U.S. biopharma weekly prescriptions weakened, but new drug launches and key categories remain the core watchpoints
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U.S. biopharma weekly prescriptions weakened, but new drug launches and key categories remain the core watchpoints
Morgan Stanley updated trends in U.S. drug market prescriptions, sales, and launch ramps based on IQVIA data, with a focus on Cobenfy, Yeztugo, Journavx, Icotyde, GLP-1, immunology drugs, and biosimilar penetration.
- For the week ended July 10, 2026, U.S. total market TRx was -5.3% year-over-year, below +9.2% in the prior week; 4-week rolling year-over-year growth was +1.3%, and 12-week rolling year-over-year growth was +1.2%.
- BMY's Cobenfy recorded about 3,300 prescriptions for the week, and the report estimates it would need about 197,000 TRx to reach 2026 consensus expectations.
- GILD's Yeztugo reported about 1,750 total TRx in the latest week, up from about 1,310 in the prior week; the report believes roughly 14% year-over-year growth in the PrEP market and Descovy maintaining over 45% share support expectations beyond 2026.
- VRTX's Journavx recorded about 23,460 prescriptions for the week, and the report uses different gross-to-net discount assumptions to estimate the prescription volume needed to reach 2026 consensus expectations.
- JNJ's Icotyde recorded about 800 prescriptions for the week, up from about 470 in the prior week; the report believes early IQVIA data may underestimate true prescribing momentum.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Morgan Stanley's chart-driven update on the North American biopharma industry, with IQVIA prescription and sales trends as the core data source. The report covers the overall U.S. drug market, key products of major pharma and biotech companies, new drug launch ramps, biosimilar penetration, and therapeutic areas such as diabetes, immunology, cardiovascular, neurology, ophthalmology, and vaccines.
Core views
At the overall market level, U.S. total market weekly TRx year-over-year fell to -5.3% for the week ended July 10, 2026, with short-term prescription momentum clearly weaker than the prior week; however, extended unit TRx (EUTRx) was +5.6% year-over-year, suggesting prescription duration and changes in 90-day prescriptions may mean demand is stronger than indicated by TRx alone. At the product level, Cobenfy, Yeztugo, Journavx, and Icotyde are in the launch validation phase, and whether they can reach 2026 consensus expectations depends on prescription ramping, channel mix, gross-to-net discounts, and IQVIA coverage limitations. In structural areas, the PrEP market, GLP-1, certain immunology drugs, and several biosimilars remain key directions to watch.
Analysis framework
The report uses a bottom-up product prescription tracking approach, combining IQVIA weekly TRx, NRx, EUTRx, and sales data with company-reported sales, market share, launch timelines, and consensus expectations. For new drug launches, the report compares prescription curves with historical launch curves of similar drugs to estimate the prescription path required to achieve future sales expectations; for mature drugs and biosimilars, it evaluates competitive erosion, pricing pressure, and adoption speed through weekly or monthly share changes.
Methodology notes
TRx, NRx, EUTRx, and sales respectively measure prescription volume, new prescriptions, extended unit prescriptions, and sales trends calculated at list price.
The report emphasizes that the IQVIA prescription database and sales database are different; sales reflect drug list prices rather than net prices after rebates or discounts, so pricing and demand judgments need to incorporate gross-to-net discounts.
Compare the prescription curve of a new drug with historical launch curves of similar products.
Cobenfy is compared with antipsychotic launch scales such as Rexulti, Caplyta, and Lybalvi, while Icotyde is compared with psoriasis-related products such as Otezla and Rinvoq, to assess the prescription speed required to achieve 2026 consensus expectations.
Use per-prescription price, channel mix, and gross-to-net discounts to derive the prescription volume required to meet consensus expectations.
Sales validation for Yeztugo, Journavx, and Icotyde depends not only on TRx, but also on channel mix, prescription duration, reimbursement coverage, and discount levels.
Measure biosimilar substitution for originator drugs through TRx share or monthly sales share.
