Douyin Data from 618: Premium & Foreign Brands Lead; Domestic Top-Tier Performances Diverge

Overview

This is Goldman Sachs’ pulse check report tracking performance on the Douyin platform for China’s cosmetics industry during the 2026 '618' festival. Core findings indicate that multinational corporations and premium-priced brands outperformed local counterparts and lower-end products overall, highlighting a clear trend towards concentration among leaders and product premiumization. At the stock level, companies like Mopf and Sumei Holdings showed stronger-than-expected growth due to successful positioning in higher tiers, whereas others such as Perilla Beauty and Huahai Bio encountered challenges including slowing momentum or declines. Based on these insights, the firm reiterated its Buy rating on select high-quality stocks while cautioning about associated risks.

Core views

The Douyin platform exhibited robust overall growth with significant head effects. From mid-May through June 18th, 2026, top 500 beauty brands saw a mid-30% YoY increase in GMV, while the top 50 brands recorded approximately 40% growth—a figure significantly exceeding those ranked below position 100, which lagged behind by roughly 20 percentage points. This underscores a growing centralization of traffic and sales toward leading brands. Price segment and brand origin analysis reveal that global brands consistently grew faster than domestic ones across various pricing levels. Specifically, luxury and premium categories experienced accelerated growth—from a mid-to-high 20% range in May to a 30%-50%+ bracket by June—whereas mid-premium and mass-market segments slowed from a 40% band in May to the upper teens to low 20% region currently. As a representative of high-end domestic brands, Mopf demonstrated resilience with 54% YoY growth from May to June. Significant differentiation was observed among key players: Within the domestic space, Sumei Holdings (Forest Cabin/CHANEL) performed exceptionally well, posting 188% YoY growth and a remarkable 356% full-cycle completion rate over the period. Similarly, Mopf excelled with a 150% full-cycle achievement and June acceleration to 91%. Histry Biotech posted better-than-anticipated results with 15% YoY growth and renewed momentum in June, reaching 44%. Despite having a solid 121% full-cycle completion rate, Perilla Beauty registered a negative 5% YoY shift in June, signaling waning growth potential. Huahai Bio and specific sub-brands within Sumei Holdings continued to face challenges, achieving merely 77% and 63% completion rates respectively. On the foreign front, Estée Lauder Companies benefited from powerful performers like La Mer and Estée Lauder itself, securing a 155% full-cycle completion rate with respective achievements of 167% and 154%; L’Oréal Group hit 130%, highlighted by standout performances from SkinCeuticals and YSL. Beiersdorf leveraged its luxury offerings, notably La Prairie, attaining a 146% full-cycle milestone. Meanwhile Shiseido’s performance fell short, ending at 113%, partly because sluggish activity in high-end lines CPB and NARS offset positive contributions from DHC and SK-II.

Analysis framework

The analysis employed frequent data monitoring combined with segmented breakdowns. First, it extracted GMV figures from Douyin’s ‘618’ campaign period (mid-May to June 18th), calculating Year-over-Year growth rates alongside relative full-cycle completion metrics to objectively assess actual sales progress after adjusting for base year fluctuations. Second, brands were cross-classified according to nationality (domestic vs. international) and pricing tiers (luxury/premium/mid-tier/mass market), identifying core drivers behind this particular 618 season as premiumization and recovery of foreign investment. Finally, macro trends were mapped onto covered companies using each brand’s specific performance indicators (completion rates, monthly velocity changes) to gauge implications for parent firms’ earnings potential, allowing adjustments or reaffirmations of investment recommendations accordingly.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Splitting

  Structurally decomposing GMV growth into contributions from different price bands and ownership types

  Instead of analyzing total revenue alone, splitting reveals that 'premiumization' and 'return of foreign brands' drove this 618 rally rather than broad-based gains.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Determining target prices based on expected P/E ratios for 2027 adjusted by cost of equity (COE)

  Each company’s target price calculation followed future one-year P/E multiples applied to projected EPS, further discounted to present value terms, incorporating premiums/discounts tied to growth profiles (e.g., a 30% premium granted to Mopf given its rapid expansion).

