U.S. summer travel intentions remain strong, while AI travel planning and OTA usage continue to rise

Overview

This report is based on BofA's April 2026 online travel survey of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers aged 18 and over, assessing summer travel intentions, OTA usage, AI travel planning, loyalty programs, alternative accommodation, and corporate travel platform adoption. The survey was conducted during a period of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, so the results are used to assess whether consumer travel demand remains resilient despite negative headlines.

Core views

The main conclusion is that U.S. travel demand remains healthy and improved y/y. Travel intentions for the next 12 months increased, plans for the 2026 summer season remain strong, overall OTA usage improved, and adoption of AI in travel planning accelerated materially. The report sees these data as positive for U.S. summer travel activity; because Expedia's business mix is more U.S.-centric, it is the biggest beneficiary, followed by Airbnb, while Booking also made progress on some share metrics. At the same time, lower Vrbo usage at Expedia and a slight decline in Airbnb's share as the most-used alternative accommodation site mean the company-level picture is not uniformly positive.

Analysis framework

The report uses a consumer questionnaire, comparing the 1Q26 survey with 1Q25 and selected historical surveys to assess travel frequency intentions, summer travel plans, price sensitivity, changes in OTA site usage, AI tool usage, alternative accommodation preferences, loyalty programs, and corporate travel platform adoption, then maps the findings to the operating implications for Booking, Expedia, Airbnb, and related companies.

Methodology notes

• Consumer SurveySpring Online Travel Survey

  Online questionnaire of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers aged 18 and over

  The sample is used to measure OTA usage, travel intentions, and platform preferences; the report notes that the 1Q26 sample skewed higher income than 1Q25, with fewer respondents earning below US$50k and more households above US$100k, which may affect the results.

• Year-over-Year Comparison1Q26 vs 1Q25 Survey Comparison

  Compare the current survey with the same survey from the prior year

  Used to determine whether travel intentions, AI usage, OTA usage, alternative accommodation preferences, and loyalty program adoption improved.

• Valuation MethodPrice Objective Basis

  Target prices are based on methods such as EV/EBITDA, P/E, FCF, or sum-of-the-parts valuation

  ABNB's target price is based on a 2027E EBITDA multiple; BKNG's target price is based on a 2027E EPS multiple; EXPE's target price is based on a 50/50 blend of P/E and sum-of-the-parts valuation.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• EXPEDIA GROUP INC (US.EXPE)

  Online travel agency and Vrbo alternative accommodation platform; the report sees strong U.S. travel activity as the most constructive for it.

  Strengths

  Expedia usage increased, lodging search improved, and its U.S. business mix is relatively high; the disclosed target price is US$310.

  Weaknesses

  Vrbo usage within alternative accommodation sites declined in the survey, making the conclusions mixed at the company level.

  Comparison

  Versus Booking, the valuation multiple discount reflects market share trends; versus Airbnb, its U.S. exposure is higher.

  Risks

  High ticket prices weighing on bookings, market-share shifts, alternative-accommodation competition, and migration of discovery toward AI entry points.

• BOOKING HOLDINGS INC (US.BKNG)

  Global OTA and Booking.com platform; the survey shows progress in travel starting point, loyalty, and alternative accommodation share.

  Strengths

  Booking Genius membership rose from 13% to 28%; usage of alternative accommodation sites rose from 20% to 26%; earnings quality, share gains, and free cash flow are used to support the valuation premium.

  Weaknesses

  The report still notes that overall bookings may be sensitive to short-term ticket prices; parts of the data are affected by sample composition.

  Comparison

  It still trails Airbnb's 33% as the most-used alternative accommodation site, but its y/y gain was more pronounced.

  Risks

  Rising travel prices, OTA competition, search-entry shifts toward Google or AI agents, and multiple compression.

• AIRBNB INC (US.ABNB)

  Alternative accommodation and short-term rental platform, benefiting from stronger consumer acceptance of alternative accommodation.

  Strengths

  36% of respondents are willing to stay in someone else's home, up from 23% in 1Q25; 30% say they have already listed a home on an AA site, up from 13%; the company has direct traffic and category leadership.

  Weaknesses

  Its share as the most-used alternative accommodation site fell from 35% to 33%; experience and activity bookings were less popular than in 1Q25.

  Comparison

  It is still the most-used alternative accommodation site, but Booking is catching up; the report sees strong U.S. travel as more positive for Expedia than for Airbnb.

  Risks

  Regulatory restrictions, higher marketing spend from intensifying competition, slower nights growth, and multiple compression.

• Alphabet / Google (GOOGL US, GOOG US)

  Travel search and planning entry point.

  Strengths

  42% of respondents say their use of Google as a starting point for travel planning increased.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide independent financial forecasts for Google's travel business.

