Negative Factors Are Largely Priced In; Wind Turbine Order Recovery and Valuation Re-rating Support Buy Ratings on A/H-shares
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Negative Factors Are Largely Priced In; Wind Turbine Order Recovery and Valuation Re-rating Support Buy Ratings on A/H-shares
HSBC maintains its Buy rating on Goldwind's H-shares and upgrades its A-shares to Buy, believing that stabilizing electricity prices and a tender recovery in the second half of 2026 will offset short-term delivery and cost pressures.
- The H-share target price is maintained at HKD16.50, implying 53.8% potential upside; the A-share target price is maintained at CNY26.30, implying 30.5% potential upside.
- Domestic wind turbine tenders totaled 30GW in the first half of 2026, down 56% year over year, but monthly tenders increased by more than 11GW in July, showing signs of demand improvement.
- Second-quarter 2026 net profit is expected to be RMB1.3 billion, up 41% year over year, with the risk of overseas delivery delays already incorporated into the forecast.
- Overseas backlog stood at 9.6GW at the end of the first quarter of 2026, and the company secured another 1.4GW of overseas orders in the first half of 2026, mainly from Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
- The A-shares trade at a 2027E P/E of 17.4x, 0.6 standard deviations below the five-year historical forward average; the H-shares trade at 8.0x, 0.9 standard deviations below the historical average.
Report interpretation
Overview
The report argues that since the release of Goldwind's first-quarter 2026 results, its A/H-shares have fallen 38% and 27%, respectively, and the market has largely digested factors such as second-quarter earnings pressure, weak domestic tenders, the EU trade investigation, and cooling sentiment toward the commercial aerospace theme. With signs of stabilization in renewable energy electricity prices, a rebound in wind turbine tenders in July, and continued growth in overseas orders, developers' investment confidence and the company's order momentum are expected to improve in the second half of 2026. HSBC maintains its 2026-2028 earnings forecasts and A/H-share target prices unchanged, and upgrades the A-shares to Buy based on valuation attractiveness.
Core views
First, the recent share price correction mainly reflects adverse exchange rates, higher logistics costs, and possible overseas delivery delays caused by the Middle East conflict, with the related second-quarter risks already incorporated into earnings expectations. Second, domestic wind turbine tenders slowed markedly in the first half, but tender prices remained resilient, July order volumes rebounded, and electricity prices are stabilizing, which is favorable for a demand recovery in the second half. Third, although the 15th Five-Year energy plan does not set hard targets for new onshore wind and solar capacity additions, the 2030 targets for renewable energy capacity and power generation share still point to substantial long-term construction demand. Fourth, the company has limited exposure to the EU end market, and its overseas orders mainly come from emerging markets, which can partially buffer the impact of trade investigations. Fifth, A/H-share valuations are both below their respective historical forward P/E averages, and combined with an expected 32% earnings CAGR from 2025 to 2028, the risk-reward profile has improved.
Analysis framework
The report evaluates the company's short-term delivery risks and medium-term demand trends by combining domestic wind turbine tender volumes and tender prices, electricity prices, the 15th Five-Year energy plan, overseas order structure, and progress in trade investigations; on earnings, it estimates second-quarter 2026 and 2026-2028 results, while on valuation it continues to use DCF to determine target prices and validates valuation attractiveness using historical forward P/E ratios and standard deviation positioning.
Methodology notes
Discounted cash flow valuation
HSBC continues to use DCF to assess the value of Goldwind's A/H-shares and maintains target prices of HKD16.50 for the H-shares and CNY26.30 for the A-shares. The report does not disclose specific discount rate or terminal value assumptions in the provided content.
Compare the current forward P/E with the five-year historical average and standard deviation range
Based on 2027E earnings, the H-shares trade at 8.0x P/E, 0.9 standard deviations below the five-year historical forward average; the A-shares trade at 17.4x, 0.6 standard deviations below the historical average.
Use tender, electricity price, installation, and order data to assess revenue and profit trends
The report assesses operating trends through the recovery in domestic tenders, overseas backlog, delivery pace, and cost changes, and forecasts second-quarter 2026 net profit after considering potential overseas delivery delays.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Goldwind-H（2208.HK）Directly covered H-share target
- Strengths
- Relatively high overseas order reserves, a 2027E P/E of only 8.0x, and a target price implying 53.8% potential upside.
- Weaknesses
- The overseas business is more vulnerable to exchange rates, logistics costs, and delivery delays caused by the Middle East conflict.
- Comparison
- Valuation is 0.9 standard deviations below its five-year historical forward P/E average, with a larger discount than the A-shares.
- Risks
- Overseas deliveries falling short of expectations, escalation of trade investigations, and continued cost pressure.
- Goldwind-A（002202.SZ）Directly covered A-share target
- Strengths
- Expected earnings CAGR of 32% from 2025 to 2028, a rebound in wind turbine orders in the second half could serve as a catalyst, and the rating has been upgraded to Buy.
