The 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games showed a significant broadening of use cases, with autonomous operation and system reliability becoming higher barriers

Overview

The report summarizes the World Humanoid Robot Games held in Beijing from August 22 to 26, 2026. Its core conclusion is that the competition is shifting from sports and entertainment demonstrations toward validation of usable capabilities and commercial scenarios, while stricter fully autonomous rules raise requirements for perception, decision-making, motion control, and whole-machine reliability. Goldman Sachs uses this to discuss progress in China's humanoid robot industry and maintains differentiated ratings on eight covered stocks based on commercialization pace, competitive advantages, valuation, and earnings prospects.

Core views

First, the scale of the competition and international participation increased significantly. The 2026 WHRG featured 666 teams and 2,056 humanoid robots from 16 countries, with participation approximately 4 times the 2025 level; China contributed 1,975 robots and 641 teams. Goldman Sachs believes the more important change than participant numbers was the clear shift in event design toward practical applications: real-world application events increased from 6 to 21, scenarios expanded from 4 categories to 11, and their share of all events rose from 23% to 41%, with a new dexterous-hand category emphasizing fine manipulation. Applications also expanded from traditional industrial and logistics settings to retail, food service, household services, firefighting, offices, and school libraries. Six scenario events were held directly in real environments such as hotel rooms, firefighting facilities, and school libraries, while many others used 1:1 scenario replicas. Tasks were upgraded from isolated actions to multi-step workflows, making the competition more similar to tests of structured commercial deployment rather than merely demonstrations of athletic or entertainment capabilities. Second, rule changes significantly raised the bar for autonomous capabilities and system reliability. Most competitive events required fully autonomous operation; in scenario events, fully autonomous operation had a scoring coefficient of 1.0, versus only 0.5 for remote control. Time limits for running events also became stricter; for example, the 100-meter time limit was shortened from 3 minutes to 1 minute. The report believes these rules collectively raised requirements for motion control, perception, decision-making, task execution, endurance, thermal management, and whole-machine reliability, distinguishing robots with stronger autonomous closed-loop capabilities from products that can complete tasks only with human intervention. Third, competition results showed continued improvement in Chinese manufacturers' motion-control and whole-machine capabilities. Directly comparable events included the 100 meters, 400 meters, 1,500 meters, 4×100-meter relay, standing long jump, and standing high jump; the 2026 100-meter obstacle race could not be directly compared with 2025 because stairs, narrow passages, and uneven terrain were newly added. The winning 400-meter time improved by approximately 57% year over year to 38.15 seconds, while winning results in jumping events also improved significantly from the prior year. Goldman Sachs views these results as evidence of continued progress in the humanoid robot “cerebellum” layer of motion control and notes that newly added events such as weightlifting further tested load-bearing manipulation and stability, providing a reference for future industrial applications. In medal standings, AgiBot ranked first overall with 18 gold, 16 silver, and 12 bronze medals, for a total of 46, followed closely by Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center with 15 gold, 12 silver, and 18 bronze medals, for a total of 45. AgiBot won 12 gold, 10 silver, and 8 bronze medals in real-world application events, including 5 golds in service tasks and 7 in dexterous-hand events, while Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center won 12 gold, 9 silver, and 9 bronze medals in competitive events. The report also emphasizes that medal performance may reflect engineering resource allocation and pre-competition preparation and is influenced by participant composition and event selection; therefore, it does not rule out companies outside the rankings possessing competitive underlying capabilities. Among covered companies, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Inovance Technology. The company's shares of China's inverter and servo markets reached 25% and 33%, respectively, in 2025, ranking first in both, while overseas markets still offer room for expansion. Increased shares in small and large PLCs could form the foundation for extending into digitalization and IoT solutions, while new energy vehicle components are also expected to continue increasing their revenue contribution on the back of industry growth. The report views high R&D efficiency, a relatively high new-product success rate, a comprehensive product portfolio, and broad end-market coverage as its primary moats, as these capabilities can increase customer switching costs and strengthen resilience through cycles. The stock's valuation is approximately in line with its historical average multiple, while its long-term growth and return profile remains solid. The 12-month target price is Rmb92.90, based on 35 times 2027E P/E and a 9.5% cost of equity; the report's listed price is Rmb61.90. Goldman Sachs also maintains a Buy rating on Shuanghuan Driveline. The company is one of China's large gear manufacturers and one of the few enterprises capable of producing high-precision gears. The report forecasts an 18% CAGR in new energy vehicle gear revenue during 2026-30E, driven by higher content per vehicle from increasing coaxial gearbox penetration and rising market share outside China; smart transmission gear revenue is expected to achieve a 27% CAGR over the same period, with applications expanding from robotic vacuum cleaners to e-bikes and smart vehicles. The company is also developing robot reducers and collaborating with more industrial and humanoid robot OEMs on new designs. The report forecasts CAGRs of 15% and 16% for total company revenue and net profit, respectively, during 2026-30E, with improved internal operating efficiency expected to offset lower margins at its Hungarian and potential Vietnamese plants. Better-than-expected margins and operating resilience support the Buy view. The 12-month target price of Rmb45.50 is based on 25 times 2027E P/E; the report's listed price is Rmb35.60. Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Leader Harmonious Drive Systems. The report is positive on the potential expansion of the harmonic reducer market as applications broaden across industrial robots, collaborative robots, humanoid and service robots, CNC machine tools, photovoltaics, semiconductor equipment, healthcare, and aerospace. The company is also upgrading from standalone reducers to higher-value modules integrating motors, encoders, and sensors, and since 2024 has supplied in volume to the China factories of at least two of the four major international robot brands. Revenue contributions from overseas customers could rise over the coming years. However, the report believes the current valuation already prices in substantial long-term humanoid robot growth expectations, leaving the risk-reward relatively balanced. The 12-month target price is Rmb186.7, using 50 times 2030E P/E and discounted to 2027E at an 11.5% cost of equity; the report's listed price is Rmb292.87. For Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Goldman Sachs is positive on its global leadership in core HVAC controls and thermal-management businesses, as well as long-term incremental growth from humanoid robot actuators, forecasting 2025-30E revenue and net profit CAGRs of 16% and 17%, respectively. HVAC component revenue is expected to outperform the residential air-conditioning industry through higher commercial air-conditioning market share and growing sensor volumes; new energy vehicle thermal management should benefit from continued increases in global EV penetration and moderate growth in content per vehicle. The report believes the company is likely to enter key supply chains as a high-visibility actuator assembler, but also judges that market expectations for humanoid robots are overly optimistic relative to the delayed Optimus mass-production timeline. It therefore maintains Neutral on the A-shares and Buy on the H-shares. The respective 12-month A/H-share target prices are Rmb39.8 and HK$41.2, based on 25 times 2030E P/E and discounted to 2027E at a 9.5% cost of equity; the report's listed prices are Rmb36.14 and HK$26.16, respectively. Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Luster LightTech. The company's share of traditional machine-vision systems is expected to increase moderately, supported by its ability to provide solutions to major customers and by some internally developed software, cameras, and lenses. Faster-growing new businesses such as energy storage and new energy, AI servers, and optical modules are expected to gradually improve the product mix and margins. Since 2025, the FZMotion motion-capture system has increased the company's exposure to humanoid robot data collection, providing a second growth driver beyond traditional machine vision. However, the report believes the valuation already reflects part of the business-mix improvement and humanoid robot optionality. The 12-month target price is Rmb40.1, based on 30 times 2030E P/E and discounted to 2027E at an 11.5% cost of equity; the report's listed price is Rmb45.48. For Best Precision Machinery, Goldman Sachs believes the company could become a competitive supplier of high-specification planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, supported by stable growth in its traditional internal-combustion-engine vehicle and new energy vehicle component businesses. The report forecasts that global shipments of high-specification humanoid robots will increase from approximately 20,000 units in 2026E to approximately 128,000 units in 2030E, and expects Best Precision Machinery's global shipment share in the related planetary roller screw market to gradually rise from 1% in 2026E to 5% in 2030E. This is based on the company's precision-manufacturing experience accumulated in fixture products, capacity support from equipment purchases, and expanding customer adoption and supply-chain penetration. Commercialization of machine-tool components is also progressing, with ball screws and linear guides adopted by a small number of domestic machine-tool manufacturers since 2024. Given the reasonable risk-reward relative to covered Chinese industrial technology and humanoid robot supply-chain peers, Goldman Sachs maintains Neutral. The 12-month target price is Rmb22.5, based on 32 times 2030E P/E and discounted to 2026E at a 9.5% cost of equity; the report's listed price is Rmb19.75. Finally, Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating on MOONS' Electric. The report recognizes the company's leading position in slotless motor products and motion control and believes it could become an important participant in the humanoid robot slotless-motor supply chain, but remains cautious on the size and profitability of the opportunity: adoption of slotless motors in dexterous hands may be lower than previously expected, technology pathways are still evolving, and supply-chain competition is intensifying. Meanwhile, higher R&D and marketing expenses, raw-material inflation, and the lack of economies of scale in early-stage new-business investment are pressuring near-term margins. Although end-market demand from factory automation, automotive, robotics, and 3D printing supported revenue growth in 2025, and key products such as servo systems, slotless motors, and automation systems maintained relatively rapid growth, profitability remains under pressure. Management is advancing cost reductions, supply-chain optimization, and stricter expense controls, but Goldman Sachs still sees limited near-term margin upside. The 12-month target price is Rmb35.5, based on an unchanged 37 times 2030E P/E and discounted to 2027E at a 9.5% cost of equity; the report's listed price is Rmb47.51.