  Comparison

  Growth in the Google entry point may divert users away from going directly into OTA apps.

  Risks

  Competition in vertical travel search, AI agents changing search paths, and the regulatory backdrop.

• Uber (UBER US)

  Ground transportation preference during travel.

  Strengths

  47% of respondents prefer using Uber while traveling, up from 32% in 1Q25.

  Weaknesses

  The report mainly focuses on travel platforms and does not expand on Uber valuation or ratings.

  Comparison

  Car-rental preference fell to 32%, and the Lyft-related chart shows a y/y decline.

  Risks

  Ground transportation competition, price sensitivity, and fluctuations in travel demand.

Key data

• 12-Month Travel Intent47% expect travel frequency above normal over the next 12 months, vs 43% in 1Q25Indicates y/y improvement in overall travel demand.
• 2026 Summer Travel Plan81% plan to travel the same as or more than in 2025, with about 30% planning significantly moreThe share planning significantly more is above roughly 20% last year.
• Generative AI Travel Planning44% have used ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude to plan travel, vs 18% in 1Q25About 60% have already used or plan to use related AI tools.
• OTA Built-In AI Chatbots40% have used Booking or Expedia chatbots, vs 26% in 1Q25The share that has used or plans to use them is close to 60%, but adoption is slightly slower than standalone generative AI.
• AI Agent Auto-Books Travel38% would be willing to use it now, 30% are interested but not yet comfortable, 32% would not use itReflects early adoption alongside a trust hurdle.
• Booking Genius Loyalty28% are Booking Genius members, vs 13% in the prior surveyAdoption of Booking's loyalty program improved materially.
• Expedia One Key Loyalty22%, vs 21% in 1Q25A slight y/y improvement.
• OTA Usage ChangeUsage improved y/y across all OTAs, with Airbnb and Booking.com showing the largest gainsThe share reducing or stopping OTA usage was also lower than in the prior survey.
• Google as Travel Starting Point42% say their use of Google as a starting point increased, vs 25% in the prior surveySearch-entry competition still affects OTA traffic acquisition.
• Business Travel Platform55% travel on business rarely or never; 45% travel for business weekly, monthly, or quarterly29% of companies require a managed platform, 30% have no formal platform, and 24% are unsure.
• Ground Transportation PreferencePreference for Uber rose to 47%, vs 32% in 1Q25; car rental fell to 32%, vs 38% in 1Q25The Lyft-related chart title also shows a y/y decline.
• Alternative Accommodation Supply and Demand36% are willing to stay in someone else's home, vs 23% in 1Q25; 30% have already listed a home on an AA site, vs 13% in 1Q25Penetration and willingness to supply alternative accommodation improved.
• Alternative Accommodation Site ShareAirbnb at 33%, down from 35% in 1Q25; Booking at 26%, up from 20%; Vrbo at 11%Airbnb still leads, but Booking is catching up.

Impact & implications

The survey results point to continued resilience in U.S. travel activity in 2026, with a constructive demand backdrop for online travel platforms. Rapid penetration of AI travel planning may change search, discovery, and booking entry points, favoring platforms with AI product capabilities and direct traffic advantages. Price remains the most important booking factor, so if airfares or travel prices continue to rise, some trips could be delayed or constrained. At the company level, Expedia benefits most directly because of its higher U.S. exposure and improving lodging search; Airbnb benefits from stronger acceptance of alternative accommodation but shows mixed share signals; Booking has positive signs from loyalty and alternative-accommodation share improvements.

Risks

• The survey sample was higher income and slightly older than 1Q25, which may overstate travel intentions and spending resilience.
• If airfares or overall travel prices rise y/y, respondents may delay or limit travel activity.
• Although tensions in the Middle East did not materially suppress intentions in this survey, they could still affect international travel sentiment and booking cadence.
• Google, standalone generative AI, and AI agents may change the travel-planning entry point and weaken traditional OTA direct traffic.
• Expedia's lower Vrbo usage and Airbnb's slight decline in share as the most-used alternative accommodation site indicate that platform share competition remains unsettled.
• The alternative accommodation industry faces risks from regulatory restrictions, intensifying competition, and slower growth after penetration increases.

What to watch

• Actual 2026 summer bookings, cancellation rates, and ticket-price changes.
• The real conversion rates of AI chatbots and standalone AI tools within OTA platforms.
• Whether further growth in Google as a travel-planning starting point continues to erode OTA direct traffic.
• Membership growth and repeat-booking contribution from loyalty programs such as Booking Genius and Expedia One Key.
• Share changes among Airbnb, Booking, and Vrbo in alternative accommodation.
• The impact of U.S. consumer income mix and price sensitivity on summer travel demand.
• Adoption rates of managed business travel platforms and share shifts at Amex GBT, Navan, and similar platforms.