- Weaknesses
- 2027E P/E of 17.4x, an absolute valuation higher than the H-shares, and the recent share price is relatively sensitive to changes in domestic demand and thematic sentiment.
- Comparison
- Valuation is 0.6 standard deviations below its five-year historical forward P/E average, and the target price implies 30.5% potential upside.
- Risks
- Domestic tender recovery slower than expected, renewed weakness in electricity prices, and insufficient market valuation re-rating.
- China wind power equipment industry chainMain industry driver of the company's orders and earnings
- Strengths
- Stabilizing electricity prices, the July tender rebound, and the 2030 renewable energy targets support medium- to long-term demand.
- Weaknesses
- The 15th Five-Year Plan did not provide hard targets for new onshore wind capacity additions, and tender volumes fell markedly year over year in the first half.
- Comparison
- In the current environment, the return visibility of wind power projects is considered better than that of solar projects.
- Risks
- Project approval delays, offshore wind construction falling short of expectations, and slow recovery in developers' investment confidence.
Key data
- Recent A/H-share declineA-shares -38%；H-shares -27%Decline since the release of first-quarter 2026 results; over the same period, the CSI 300 fell 3% and the HSCEI fell 1%.
- Domestic wind turbine tenders in 1H 202630GW, YoY -56%Major state-owned developers were still refining their 15th Five-Year Plan, resulting in weak tender activity in the first half.
- Tender improvement in July 2026Monthly increase of more than 11GWData as of July 21, 2026 already showed a recovery in wind turbine tender momentum.
- Overseas backlog9.6GWAs of the end of the first quarter of 2026, orders mainly came from emerging markets, with limited exposure to the EU end market.
- New overseas orders in 1H 20261.4GWMainly from Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
- Second-quarter 2026 net profit forecastRMB1.3 billion, YoY +41%The forecast has considered the impact of possible overseas delivery delays.
- HSBC net profit forecasts2026 RMB3.287 billion；2027 RMB4.894 billion；2028 RMB5.838 billionThe report maintains its 2026-2028 earnings forecasts unchanged.
- 2025-2028 earnings CAGR32%An important support for the A-share rating upgrade and valuation attractiveness.
- National offshore wind power new installation forecast2026 8GW；2027 12GW；2028 15GWHSBC lowered its 2027-2028 offshore wind forecasts by 21% to 25%, while onshore wind forecasts are basically unchanged.
- 15th Five-Year Plan renewable energy targets50% of total installed capacity and 30% of total power generation by 2030Based on this, the report infers that annual new energy construction may exceed 300GW.
- H-share valuation and target price2027E P/E 8.0x；target price HKD16.50Valuation is 0.9 standard deviations below the five-year historical forward average, implying 53.8% potential upside versus the current price of HKD10.73.
- A-share valuation and target price2027E P/E 17.4x；target price CNY26.30Valuation is 0.6 standard deviations below the five-year historical forward average, implying 30.5% potential upside versus the current price of CNY20.16.
Impact & implications
If electricity price stability continues to improve visibility on renewable energy project returns, domestic wind turbine tenders are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026, driving a recovery in Goldwind's orders and earnings expectations. Overseas orders are mainly from emerging markets, which can reduce the direct impact of the EU investigation, but short-term revenue recognition still depends on logistics, exchange rates, and delivery progress. The unchanged target prices mean this A-share rating upgrade mainly reflects valuation improvement after the share price decline, rather than upward revisions to earnings forecasts.
Risks
- Adverse exchange rates, rising logistics costs, and the Middle East conflict may cause overseas delivery delays and weigh on short-term earnings.
- Domestic wind turbine tender recovery slower than expected, or renewed weakness in renewable energy electricity prices, could affect developers' willingness to invest.
- The EU foreign subsidies investigation and other trade disputes may restrict overseas market expansion, although the company's current EU exposure is limited.
- Offshore wind project approvals and construction progress may fall short of expectations; HSBC has lowered its 2027-2028 new installation forecasts by 21% to 25%.
- Actual second-quarter cost and delivery performance weaker than expected may lead to downward revisions to full-year shipment targets or earnings forecasts.
- Uncertainty remains around the listing of LandSpace and the advancement of green methanol investments, and related potential gains may not materialize as expected.
What to watch
- Second-quarter 2026 results and management updates on full-year shipment targets, overseas deliveries, and cost trends.
- Monthly domestic wind turbine tender volumes, tender prices, and order conversion pace in the second half of 2026.
- Stability of renewable energy electricity prices and changes in wind power project returns.
- Execution progress of the 9.6GW overseas backlog, as well as new orders from Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
- Follow-up developments in the EU foreign subsidies investigation and other trade disputes.
- Investment gains from green methanol investment expansion and a potential LandSpace listing.