Domestic mobility profit expands steadily; Brazil food-delivery investment weighs on near-term earnings but operating efficiency improves

Overview

DiDi's 2Q26 results were broadly in line with expectations. China Mobility maintained solid growth and margin improvement, while international operations continued to incur losses due to Brazil food-delivery expansion. Goldman Sachs believes near-term group earnings remain under pressure, but the profitability of domestic operations, overseas local-services synergies, and progress in autonomous-driving commercialization continue to support a positive view.

Core views

The core view is that China's ride-hailing industry landscape remains stable, while EV penetration, subsidy optimization, and operating leverage should continue to drive GTV-margin expansion. Brazil food delivery requires substantial incentive and marketing investment during its rapid-expansion phase, pressuring international-business profitability in the near term, though most cities target gross-profit breakeven within approximately eight months.

Analysis framework

The report combines actual quarterly results with Goldman Sachs forecasts and market consensus estimates, assessing GTV, orders, platform take rate, adjusted EBITA, and valuation multiples across business segments including China Mobility, International Mobility, and autonomous driving, and uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach to derive the target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSum-of-the-Parts Valuation

  Value business segments separately and aggregate them

  Based on FY26E, the report values China Mobility, International Mobility, autonomous driving, and associated assets separately, while incorporating OTC-trading and holding-company discounts.

• Operating AnalysisUnit Economics Model

  GTV margin and single-city breakeven

  The report tracks domestic-mobility earnings quality and Brazil food-delivery expansion efficiency through GTV, order volume, platform take rate, incentive and marketing investment, and adjusted EBITA loss margin.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• DIDIY.US

  Covered Company

  Strengths

  Strong position in the China mobility market, with improved 2Q26 margins; Brazil food delivery has synergies with mobility and fintech; autonomous driving holds licenses in Beijing and Guangzhou and has a strong data base; ongoing repurchases support shareholder returns.

  Weaknesses

  Rapid international food-delivery expansion has led to losses, with group 2Q26 adjusted EBITA down 78% YoY; the ADR trades in the OTC market, with relatively higher risks related to liquidity, transparency, and volatility.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs references the latest valuations of Chinese internet transaction platforms, global ride-hailing companies, and Robotaxi companies, applying P/E multiples of 14x, 23x, and 15x, respectively.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in domestic mobility and Robotaxi, greater-than-expected investment in Brazil food delivery, regulatory pressure on pricing, higher driver-support costs, and weaker-than-expected improvement in platform take rate.

Key data

• 2Q26 China Mobility Adjusted EBITARMB4.2bn1% above Goldman Sachs' forecast, with a GTV margin of 4.6%.
• 2Q26 International Mobility GTV Growth61% YoYUp 53% YoY at constant currency, mainly driven by expansion of the Brazil food-delivery business.
• 2Q26 International Mobility Adjusted EBITA-RMB2.9bnLoss margin narrowed from -7.7% in 1Q26 to -6.6%.
• FY26E China Mobility GTV Margin4.2%Above 3.7% in 2025.
• FY26E International Business Adjusted EBITA Loss-RMB11.4bnGoldman Sachs' forecast remains unchanged.
• Target PriceUS$5.20Previously US$5.90; Buy rating maintained.
• Cumulative Share Repurchases433mn ADSs, US$1.9bnAs of July 31, 2026, US$1.1bn remained under the authorization.

Impact & implications

Improved domestic-mobility margins are the primary valuation support. However, Goldman Sachs lowered FY26E-FY28E adjusted net-profit forecasts by 78%, 8%, and 4%, respectively, due to domestic platform-ecosystem investment and international food-delivery losses. The lower target price reflects adjusted valuation multiples rather than a fundamental weakening in its view of the domestic business's long-term competitiveness. The current valuation implies approximately 8x 2026E earnings for China Mobility, versus an average of approximately 14x for Chinese internet companies; this view depends on continued margin expansion.

Risks

• Domestic ride-hailing competition or Robotaxi competition may be weaker than expected.
• Investment and losses in international businesses such as Brazil food delivery may exceed expectations.
• Pricing may face regulatory pressure.
• Investment to support drivers may exceed expectations.
• Improvement in platform take rate and domestic-mobility margins may fall short of expectations.
• OTC trading may result in lower liquidity, higher volatility, and lower information transparency.

What to watch

• Whether 3Q26 China Mobility order volume, GTV growth, and GTV margin can reach approximately 4.1%.
• Whether quarterly adjusted EBITA losses in international operations can be contained at approximately RMB2.8bn.
• Growth in newly added Brazil food-delivery cities, incentive spending, and progress toward single-city gross-profit breakeven.
• Changes in platform take rate, consumer subsidies, and driver incentives.
• Pilot operations and commercialization progress for approximately 900 mass-produced Robotaxi vehicles.
• Progress of share-repurchase execution and use of the remaining US$1.1bn authorization.