A temporary shift in AI HDI leadership, with Unimicron likely to return to the top spot in share

Overview

This report focuses on short-term changes in the AI HDI supply landscape within Taiwan's PCB, CCL, and substrate industry chain. The core view is that, in the next-generation compute tray board cycle for major AI servers, Unimicron is likely to regain about 40% share and become the leader, while current leader Victory Giant Technology-H is experiencing a temporary share setback due to minor technical issues. The report also emphasizes that this issue has not caused delays to GPU server project timelines and is not considered serious in nature.

Core views

First, AI HDI leadership may have shifted only temporarily, and Unimicron will regain a high share in the next-generation product cycle. Second, Victory Giant Technology-H's share may decline in the short term, but the issue appears to be more of a technical tuning matter rather than evidence of a structural loss of competitiveness. Third, the share of new entrant suppliers may be higher than previously conservative expectations. Fourth, even before any share improvement, Unimicron's PCB/HDI supply is already very tight, indicating that demand related to AI servers and optical modules remains strong.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on supply chain checks to assess share allocation in major AI server compute tray boards, suppliers' technical progress, project timelines, and capacity tightness, and combines J.P.Morgan's ratings, prices, and disclosures on covered stocks to form its industry view.

Methodology notes

• supply_chain_checkSupply chain checks

  Use supply chain information to judge share shifts among AI server HDI/PCB suppliers

  Based on supply chain checks, the report concludes that Unimicron will gain about 40% share in next-generation compute tray boards for major AI servers, and evaluates the impact of Victory Giant Technology-H's technical issues on share and project progress.

• equity_research_ratingJ.P.Morgan OW/Neutral/UW rating system

  OW stands for Overweight and is classified in the buy category under FINRA disclosure standards

  The report discloses J.P.Morgan's rating definitions: OW for Overweight, N for Neutral, UW for Underweight, and NR for Not Rated; both Unimicron and Victory Giant Technology-H in this report are rated OW.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Unimicron (3037.TW)

  AI server compute tray board and PCB/HDI supplier, expected to regain leadership

  Strengths

  Expected to achieve about 40% share in next-generation compute tray boards for major AI servers; PCB/HDI supply is already very tight; resources are also being allocated to fast-growing areas such as optical module mSAP boards.

  Weaknesses

  Tight supply may limit short-term delivery flexibility; the current share price is already above the most recently disclosed NT$734 in the historical price target table.

  Comparison

  Compared with current leader Victory Giant Technology-H, Unimicron is expected to see a clear share improvement in the next-generation cycle.

  Risks

  If supply chain checks change, capacity expansion falls short of expectations, or AI server demand slows, share and earnings improvement may come in below expectations.

• Victory Giant Technology-H (2476.HK)

  One of the current AI HDI leaders, facing a short-term share decline due to technical issues

  Strengths

  It holds a leadership position in the current-generation product and is disclosed by J.P.Morgan as rated OW.

  Weaknesses

  It is dealing with minor technical issues and may have a short-term share level close to that of new suppliers.

  Comparison

  Compared with Unimicron, Victory Giant Technology-H may face a temporary share concession in the next-generation cycle.

  Risks

  If the technical issues are resolved more slowly than expected, share recovery and customer confidence may come under pressure; however, the report currently does not view the issue as serious.

• New entrant suppliers

  May gain share in the next-generation AI server compute tray board cycle

  Strengths

  Victory Giant Technology-H's short-term technical issues may create share opportunities for new suppliers.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide specific names, capacity, yield, or profitability evidence.

  Comparison

  Their share may be higher than the report's originally conservative expectation, but there is still no indication they can replace Unimicron's leadership position.

  Risks

  If technical qualification, yield, or customer onboarding does not go smoothly, actual share may fall short of expectations.

Key data

• Expected share for Unimicronabout 40%Expected to regain a leadership position in upcoming compute tray boards for major AI servers.
• Unimicron current disclosed price and ratingNT$903.00 / OWThe report states that prices are as of the close on 2026-07-13, unless otherwise noted.
• Victory Giant Technology-H current disclosed price and ratingHK$236.60 / OWThe report states that prices are as of the close on 2026-07-13, unless otherwise noted.
• Most recently disclosed historical target price for UnimicronNT$734The historical investment recommendation table shows a target price of NT$734 corresponding to 2026-04-02.
• J.P.Morgan global equity research rating distributionOverweight 53%, Neutral 36%, Underweight 12%The disclosure date is 2026-07-04, and percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, Unimicron's potential benefit mainly comes from recovering AI server HDI share and already tight supply; the risk for Victory Giant Technology-H is that short-term share is affected by technical issues, though the report does not define this as a serious event or one that would cause project delays. Overall, demand for AI server PCB/HDI remains resilient, and changes in the supply landscape may lead to relative performance differences among individual stocks.

Risks

• Supply chain check information may change, and actual supply share may differ from the roughly 40% expectation.
• If Victory Giant Technology-H's technical issues worsen or persist longer, they may have a greater impact on project progress, customer allocation, and earnings.
• Unimicron's supply is already tight, and if capacity allocation is insufficient, its ability to capture rising share may be constrained.
• If demand for AI servers or GPU servers is weaker than expected, it will affect the outlook for the PCB/HDI, CCL, and substrate industry chain.
• The report includes disclosures about J.P.Morgan's market making, client relationships, investment banking business, and compensation involving related companies, and investors should pay attention to potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• The formal supplier share allocation for next-generation compute tray boards for major AI servers.
• Whether Unimicron can deliver on its roughly 40% share and maintain PCB/HDI delivery capability.
• The progress in resolving Victory Giant Technology-H's minor technical issues and whether they affect follow-up orders.
• The actual share, yield, and customer qualification status of new suppliers in this cycle.
• Whether GPU server project timelines continue to avoid delays.
• The impact of fast-growing areas such as optical module mSAP boards on Unimicron's resource allocation and supply tightness.