smartphone Market Outlook Report, cutting shipment expectations for 2026-2027 and introducing forecasts for 2028 for the first time. The core background is that persistently high memory prices are restraining terminal demand, while the trend of product structure upgrading towards premiumization remains unchanged. The report also covers outlook for the foldable phone market and provides a brief update on the global PC market.

Core views

Demand Side: The global smartphone market has entered a saturation phase. Shipments in 2026 are expected to decline 10% YoY to 1.14 billion units, constrained mainly by two factors—the market itself becoming mature, and rising memory costs directly suppressing consumer purchasing power. Growth for 2027 and 2028 is expected to be 3% and 1% respectively, showing sluggish recovery. Value Side: Despite shipment pressure, market value still maintains positive growth. Global smartphone market value 2026-28E expected to grow YoY +3%/+2%/+2%, reaching $596bn/$606bn/$621bn. This is mainly due to two factors:一是 rising memory costs passed through to terminal selling prices;二是 continuous product structure upgrade towards premiumization, increasing proportion of models above USD 600. Foldable Phones: Goldman Sachs holds a positive attitude towards foldable penetration. Expected global foldable phone shipments in 2026: 41 million units, penetration 3.6%; 2027: 69 million units, penetration 5.9%; 2028: 80.4 million units, penetration 6.8%. Growth drivers include leading global brands entering foldable market in second half of 2026, new form factors and features providing differentiated experiences, and supply chain improvements pushing prices to more accessible levels. However, 2026/27E foldable shipment expectations were also cut by 10%/7% from previous update. Price Band Differentiation: - High-end (>USD 600): 2026-28E shipment CAGR reaches 5%, expected to reach 402 million units by 2028, accounting for 34% of total shipments (29% in 2025); revenue contribution rises from 66% in 2025 to 76% in 2028. High-end consumers have strong purchasing power, low price sensitivity, and continuous technology upgrades create additional demand. - Mid-range (USD 200-600): 2026-28E shipment CAGR is -2%, expected to shrink to 285 million units. Lack of revolutionary tech upgrades in mid-range market, plus middle-class consumer behavior tending towards conservative, “value-for-money” advantage no longer exists. - Entry-level (<USD 200): 2026-28E shipment CAGR only 1%, expected to reach 494 million units. Migration from 4G to 5G continues in developing markets, but memory price hike impacts this price band most heavily due to high price sensitivity of buyers.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs adopts a bottom-up approach to build the global smartphone TAM model, core logic is "Shipments x ASP = Market Value". Specifically: Step 1: Sum shipment forecasts brand by brand. Report updates latest shipment estimates for major manufacturers including Transsion, Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Lenovo, HTC, and Asus, summing up to get global shipments. 2026E global shipments 1.14 billion units, cut 4% from previous forecast. Step 2: Split structure by price band. Market divided into three zones: high-end (>USD 600), mid-range (USD 200-600), and entry-level (<USD 200), forecasting shipments and revenue share for each price band respectively to capture the structural trend of "premiumization". Step 3: Introduce value dimension cross-validation. Through memory cost changes, ASP variations, and product mix upgrades, explain why shipments decline but market value can still grow. 2026E market value $596bn, raised 2% from previous forecast, reflecting the "volume down, price up" logic. Report also separately establishes a forecast model for foldable phones, considering penetration rate, brand entry rhythm, and supply chain maturity, giving shipment and penetration path for 2026-28E.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Split

  Volume-Price Split Analysis

  Splitting market size into two dimensions: "Shipments x Average Selling Price (ASP)", can clearly distinguish whether driven by sales volume or price. In this piece, global smartphone shipments decline but market value grows, exactly revealing the "premiumization" structural opportunity through volume-price split.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkPenetration S-curve

  Penetration S-Curve Analysis

  Market penetration of new technologies or categories usually follows an S-shaped curve—slow initially, accelerating in mid-term, slowing later. Goldman Sachs uses this framework to analyze foldable phones, expecting penetration to rise from 3.6% in 2026E to 6.8% in 2028E, currently still in early acceleration stage of S-curve.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply Chain Upstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Cost Transmission and Price Elasticity

  Upstream memory cost hikes transmit along the supply chain to terminal selling prices, but price elasticity differs across different price bands. High-end users have low price sensitivity, so cost transmission is smooth; entry-level users are highly price-sensitive, memory price hikes directly restrain demand. This is key to understanding the differentiation of current market structure.

Key data

• 2026E Global Smartphone Shipments1.14 billion unitsYoY -10%, cut 4% from previous forecast
• 2027E/2028E Global Smartphone Shipments1.17 billion units / 1.182 billion unitsYoY +3%/+1%
• 2026E Global Smartphone Market Value$596 billionYoY +3%, raised 2% from previous forecast
• High-end Phone (>USD 600) 2026-28E Shipment CAGR5%Expected to reach 402 million units in 2028, share 34%
• Foldable Phone 2026E/27E/28E Shipments41 million / 69 million / 80.4 million unitsPenetration 3.6%/5.9%/6.8%
• Mid-range Phone (USD 200-600) 2026-28E Shipment CAGR-2%Market continues to shrink
• Entry-level Phone (<USD 200) 2026-28E Shipment CAGR1%Slowest growth, impacted most by memory price hike

Impact & implications

The report believes the global smartphone market is undergoing a shift from "incremental expansion" to "structural upgrade". For the supply chain, rising memory costs restrain overall demand in short term, but the premiumization trend creates opportunities for manufacturers with technical barriers and brand premium power. As a new form factor, foldables, with more global brands entering and supply chain maturity, are expected to become an important growth point in next stage. Continued shrinkage of mid-range market suggests manufacturers relying solely on value-for-money strategies face greater pressure.

Risks

• Persistently high memory prices may further restrain terminal demand, especially for price-sensitive consumers
• Macroeconomic environment volatility affects consumer purchasing power, especially in emerging markets
• Foldable phone penetration speed may be lower than expected, limited by price, durability, and application scenarios
• Mid-range market shrinks faster than expected, affecting related manufacturer performance

What to watch

• Release rhythm and market response of new foldable phone products from major global brands
• Memory price trends and cost transmission situation
• Penetration differences of premiumization trend in different regional markets
• Performance of brands newly entering foldable market in second half of 2026