618 industry growth slowed but remained slightly positive, while JD stood out in users and AI use cases

Overview

This report is Jefferies’ conference/takeaway-style industry research on the 618 shopping festival in China’s internet and e-commerce sector. The core conclusion is that industry growth continued to slow but still remained slightly positive, with both parcel volume and GMV data indicating weaker promotional momentum than last year; at the company level, JD disclosed notably stronger data in users, supermarkets, AI consumer electronics, merchant AI tools, offline JD Mall, and cross-border business, highlighting its operational execution and progress in AI use cases.

Core views

First, the slowdown in 618 industry transaction intensity has been jointly verified by high-frequency parcel volume, official GMV, and third-party data. Second, GMV in May-26 improved from Apr-26 but remained below the first two months of 2026, indicating that the consumer recovery is not strong. Third, merchant strategy is shifting from pure GMV toward profitability and efficiency, and low prices are no longer the only success factor. Fourth, JD disclosed multiple high-growth data points during 618, especially in supermarkets, AI consumer electronics, JoyStreamer, JoyMarketing, and JD Mall, showing that structural performance within the platform outpaced the industry as a whole.

Analysis framework

The report uses a multi-source cross-validation approach: MOT weekly parcel volume is used to track promotional fulfillment intensity, NBS online retail GMV of physical goods is used to observe industry sales trends, early-June expert calls supplement merchant strategy and 618 expectations, Analysys third-party data is used to validate GMV growth during the promotion period, and JD’s official disclosures are incorporated to assess company-level performance.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency dataMOT weekly parcel volume tracking

  YoY parcel volume growth

  Weekly parcel volume from the Ministry of Transport is used to observe 618 transaction intensity; average weekly industry parcel volume from 11 May to 14 Jun grew 8% YoY, below 17% in the same period last year.

• Official statistical dataNBS physical goods GMV estimation

  Monthly GMV YoY

  Based on NBS cumulative physical goods GMV growth of 5% YoY for the first 5M26, the report estimates May-26 GMV growth at 2.6% YoY, better than Apr-26’s 0.2% but still weaker than the first two months of 2026.

• Expert interviewsEarly-June expert call

  618 industry GMV and merchant strategy

  Experts expect slight YoY growth in industry GMV this year during 618, and noted that merchant KPIs are shifting from GMV to profitability, AI is used to understand consumer preferences, and low prices are no longer the only success factor.

• Third-party dataAnalysys 618 phase GMV tracking

  Promotional period GMV comparison

  Analysys shows that in this year’s first phase of 618 (13 May to 3 Jun), industry GMV grew about 7.5% YoY, below the 10.4% YoY growth for the full 2025 618 period.

• Valuation frameworkSOTP and P/E valuation

  Target price methodology

  Alibaba target price of US$185/HK$179 is based on SOTP valuation; JD.com target price of US$49/HK$190 is based on 2026E 7x P/E (excluding new businesses).

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China internet retail / 618 e-commerce industry

  Core research target

  Strengths

  Industry GMV is still expected to post slight positive growth, May-26 GMV improved from Apr-26, and AI and profitability focus are becoming new operational themes.

  Weaknesses

  Parcel volume growth slowed to +8%, significantly below +17% in the same period last year; GMV growth was also below the first two months of 2026 and last year’s 618.

  Comparison

  Analysys first-phase growth of +7.5% was below +10.4% for the full 2025 618 period; NBS May-26 +2.6% was better than Apr-26 +0.2% but still sluggish.

  Risks

  Macro consumption slowdown, intensified competition, tax/compliance requirements, and weakening marginal effectiveness of low-price strategies.

• JD.com, Inc. (JD)

  Key company in the report and a 618 operational highlight; Jefferies rates it Buy.

  Strengths

  Ordering users hit a record high; JD Super, JD Fresh, fashion, AI consumer electronics, home appliances and furnishings, JD Mall, and cross-border all disclosed strong growth; JoyStreamer and JoyMarketing are supported by conversion and interaction data.

  Weaknesses

  The overall slowdown in industry GMV and parcel volume may limit platform beta; electronics categories are more sensitive to the macro consumer environment.

  Comparison

  JD’s disclosed user, category, and AI metrics were significantly stronger than the industry’s low-single-digit GMV trend, indicating company-level execution outperformed the industry average.

  Risks

  Macro drag on GMV, pressure on marketing expenses and margins due to competition in supermarkets/grocery, and weaker-than-expected user growth in lower-tier cities.

• Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

  Company mentioned in the report; Jefferies rates it Buy.

  Strengths

  The target price uses an SOTP framework; if the 618 industry still maintains slight positive growth, its e-commerce ecosystem may benefit.

  Weaknesses

  The main text did not disclose detailed Alibaba 618 operating metrics, so company-level operating validation is weaker than JD’s.

