China restaurants slowed in the March off-season, but holidays and brand dispersion still provided support

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' monthly high-frequency tracker for the China restaurant sector, with a focus on updating March off-season operating performance, same-store sales growth, store openings and closures, the competitive environment, delivery subsidy changes, and major company news. The report covers Haidilao, Guming, Jiumaojiu, Gourmet Master, Yum China, Mixue, Naixue and other restaurant and freshly made beverage-related companies, with entity recognition focused on Haidilao 6862.HK.

Core views

The core view is that the restaurant industry slowed overall in March after the Lunar New Year peak season, but it was not a broad-based weakening. Haidilao, YUMC, and freshly made beverage brands cooled versus January-February; Guming and Cha Bai Dao still maintained relatively strong growth but at a slower pace than during the holiday period; Naixue's average single-store sales turned to a slight negative. By contrast, Tai Er's low-double-digit March same-store sales growth did not slow, and it accelerated further during Qingming. Goldman Sachs believes that more holiday arrangements and the rollout of student spring breaks may act as tailwinds for traffic and dining demand.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly high-frequency tracking approach, combining brand channel checks, same-store sales growth, single-store GMV, table-turn rates, store openings and closures, promotional activity, delivery subsidy changes, air travel, and commodity inflation to assess dining demand and the competitive environment. Company-level analysis then combines brand performance with Goldman Sachs' views to judge whether operating trends are in line with expectations and whether there is marginal improvement or pressure.

Methodology notes

• operating high-frequency trackingSSSG tracker

  same-store sales growth

  Year-on-year changes in comparable-store sales are used to observe brand demand strength and seasonality; this report specifically compares March with the combined January-February Lunar New Year peak period.

• restaurant operating metricstable turn and recovery level

  table turns and recovery versus 2019

  Table-turn counts and the degree of recovery versus 2019 are used to judge restaurant traffic and operating efficiency; Haidilao's March table turns were about 3.6x, recovering to the high-80% range of 2019 levels.

• brand competition trackingpromotion and delivery subsidy tracker

  promotion and delivery subsidy tracking

  Tracks platform subsidies, brand discounts, upsized cups, and price changes across delivery and dine-in channels to assess competitive intensity and pressure on unit economics.

• valuation disclosure frameworkGS Factor Profile

  growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile

  Goldman Sachs' disclosed factor framework compares stocks with the market and industry peers based on growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Haidilao International Holding 6862.HK

  The report focuses on this company; rating is Neutral

  Strengths

  March recovery remained better than 4Q25, and sequential quarterly improvement continued; the chairman's plan to accumulate at least HK$100mn of shares may support market confidence.

  Weaknesses

  March table turns and the recovery versus 2019 slowed compared with January-February, and cultivation of new brands may continue to weigh on margins.

  Comparison

  March performance was in line with the broader off-season slowdown, weaker than the more-than-90% recovery level during the Lunar New Year period, but better than 4Q25.

  Risks

  Traffic recovery falls short of expectations, store adjustment is ineffective, investment in new brands weighs on margins, and the off-season persists.

• Guming Holdings Ltd. 1364.HK

  Peer comparison company; rating is Buy, on CL

  Strengths

  March single-store GMV grew in the high-single digits, the Qingming trend continued, new products were successful, and feedback on coffee SKUs was positive.

  Weaknesses

  Growth slowed from the double-digit pace in January-February, and the delivery mix declined sequentially.

  Comparison

  Performance was relatively stronger than Naixue among freshly made beverage brands, but faces a high base after last year's delivery subsidy rollout.

  Risks

  High base pressure from late April to May, normalization of delivery subsidies, fading product popularity, and renewed competition.

• Jiumaojiu 9922.HK

  Peer comparison company; rating is Buy

  Strengths

  Tai Er delivered low-double-digit same-store sales growth in China in March, accelerated further during Qingming, and consumers embraced its fresh-format products and stores.

  Weaknesses

  Same-store sales for Jiumaojiu and Song brands still declined year on year, and overseas business may weigh on overall same-store sales.

  Comparison

  Tai Er clearly outperformed the broader March market weakness, and 1Q26 same-store sales were in line with Goldman Sachs' high-single-digit forecast.

  Risks

  Brand dispersion, overseas drag, the fading of low base effects, and volatile consumer demand.

