FIGR April Consumer Loan Volume Strong, Goldman Sachs Raises Price Target to $46

Overview

This report is a monthly update by Goldman Sachs on Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (FIGR), focusing on preliminary operating data for April 2026. The report points out that after strong performance in March, FIGR's consumer loan market volume continued to improve MoM, reaching $1.34bn in April, and significantly exceeded Goldman Sachs and market consensus expectations.

Core views

Goldman Sachs' core view is that the strengthening of April loan volume validates the strong growth trend of FIGR's core business. Analysts believe structural products and platform expansion combined with cyclical tailwinds will continue to support loan volume growth, therefore future revenue, EPS, and loan volume forecasts were raised, and Buy rating is maintained.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses company-disclosed preliminary operating data for April, Provenance blockchain implied volume, and GSe and Visible Alpha Consensus forecasts for cross-validation; on the valuation side, it maintains a 32.5x target P/E multiple and passes higher profit forecasts through to the price target.

Methodology notes

• Operating Data TrackingMonthly Preliminary Operating Data Comparison

  Compare monthly trading volumes disclosed by the company with blockchain data, GSe, and consensus expectations.

  April consumer loan market volume aligns with Provenance blockchain data and is approx. 25% higher than GSe and consensus expectations, thus becoming the main basis for raising forecasts.

• Valuation methodsTarget P/E Multiple Method

  Derive price target by multiplying future profit forecasts by target P/E multiple.

  Goldman Sachs maintained Q5-Q8 P/E multiple at 32.5x unchanged, but due to raised profit forecasts, raised 12-month price target from $44 to $46.

• Factor FrameworkGS Factor Profile

  Assess stock characteristics from growth, financial return, valuation multiple, and comprehensive percentile.

  This framework uses Goldman Sachs forecast data to calculate standardized percentiles for growth, financial return, and valuation multiples, used to provide investment context relative to the market and peers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• FIGR.US

  Core Covered Security

  Strengths

  Strong April consumer loan volume, high validation degree from blockchain data, revenue and EPS forecasts upgraded, approx. 27.6% upside space exists for price target.

  Weaknesses

  ROA and ROE forecasts have a downward trend in the coming years, valuation still relies on a relatively high 32.5x target P/E multiple.

  Comparison

  April volume approx. 25% higher than GSe and Visible Alpha Consensus, performance better than prediction benchmark; rating given relative to its covered universe.

  Risks

  Decline in retail participation, lower interest rates affecting net interest income growth, weaker cross-selling of new products with lower margins, regulatory risks related to payment for order flow.

Key data

• April Consumer Loan Market Volume$1.34bnMoM growth 12%, YoY growth 108%.
• Relative to GSe/Consensus ExpectationsApprox. 25% HigherApril actual value significantly higher than 2Q26E estimate adjusted by days.
• Democratized Prime Matched Offer Balance$384mnUp 4% MoM in April.
• 2Q26E Total Net Revenue Forecast Adjustment+6%Raised after incorporating April preliminary operating data.
• 2026E/2027E/2028E Revenue Forecast Adjustment+5%/+4%/+3%Goldman Sachs raised revenue forecasts for the next three years.
• 2026E/2027E/2028E Adjusted EPS Forecast Adjustment+7%/+6%/+4%Profit forecasts raised following improvement in operating data.
• 12-Month Price Target$46.00Up 5% from previous $44.
• Current Price$36.04Report charts show closing price as May 4, 2026.

Impact & implications

If FIGR's subsequent loan volume continues to grow above expectations, the company's revenue and profit forecasts may still receive support; the price target upgrade reflects Goldman Sachs passing operational data improvements directly to the earnings model, but the valuation multiple itself did not expand further, indicating the investment conclusion comes mainly from fundamental forecast upgrades rather than loosening valuation assumptions.

Risks

• Decline in retail participation may drag down platform volume and user activity.
• Lower interest rates may affect net interest income growth trajectory.
• Cross-selling of new products to user base falls short of expectations, and related margins are lower.
• Regulatory changes regarding payment for order flow may affect related revenue or business model.
• Goldman Sachs has investment banking relationships and market-making disclosures with Figure Technology Solutions Inc.; investors should note potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent monthly consumer loan market volumes continue to exceed GSe and consensus expectations.
• Consistency between Provenance blockchain implied volume and company-disclosed data.
• Whether Democratized Prime Matched Offer Balance continues to grow.
• Whether 2Q26E and full-year revenue, EPS forecasts continue to be upgraded.
• Retail participation, interest rate environment, cross-selling efficiency, and changes in regulatory policies.