Analysis framework

The report first compares participation scale, event composition, and rule changes between the 2025 and 2026 WHRG, then assesses progress in autonomous operation, motion control, and whole-machine capabilities through comparable competition results and medal distribution, while explicitly noting that rankings are affected by resource investment, participant composition, and event selection. It then maps industry trends to the specific products, customers, market shares, revenue, and profit growth paths of covered companies and derives 12-month target prices using forward P/E multiples and cost-of-equity discounting, ultimately assigning differentiated ratings based on valuation and execution risk.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodologyP/E and PEG valuation

  Forward P/E target valuation

  The report selects P/E multiples based on 2027E or 2030E earnings for each covered company and uses them to determine target values; some longer-term valuations are then discounted back to nearer years.

• Valuation methodology

  Discounting forward valuation using the cost of equity

  For companies valued using 2030E earnings, the report applies a 9.5% or 11.5% cost of equity to discount the forward valuation to 2026E or 2027E before deriving the 12-month target price.

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposition by shipment volume, market share, and value per unit

  The report explains growth drivers for gears, reducers, actuators, and planetary roller screws through growth in robot or new energy vehicle shipments, changes in supplier market shares, and increases in content per vehicle or unit.

• Competition and strategy frameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  R&D efficiency, product portfolio, and customer switching costs

  The report uses Inovance Technology's new-product R&D success rate, comprehensive product portfolio, and broad end-market coverage to illustrate its competitive advantages and resilience through cycles.

• (Method outside the vocabulary)

  Year-over-year competition and category benchmark comparison

  The report compares event counts, rules, and comparable results across the two competitions and tabulates medals by real-world application, competitive, and exhibition categories; it does not directly compare the 100-meter obstacle race because its rules changed materially.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Inovance Technology (300124.SZ)

  A supplier of industrial automation, PLCs, digitalization solutions, and new energy vehicle components that could benefit from automation upgrades and robot-related demand.

  Strengths

  Its shares of China's inverter and servo markets reached 25% and 33%, respectively; it has high R&D efficiency, a comprehensive product portfolio, broad end-market coverage, and relatively high customer switching costs.

  Weaknesses

  Growth still depends on overseas expansion, PLC share gains, delivery of digitalization businesses, and higher volumes of new energy vehicle components.

  Comparison

  Valuation is approximately in line with its historical average multiple, while the report believes its long-term growth and return profile remains attractive.

  Risks

  Industrial automation share gains, margins, or new energy vehicle component volumes could fall below expectations, while manufacturing capital expenditure and automation demand could slow.

• Shuanghuan Driveline (002472.SZ)

  A supplier of high-precision gears and robot reducers that benefits from new energy vehicle gears, smart transmission, and expanding robot applications.

  Strengths

  It has high-precision gear manufacturing capabilities, with margins and operating resilience continuing to exceed expectations, and is developing robot reducers and expanding into overseas markets.

  Weaknesses

  Its overseas plants have lower margins, which must be offset through improved internal efficiency.