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mopf (1318.HK)

  Beneficiary: Representing elite domestic branding, Mopf delivered exceptional performance on Douyin with accelerating speeds

  Strengths

  Completion rate reaches 150%; June surge hits 91%; strategic success in premium positioning

  Weaknesses

  None noted

  Comparison

  Outpaces most peers domestically and matches upscale foreign rivals in terms of growth rate

  Risks

  Slower expansion in skincare than anticipated; slower penetration of upscale makeup into broader markets

• Sumei Holdings (2657.HK)

  Strong beneficiary: Explosive rise on Douyin with industry-leading completion rates

  Strengths

  Completion rate hits 356%; GMV spikes 188% YoY over period

  Weaknesses

  None noted

  Comparison

  Highest growth rate among all tracked names

  Risks

  Delayed uptake of anti-aging solutions; tepid take-up of essential oils; escalating online rivalry

• Histry Biotech (2367.HK)

  Positive outlier: Exceeded expectations with recovering MoM growth

  Strengths

  Achieves 120% completion; June sees uptick to 44%

  Weaknesses

  None noted

  Comparison

  Steadily reliable, beating Huahai Bio’s showing

  Risks

  Intensifying contest in dermatological therapeutics; failure in upcoming R&D pipelines

• Perilla Beauty (603605.SH)

  Neutral/Deteriorating: Negative June numbers signal fading impetus despite solid yearly totals

  Strengths

  Full-cycle tally stands at 121%, still reflecting net annual gains

  Weaknesses

  Declined 5% in June YoY, suggesting insufficient post-promo traction

  Comparison

  Lags behind frontrunners Mopf and Sumei Holdings

  Risks

  Underwhelming debut of next-gen hero products; fiercer marketplace clashes; sluggish climbs for emerging banners

• Huahai Bio (688363.SH)

  Negative: Persistent struggles marked by sharp drops in performance

  Strengths

  None explicitly stated

  Weaknesses

  Annual finish sits only at 77%, plummeting 42% in June YoY

  Comparison

  Worse off than sector mean and main competitors

  Risks

  Unexpectedly swift revival in dermal care operations (reverse risk); lessened competitive tensions (reverse risk)

• Betaine (300957.SZ)

  Neutral/Stable: Displayed steady behavior inline with projections

  Strengths

  Total coverage spans 130%; June shows mild improvement at 10%

  Weaknesses

  Growth remains measured compared to explosive cases

  Comparison

  Position lies midway between breakthrough outliers and struggling laggards

  Risks

  Shifts in functional skincare adoption rates; pace of acquiring additional market slice

• Shanghai Jahwa (600315.SH)

  Positive influence: Overall outcomes encouraging, especially notable wins from heritage goods

  Strengths

  End-of-period count achieves 137%; popular classic Six God line grows 128%

  Weaknesses

  Potential write-down stemming from overseas ventures

  Comparison

  Demonstrates effective rejuvenation of legacy Chinese house

  Risks

  Overseas impairment charges; closures impacting Bai Cao Ji store network; managerial transition disruptions

Key data

• GMV Growth Rate for Top 500 Brands on DouyinMid-30% YoYPeriod covering May through June 18, 2026
• GMV Growth Rate for Top 50 Brands on Douyin~40% YoYSignificantly above sector average, demonstrating increased concentration
• Full-Cycle Completion Rate for Mopf150%Achieved during May 1–June 18, with June growth surging to 91%
• Full-Cycle Completion Rate for Sumei Holdings (CHANEL)356%Reported 188% YoY increase in GMV from May 1–June 18
• MoM Growth Rate for Perilla Beauty in June-5% YoYDespite maintaining a healthy 121% full-cycle rate, indicates weakening momentum in June
• Full-Cycle Completion Rate for Estée Lauder Companies155%High-end anchors La Mer and Estée Lauder finished at 154% and 167% respectively

Impact & implications

These 618 data points validate two dominant themes in the cosmetics industry: dominance by established leaders and ongoing premiumization. For firms like Mopf and Sumei Holdings successfully positioned at the top end or benefiting from breakout best-sellers, rising market share should support sustained high-growth trajectories. Conversely, entities such as Perilla Beauty and Huahai Bio facing deceleration or competitive pressures may need closer scrutiny regarding forthcoming new launches and shifts in distribution strategies. Additionally, resurgence of foreign giants could intensify competition for middle-to-upper tier domestic labels.

Risks

• Suboptimal growth scenario or heightened rivalry in professional skin therapy domain
• Failed development or poor reception of novel items in pipeline
• Regulatory policy-related hazards
• Sluggish elevation of upscale cosmetic appeal within Chinese consumer base
• Margin erosion triggered by soaring promotional expenses
• Foreign operation losses specifically affecting Shanghai Jahwa

What to watch

• Comprehensive operational stats across Taobao, Tmall, JD.com, etc., accounting for discounts, rebates, return ratios
• Progress updates concerning domestic skincare extensions by major manufacturers
• Online competitiveness landscape and efficiency of marketing spend (ROI dynamics)