The report tracks multiple biosimilar markets including Actemra, Avastin, Herceptin, Humira, Prolia, Remicade, Rituxan, and Stelara to assess adoption speed and share pressure on originator drugs.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- BMY CobenfyTracking prescription ramp for a new drug launch
- Strengths
- Weekly prescriptions were about 3,300, slightly up from the prior week, and it remains in the launch validation stage.
- Weaknesses
- To reach 2026 consensus expectations, the report estimates about 197,000 TRx are needed, implying a relatively high required ramp speed.
- Comparison
- The report focuses on comparing launch curves with schizophrenia-related products such as Rexulti, Caplyta, and Lybalvi.
- Risks
- Prescription growth slower than expected, net price below assumptions, or insufficient indication penetration could cause revenue to miss consensus expectations.
- GILD Yeztugo and DescovyPrEP market growth and launch curve validation
- Strengths
- Yeztugo weekly total TRx rose from about 1,310 to about 1,750, the PrEP market grew about 14% year-over-year, Descovy maintained over 45% share, and Yeztugo has obtained about 95% payer coverage.
- Weaknesses
- Visibility is limited in the early launch stage, and channel mix and gross-to-net discounts remain the main uncertainties.
- Comparison
- The report compares Yeztugo's TRx launch with Descovy and GSK Apretude.
- Risks
- Channel structure, reimbursement restrictions, prior authorization, or step-edit requirement changes may affect actual sales conversion.
- VRTX JournavxValidation of new acute pain drug prescriptions and revenue expectations
- Strengths
- Weekly prescriptions were about 23,460, continuing to grow from about 22,770 in the prior week.
- Weaknesses
- IQVIA does not capture hospital prescriptions, while the company indicated the hospital/retail mix has an important impact on prescription readings.
- Comparison
- The report estimates the prescriptions needed to meet 2026 consensus expectations using different gross-to-net discount assumptions and a 12-day prescription duration assumption.
- Risks
- Differences in prescription duration, hospital channel share, and gross-to-net discount assumptions may cause IQVIA readings to diverge from actual sales.
- JNJ Icotyde, Stelara, and TremfyaCoexistence of new psoriasis drug launch and biosimilar pressure
- Strengths
- Icotyde weekly prescriptions rose from about 470 to about 800, and early physician feedback suggests it is attractive as an oral IL-23 option; Tremfya weekly TRx still shows strong year-over-year growth.
- Weaknesses
- Early samples and prescription friction for Icotyde may cause IQVIA data to underestimate true demand; Stelara is experiencing clear share erosion from biosimilars.
- Comparison
- Icotyde is compared with launch curves of Otezla, Rinvoq, and recent psoriasis biologics and oral drugs.
- Risks
- Stelara biosimilar substitution, insufficient Icotyde ramp, and payer restrictions may affect JNJ's immunology business performance.
- ABBV Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and HumiraGrowth in the immunology portfolio versus erosion of older products
- Strengths
- Rinvoq and Skyrizi maintained positive TRx year-over-year growth in the key product table, with Rinvoq at 41% weekly year-over-year and Skyrizi at 11%.
- Weaknesses
- Humira weekly TRx year-over-year was -51%, continuing to be affected by biosimilars and lifecycle factors.
- Comparison
- The report analyzes price changes per prescription by dividing quarterly sales by IQVIA TRx across products such as Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Tremfya, Stelara, Dupixent, and Cosentyx.
- Risks
- Intensifying competition in immunology, changes in price/prescription realization, and biosimilar erosion may compress growth quality.
- LLY GLP-1 Product PortfolioCore assets for diabetes and obesity prescription growth
- Strengths
- Prescription volumes for Mounjaro, Zepbound, and the LLY GLP-1 franchise remained high, with Zepbound showing 76% weekly TRx year-over-year growth in the key product table.
- Weaknesses
- Weekly prescriptions may still be affected by channels, supply, and statistical methodology.
- Comparison
- The report also presents prescriptions for Novo and LLY GLP-1 related products, making it easier to observe market share shifts in diabetes and obesity.
