The decline in contracted sales value of Chinese developers widened again in June
AI summary card
The decline in contracted sales value of Chinese developers widened again in June
Nomura noted that China's high-frequency real estate data weakened in June, with the year-over-year contracted sales value of the top 100 developers falling to -9.6%, and downward pressure on housing prices rising further.
- The top 100 developers' contracted sales value in June was -9.6% year over year, significantly weaker than -0.2% in May.
- Contracted sales area in June was -13.7% year over year, basically flat versus -13.8% in May.
- The year-over-year growth in new home sales area across 20 major cities fell from 0.0% in May to -5.8% in June.
- The year-over-year growth in existing home transaction volume across 18 major cities fell from 17.5% in May to 11.1% in June.
- Existing home prices in tier-1 cities showed some signs of stabilization, especially in Shanghai, but housing price declines widened in most other cities.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report tracks high-frequency data for China's real estate market in June, focusing on contracted sales of the top 100 developers, new home and existing home transactions, and leading indicators of housing prices. Nomura believes that after the pace of decline moderated over the previous three months, the decline in contracted sales value of the top 100 developers widened again in June, while high-frequency housing price indicators showed increased downward pressure on the national average home price.
Core views
The core view is that the recovery of China's real estate market remains fragile. In June, the year-over-year change in sales value for the top 100 developers weakened from -0.2% in May to -9.6%, showing renewed weakening in sales momentum; by sales area, June was -13.7% year over year, basically flat from May but still in deep negative growth. At the city level, growth in both new home and existing home transactions declined from May. On housing prices, tier-1 cities, especially Shanghai, showed signs of stabilization, but price declines widened in most cities. The Iceberg Index showed a 0.4% month-over-month decline in June, further widening from the 0.3% decline in May.
Analysis framework
The report uses a high-frequency real estate data monitoring framework, combining contracted sales of the top 100 developers, new home sales area in key cities, existing home transaction volume in key cities, and a low-price listing index to assess marginal changes in sales momentum and housing price pressure.
Methodology notes
Assess real estate market conditions through developers' contracted sales, city transaction data, and leading housing price indicators.
The report compares monthly, quarterly, and first-half year-over-year growth rates, and combines leading indicators such as the Iceberg Index to evaluate downward pressure on the national average housing price.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- China's real estate marketDirect subject of research
- Strengths
- The year-over-year declines in sales value and sales area narrowed in Q2 compared with Q1, and existing home prices in some tier-1 cities showed signs of stabilization.
- Weaknesses
- The decline in sales value widened again in June, growth in both new home and existing home transactions in major cities weakened from May, and price declines widened in most cities.
- Comparison
- Compared with May, the sales value of the top 100 developers, new home transactions, and existing home transactions all weakened marginally in June; compared with Q1, the overall pace of decline in Q2 still narrowed.
- Risks
- Continued declines in housing prices, weak recovery in transactions, increased pressure on developers' cash flow, and renewed weakening in market expectations.
Key data
- Top 100 developers' June contracted sales value YoY-9.6%May was -0.2%, and the decline widened again in June.
- Top 100 developers' June contracted sales area YoY-13.7%May was -13.8%, basically flat.
- Top 100 developers' Q2 sales value YoY-6.4%Q1 was -23.9%, showing improvement in Q2 versus Q1.
- Top 100 developers' Q2 sales area YoY-13.7%Q1 was -25.0%.
- Top 100 developers' 1H 2026 sales value YoY-14.1%2025 was -19.3%.
- Top 100 developers' 1H 2026 sales area YoY-18.8%2025 was -24.2%.
- June new home sales area YoY in 20 major cities-5.8%May was 0.0%.
- June existing home transaction volume YoY in 18 major cities11.1%May was 17.5%, with growth slowing.
- Iceberg Index month over month in June-0.4%May was -0.3%, indicating greater downward pressure on housing prices.
Impact & implications
The report carries negative implications for China's real estate chain and macro demand. The widening decline in sales value implies that pressure on developers' cash recovery remains, while slower transaction growth weakens signals of market recovery; if downward pressure on housing prices continues to intensify, it may further drag on homebuyer expectations, developers' willingness to invest, and demand across related real estate sectors.
Risks
- The decline in developers' contracted sales value continues to widen.
- Growth in new home sales area and existing home transaction volume slows further.
- Downward pressure on housing prices intensifies in most cities.
- Weak confidence in the real estate market may drag on developers' cash flow and investment activity.
What to watch
- Year-over-year changes in contracted sales value and area of the top 100 developers in July and thereafter.
- Whether new home sales area in 20 major cities continues to weaken.
- Whether growth in existing home transaction volume in 18 major cities continues to fall back.
- Whether the Iceberg Index and other leading housing price indicators show widening national housing price declines.
- Whether stabilization in existing home prices in tier-1 cities, especially Shanghai, can spread to other cities.