• Gourmet Master Co. 2723.TW

  Peer comparison company; rating is Neutral

  Strengths

  US same-store sales improved sequentially after weather disruptions, management expects 2Q openings to accelerate versus March, and margin improvement is possible after network optimization.

  Weaknesses

  ML China sales fell 47% yoy in March, store count dropped to just below 300, and the business remains in significant contraction.

  Comparison

  Around 40% yoy sales decline in 1Q26 was broadly in line with Goldman Sachs' expectations, but China remains under much greater pressure than some local brands.

  Risks

  Continued contraction in China stores, execution risk in the franchise transition, weaker-than-expected US openings, and slower-than-expected margin improvement.

• China restaurant and freshly made drink sector

  Industry theme of the report

  Strengths

  Key restaurant companies still grew 3.9% yoy during Qingming, outperforming overall retail/catering; more holiday arrangements may support traffic.

  Weaknesses

  During the March off-season, most brands' same-store sales growth slowed versus January-February, and some brands such as Naixue saw average single-store sales turn slightly negative.

  Comparison

  Brand dispersion is intensifying, with brands focused on product innovation and store-format upgrades outperforming those relying on subsidies or undergoing network adjustments.

  Risks

  High base from delivery subsidies, regulatory push for more rational platform competition, fading promotions, and uneven consumer recovery.

Key data

• Report date2026-04-12 12:21PM HKTPublication time of the Goldman Sachs equity research report.
• Qingming holiday growth for key restaurant companies3.9% yoyYear-on-year growth for key restaurant companies during April 4 to April 6, 2026, outperforming overall retail/catering growth of 2.4%.
• January-February restaurant retail sales growth4.8% yoyUsed in the report to compare Qingming holiday demand with the post-March off-season period.
• Haidilao March table-turn rateabout 3.6xCorresponds to recovery to the high-80% range versus 2019, below the more-than-90% recovery level in January-February.
• Haidilao March store changesOpened 4 self-operated stores and 2 franchised stores; closed 10 self-operated storesReflects continued adjustment of the store network.
• Haidilao chairman share accumulation planat least HK$100mnZhang Yong plans to increase holdings in the open market using internal funds within 12 months.
• Guming March single-store GMV growthHSD%The Qingming trend continued, and feedback on the new coffee SKU Vanilla Bean Vienna was positive.
• Tai Er March same-store sales growth in Chinalow teens%Accelerated further during Qingming versus March, and same-store sales for the old-store format also reached HSD% yoy.
• Gourmet Master ML China March sales decline47% yoyStore count fell to just below 300, implying a year-on-year decline of more than 30%.
• Manner Coffee price changeSOE coffee raised by Rmb5/cupThe company said this was due to using better coffee beans, while prices for other products remained unchanged.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, the March data confirms that restaurant demand cooled normally after the Lunar New Year, but leading brands, product innovation, and holiday traffic still create dispersion. For Haidilao under a Neutral rating, the pace of recovery slowed but sequential quarterly improvement continues, and the share accumulation plan should help sentiment; Guming and Tai Er are showing stronger brand and product momentum. Looking ahead, if the delivery subsidy base rises, promotions normalize, and demand does not deteriorate materially, the market may focus more on brand-level product iteration, store quality, and the resilience of unit economics.

Risks

• If the March off-season slowdown persists, it may weaken expectations for 1Q26 and 2Q26 revenue recovery for restaurant companies.
• The high base from last year's delivery subsidy rollout may suppress same-store sales growth for freshly made beverage brands from late April to May.
• Normalization of platform subsidies and regulators' push for rational competition may reduce short-term order stimulation while changing the mix between delivery and dine-in.
• Coffee and freshly made beverages still face risks from upsized drinks, promotions, and price competition, which may pressure unit economics.
• Cultivating new brands at companies such as Haidilao may weigh on margins, and the effectiveness of store opening and closure adjustments still needs to be observed.

What to watch

• Same-store sales and single-store GMV performance for freshly made beverage brands under the high delivery-subsidy base from late April to May.
• The extent to which the May Day holiday, student spring breaks, and other holiday arrangements support restaurant traffic and demand.
• Haidilao's table-turn rate, recovery versus 2019, and the margin drag from new brands.
• Whether Guming's new products and category expansion can continue to offset high base pressure.
• Whether Tai Er's new store format, ingredient freshness upgrades, and menu diversification can sustain same-store sales.
• Whether platform delivery subsidies, regulatory attitudes, and brand promotion strategies continue to normalize.