- Risks
- Supply constraints, intensifying competition, reimbursement policy, and pricing pressure may affect sustained growth.
Key data
- U.S. Total Market Weekly TRx YoY-5.3%For the week ended July 10, 2026; prior week was +9.2%, and the same week last year was +4.0%.
- U.S. Total Market 4-Week Rolling TRx YoY+1.3%For the week ended July 10, 2026.
- U.S. Total Market 12-Week Rolling TRx YoY+1.2%Used to smooth short-term weekly volatility.
- Weekly EUTRx YoY+5.6%Extended unit prescription trends were stronger than TRx, possibly reflecting longer prescription cycles.
- BMY Cobenfy Weekly Prescriptionsabout 3,300Prior week was about 3,220; reaching 2026 consensus expectations is estimated to require about 197,000 TRx.
- GILD Yeztugo Weekly Total TRxabout 1,750Prior week was about 1,310; injectable formulation TRx was about 1,030 versus about 750 in the prior week.
- Yeztugo 2026 Morgan Stanley U.S. Sales Estimate$1,148mnThe report lists the global estimate at $1,155mn, versus Visible Alpha consensus of $999mn for the U.S. and $1,059mn globally.
- VRTX Journavx Weekly Prescriptionsabout 23,460Prior week was about 22,770; hospital prescriptions not captured by IQVIA are an important limitation.
- JNJ Icotyde Weekly Prescriptionsabout 800Prior week was about 470; the company previously mentioned that about 1,500 patients had received prescriptions.
- TRx Required for Icotyde to Reach 2026 U.S. Consensus Expectationsabout 33,000 to 43,000Based on a list price of $8,285/month and gross-to-net discount assumptions of 0% to 25%.
- Latest Week Share of Stelara BiosimilarsYesintek about 78%, Wezlana about 18%The report updates TRx share and sales charts for JNJ Stelara biosimilars.
- Latest Week TRx Share of Prolia BiosimilarsJubbonti about 25%, Stoboclo about 12%, originator Prolia about 56%Used to observe share changes for AMGN Prolia after facing biosimilars.
Impact & implications
The main investment implication of the report is that short-term volatility in the total market's prescriptions is weak, so demand trends should not be judged solely on a single week's TRx; early-stage prescription ramps for new drugs, reimbursement coverage, channel structure, and IQVIA capture limitations can materially affect revenue validation; and biosimilars are rapidly gaining share in some categories, which may continue to pressure originator drug sales and price realization. For portfolios, GLP-1, PrEP, and certain immunology drugs still show structural growth, while products with high patent-cliff or biosimilar exposure require more cautious tracking.
Risks
- The IQVIA prescription and sales databases use different methodologies, and sales are based on list price and do not reflect rebates and discounts.
- Some products have contractual data limitations, meaning prescriptions or sales volumes may not fully reflect true demand.
- Single-week TRx can be highly volatile and may be affected by calendar effects, channels, and prescription duration, so 4-week and 12-week rolling data should also be considered.
- Visibility is limited in the early stage of new drug launches, and prescription ramping, payer coverage, prior authorization, and channel structure may all change the path of revenue realization.
- If biosimilar adoption is faster than expected, it may depress originator drug share and net pricing.
What to watch
- Whether U.S. total market TRx recovers from the -5.3% weekly year-over-year decline over the coming weeks, and whether the divergence between EUTRx and TRx persists.
- Whether Cobenfy weekly prescriptions move toward the trajectory required to meet 2026 consensus expectations.
- Changes in Yeztugo injectable prescriptions, PrEP market growth, payer coverage, and channel mix.
- The gap between hospital channel prescriptions not captured for Journavx and retail IQVIA prescriptions.
- Icotyde's actual prescription conversion after the sample period, physician feedback, and relative performance versus Otezla/Rinvoq curves.
- Share changes in biosimilars for Stelara, Prolia, Humira, Remicade, and others.
- Prescription share, supply, and reimbursement changes between LLY and Novo products in the GLP-1 market.