  Comparison

  The report sees a superior risk-reward relative to some covered opportunities and maintains a Buy rating.

  Risks

  New energy vehicle market share, new energy business revenue, or industrial robot gear revenue could fall below expectations.

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017.SS)

  A supplier of harmonic reducers and integrated robot modules, with applications spanning industrial, collaborative, humanoid, and service robots.

  Strengths

  It is a domestic leader in harmonic reducers and is expanding from standalone components into higher-value modules integrating motors, encoders, and sensors; it has entered the China supply chains of international robot brands.

  Weaknesses

  Humanoid robot revenue remains in the stage of gradually increasing its contribution.

  Comparison

  The long-term growth outlook is positive, but the valuation already prices in substantial long-term humanoid robot growth, leaving the risk-reward relatively balanced.

  Risks

  Domestic industrial and collaborative robot demand could be weaker than expected, or competition from overseas and local brands could intensify.

• Sanhua Intelligent Controls A-shares (002050.SZ)/H-shares (2050.HK)

  A supplier of HVAC controls, automotive thermal management, and humanoid robot actuators.

  Strengths

  Its core businesses have globally leading positions, and it is expected to become an important assembler of humanoid robot actuators.

  Weaknesses

  Market expectations for humanoid robot mass production may be ahead of actual progress, particularly relative to the delayed Optimus mass-production timeline.

  Comparison

  The same company's A-shares remain Neutral and its H-shares remain Buy, reflecting valuation differences between the listed securities.

  Risks

  Humanoid robot revenue contributions, global new energy vehicle sales, or home-appliance sales could fall below expectations.

• Luster LightTech

  A supplier related to machine vision, motion capture, and humanoid robot data collection.

  Strengths

  It can provide solutions to major customers and has some internally developed software, cameras, and lenses, while energy storage, new energy, AI servers, optical modules, and motion capture could improve its business mix.

  Weaknesses

  Its traditional machine-vision share is expected to increase only moderately, while new businesses still need to deliver consistently.

  Comparison

  Long-term growth potential is positive, but the valuation already reflects part of the product-mix improvement and humanoid robot optionality.

  Risks

  New energy penetration and recovery, visual software or motion-capture business development could fall below expectations, while price competition in machine vision could intensify.

• Best Precision Machinery (300580.SZ)

  A potential supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots that also has automotive and machine-tool component businesses.

  Strengths

  It has precision-manufacturing experience and support from equipment investment, while its ball screws and linear guides have begun to be adopted by some domestic machine-tool manufacturers.

  Weaknesses

  Its share of the high-specification humanoid robot PRS market is starting from a low base, and commercialization depends on customer adoption and mass production.

  Comparison

  Relative to covered Chinese industrial technology and humanoid robot supply-chain peers, the report sees a reasonable risk-reward and maintains Neutral.

  Risks

  Growth in turbocharger penetration could slow or margins could fall below expectations.

• MOONS' Electric (603728.SS)

  A motor and drive supplier that could enter the slotless-motor supply chain for humanoid robot dexterous hands.

  Strengths

  It holds a leading position in slotless motors and broader motion-control products, while multiple end markets and key products maintained growth in 2025.

  Weaknesses

  The pathway for adopting slotless motors in dexterous hands has not stabilized, competition is intensifying, and R&D, marketing, raw-material, and new-business investments are pressuring near-term margins.

  Comparison

  Compared with other opportunities in the coverage universe, the report sees less attractive near-term risk-reward and maintains Sell.

  Risks

  Key uncertainties include the scale of slotless-motor adoption, blended market share, product competitiveness, and execution of cost controls.

