Global markets are facing a triple interplay of high energy prices, diverging monetary policies, and expanding AI capital expenditures. Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices back into the 90-dollar range, intensifying inflation stickiness in Europe and the US and prompting Bank of America to forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points this year, while Morgan Stanley believes core inflation will still ease moderately. China's macro picture shows fragile stabilization, with weak domestic demand but resilient exports and technology manufacturing; policy focus is on accelerating the deployment of existing fiscal resources rather than strong stimulus. On the funding side, inflows into global equity funds have slowed while fixed income has gained favor; although Asia-Pacific stock markets have seen foreign outflows, valuation discounts provide support. On the industry front, AI-driven demand for power equipment, advanced packaging, and optical modules remains strong, and Chinese companies' overseas expansion has extended from automobiles to medical devices and automation, becoming a core growth engine for crossing the domestic cycle.

The current market is dominated by two main themes: the AI infrastructure supercycle and China's macro deleveraging. Institutions such as Morgan Stanley, HSBC, and JPMorgan confirm that AI capital expenditure is translating into substantial earnings growth for semiconductors, data centers, and enterprise software, while supply and demand for memory chips and advanced packaging remain persistently tight. Meanwhile, accelerated deleveraging in China's household sector and pro-cyclical fiscal tightening are weighing on domestic demand, and reforms to completed-property sales in real estate are reshaping developers' return models. Among commodities, gold and sugar receive strong bullish views, while the Asia-Pacific consumer sector shows extreme divergence, with capital seeking rebalancing between crowded technology positions and undervalued value stocks.

Global markets show a marked divergence between the robust expansion of AI infrastructure and weak traditional domestic demand. The K-shaped recovery in China's banking sector continues, with state-owned major banks demonstrating earnings resilience, while reforms to the real estate pre-sale system structurally suppress developers' returns on capital. At the macro level, China's economy displays clear two-speed characteristics, with policy focused on fine-tuning to provide a floor; overseas, expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold steady remain firm, and the path for gradual RMB appreciation is becoming clearer. Demand for AI computing power continues to surge, with record orders across the entire industry chain from chips and servers to optical interconnects and Neocloud, but supply bottlenecks in advanced packaging and memory are beginning to spill over into consumer electronics. Among commodities, gold and copper remain strong, supported by structural demand, and the energy transition has entered an era of incremental growth. On the funding side, retail risk appetite has cooled and is highly concentrated in a few AI names, and institutions recommend adopting a barbell strategy to balance growth and defense.

Global markets are navigating the deepening of AI infrastructure and macroeconomic divergence. AI computing demand is shifting from training to inference, accelerating the expansion of memory architecture, custom ASIC, and optical interconnect supply chains, but crowding in Japanese semiconductor positions has reached extreme levels. At the macro level, uncertainty over Federal Reserve forward guidance has pushed up rate hike expectations, while weak domestic demand in China has prompted a policy shift toward existing home sales and fiscal expansion; U.S. industrial activity remains robust, supported by AI investment, but tariff-driven front-loading poses risks of an inventory correction. On the corporate side, Meta's litigation settlement could unlock its product pipeline and catalyze a valuation rerating; digital advertising fundamentals are strong, but platforms are underperforming e-commerce due to capital expenditure pressure, while Bitcoin is attracting structural fund inflows as a hedge against currency debasement.

The current market presents a landscape where strong AI infrastructure investment coexists with diverging macroeconomic cycles. Companies such as NVIDIA, MediaTek, and Oracle have demonstrated better-than-expected demand and monetization capabilities in AI computing power, custom chips, and cloud transformation, while the rebound in China's manufacturing PMI and the resilience of U.S. auto sales provide fundamental support. However, semiconductor supply chain bottlenecks, rising memory costs, and potential pullback risks in U.S. industrial momentum require investors to allocate precisely between capex beneficiaries and consumption-stressed areas. The Goldman Sachs Conviction List emphasizes that earnings growth rather than valuation expansion is the core driver of current U.S. equities.

The current market is driven by two engines: AI infrastructure investment and macro structural transformation. AI computing demand is spilling over from standalone HBM to full-stack memory architectures, data center power equipment, and high-end PCB materials, while accelerating cloud API monetization validates the commercialization path for large models. At the macro level, the U.S. economy shows no broad overheating but faces localized capacity constraints; China's manufacturing PMI has improved marginally, while real estate policy shifting toward completed-home sales is reshaping the industry landscape. Humanoid robot forecasts have been significantly revised upward, and digital advertising, empowered by AI, is seeing both volume and price rise, but global trade frictions and geopolitical compliance costs are materially suppressing the profit margins of companies expanding overseas.