  Comparison

  Compared with JD, the report mainly provides valuation and risk disclosure for Alibaba, with lower granularity of operating data.

  Risks

  Macro slowdown affecting online shopping growth, rising marketing expenses due to intensified competition in local services and globalization, and lower-than-expected user growth.

Key data

• Industry parcel volume (MOT)+8% YoYAverage weekly parcel volume growth from 11 May to 14 Jun, below +17% in the same period last year.
• NBS physical goods GMV, first 5M26+5% YoYThe report uses this to estimate about +2.6% YoY in May-26 and about +0.2% YoY in Apr-26.
• Expert view on 618 industry GMVSlight YoY growthFrom the early-June expert call.
• Analysys 618 first-phase GMV+7.5% YoYCovers 13 May to 3 Jun; growth for the full 2025 618 period was +10.4% YoY.
• JD number of ordering usersRecord highDisclosed during JD 618.
• JD SuperBoth transaction value and user count posted double-digit growthMore than 1,000 brands recorded transaction value growth of over 100%.
• New SME merchants participating on JD>62%The number of new SME merchants participating increased by more than 62%; more than 3,000 merchants participated for the first time and exceeded RMB1m in transaction value.
• New product launches by major JD brands>500% YoYThe number of new product launches by major brands during 618 increased by more than 500% YoY.
• AI consumer electronics+100% YoYTransaction value of AI powered consumer electronics grew 100% YoY.
• High-end smartphones/thin-and-light laptops+300% YoY / +100% YoYRespectively the YoY growth rates in transaction value.
• JoyStreamerAverage daily merchant usage +500% YoY; GMV +100%; conversion rate +77%JD’s digital human livestreaming solution saw significant growth during 618.
• JoyMarketing>800m interactionsMatches marketing content through consumer insights and intelligent strategy.
• JD MallTraffic +22% YoY; orders +32% YoY; more than 30 storesDisclosure for the offline business format.
• JINGDONG Cross-borderNumber of products sold +60% YoYDisclosure for international/cross-border business.
• Alibaba valuation and ratingBuy; target price US$185/HK$179; current price $107.10Target price is based on SOTP valuation.
• JD.com valuation and ratingBuy; target price US$49/HK$190; current price $27.57Target price is based on 2026E 7x P/E (excluding new businesses).

Impact & implications

For investors, 618 is no longer simply a high-beta event driven by high GMV growth, but more a window for testing platform operating efficiency, category mix, merchant profitability, and the implementation of AI tools. The slowdown in industry parcel volume and GMV suggests consumer and competitive pressures remain, but the user, category, AI, and offline data disclosed by JD provide structural bright spots; going forward, investors need to distinguish between slowing industry growth and improving single-stock execution.

Risks

• Industry parcel volume YoY slowed from +17% in the same period last year to +8%, indicating weaker 618 transaction intensity.
• By NBS metrics, physical goods GMV in May-26 was only +2.6% YoY; although better than Apr-26’s +0.2%, it was still weaker than the first two months of 2026.
• A pronounced macroeconomic slowdown could suppress growth in online shopping, especially affecting GMV in electronics categories.
• Intensifying competition in local services, globalization, supermarkets/grocery, and other areas may push up marketing investment and compress margins.
• Merchant KPIs are shifting from GMV to profitability, and low-price strategies are no longer the only success factor, which may change promotional effectiveness and the quality of growth on platforms.
• New requirements such as e-commerce taxation may increase merchants’ compliance costs.
• The environment for top livestreaming e-commerce hosts differs from previous years, which may affect traffic acquisition and conversion.
• If execution on user growth in lower-tier cities is weak, results may fall below expectations.
• Exchange-rate and market volatility will affect ADR/HK share target prices and investment returns.

What to watch

• Whether MOT parcel volume continues to weaken or sees a rebound after 618 concludes.
• Whether subsequent NBS online retail GMV of physical goods validates slight positive growth during 618.
• The final statistics from Analysys and other third parties on GMV growth for the full 618 period.
• Whether platform subsidy, advertising, and commission strategies change as merchants shift from GMV toward profitability.
• Whether high-growth categories such as JD Super, JD Fresh, AI consumer electronics, high-end smartphones, and thin-and-light laptops can sustain momentum.
• Whether usage, GMV contribution, and conversion rates of JD merchant AI tools such as JoyStreamer and JoyMarketing continue to improve.
• Whether JD Mall traffic, order volume, and store expansion generate incremental offline growth.
• The impact of e-commerce taxation, compliance requirements, and changes in livestream e-commerce traffic patterns on merchant participation.
• Whether subsequent ratings, target prices, and earnings guidance for Alibaba and JD reflect demand trends after 618.