Key data

• 2026 WHRG participation scale2,056 robots, 666 teams, 16 countriesParticipation was approximately 4 times the 2025 level
• China participation scale1,975 robots, 641 teamsChina remained the dominant participant in the competition
• Real-world application eventsIncreased from 6 to 21Application scenarios expanded from 4 categories to 11, while their share of events rose from 23% to 41%
• Autonomous operation scoringFully autonomous 1.0, remote-controlled 0.5Scenario events raised the bar for autonomous capabilities through scoring coefficients
• 100-meter event time limitShortened from 3 minutes to 1 minuteFurther tested motion control, endurance, thermal management, and reliability
• Winning 400-meter result38.15 secondsImproved by approximately 57% versus 2025
• AgiBot total medals18 gold, 16 silver, and 12 bronze, totaling 46Ranked first overall; won 12 gold medals in real-world application events
• Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center total medals15 gold, 12 silver, and 18 bronze, totaling 45Won 12 gold, 9 silver, and 9 bronze medals in competitive events
• Inovance Technology target priceRmb92.9012-month target price, 35 times 2027E P/E, 9.5% cost of equity
• Shuanghuan Driveline growth forecast2026-30E new energy vehicle gear revenue CAGR 18%, smart transmission gear revenue CAGR 27%Total company revenue and net profit CAGRs over the same period are 15% and 16%, respectively
• Sanhua Intelligent Controls growth forecast2025-30E revenue/net profit CAGR 16%/17%Covers growth in HVAC, automotive thermal management, and humanoid robot actuators
• Global high-specification humanoid robot shipment forecastApproximately 20,000 units in 2026E and approximately 128,000 units in 2030EUsed to assess long-term demand for Best Precision Machinery's planetary roller screws
• Best Precision Machinery high-specification humanoid robot PRS share forecast2026E 1%, 2030E 5%Reflects expected increases in customer adoption and supply-chain penetration

Impact & implications

The report believes the WHRG is becoming a structured platform for testing the practicality, fully autonomous closed-loop capabilities, and whole-machine reliability of humanoid robots, with industry competition shifting further from isolated athletic demonstrations toward multi-step real-world tasks. For the supply chain, reducers, actuators, precision gears, planetary roller screws, slotless motors, machine vision, and motion capture could all benefit from broader applications, but whether these opportunities translate into reasonable returns depends on mass-production timing, component adoption pathways, customer penetration, margins, and current valuations. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs is not uniformly bullish on the supply chain and instead maintains differentiated Buy, Neutral, and Sell views.

Risks

• Inovance Technology faces risks that industrial automation share gains, margins, and new energy vehicle component volumes fall below expectations, as well as slowing manufacturing capital expenditure and automation demand.
• Shuanghuan Driveline faces risks that its new energy vehicle market share, new energy business revenue, and industrial robot gear revenue fall below expectations.
• Downside risks for Leader Harmonious Drive Systems include weaker-than-expected domestic industrial and collaborative robot demand and intensifying competition from overseas and local brands; upside risks include faster-than-expected humanoid robot mass production or technological progress and penetration among key robot customers.
• Sanhua Intelligent Controls' primary risks arise from humanoid robot revenue contributions, global new energy vehicle sales, and home-appliance sales deviating from expectations.
• Luster LightTech faces risks from new energy penetration and recovery, visual software and motion-capture business development deviating from expectations, and changes in price competition within the machine-vision industry.
• Downside risks for Best Precision Machinery include slowing turbocharger penetration growth and lower-than-expected margins, while upside risks include faster development of transmission components and accelerated capacity ramp-up for new energy vehicle components.
• MOONS' Electric's primary uncertainties include the adoption rate, market share, and product competitiveness of slotless motors in dexterous hands; upside risks include faster-than-expected progress in humanoid robots or slotless-motor adoption.

What to watch

• Monitor whether real-world application scenarios continue to expand and how fully autonomous tasks perform in perception, decision-making, endurance, thermal management, and reliability.
• Monitor Inovance Technology's overseas expansion, PLC market share, digitalization business, and new energy vehicle component volumes.
• Monitor Shuanghuan Driveline's market-share gains and gross-margin improvement in overseas passenger-vehicle gear markets.
• Monitor Leader Harmonious Drive Systems' humanoid robot mass-production progress and penetration among international robot customers.
• Monitor Sanhua Intelligent Controls' humanoid robot actuator mass production, European new energy vehicle penetration, and the Optimus production timeline.
• Monitor Luster LightTech's motion-capture business, recovery in its new energy business, and visual software development.
• Monitor customer adoption, global shipment share, and machine-tool component commercialization for Best Precision Machinery's planetary roller screws.
• Monitor the adoption ratio, competitive landscape, and near-term margins for MOONS' Electric's slotless motors in dexterous hands.