Goldman reiterates ASML Buy rating and raises 12-month target price to €1,570

Overview

Goldman released a company research report on ASML, with the core conclusion that AI-related semiconductor demand remains strong. Demand from advanced logic, memory, HBM, HPC, and mobile applications is supporting robust EUV demand. ASML Q1 26 revenue was slightly above consensus, EBIT beat expectations, and the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance. The report reiterates Buy and raised the 12-month target price from €1,450 to €1,570.

Core views

The core views in the report are: first, AI infrastructure investment supports advanced memory and logic demand, making EUV a core growth engine; second, the installed base business supports gross margins, and a higher mix of higher-value systems over time should help improve ASPs and margins; third, long-term customer commitments and order visibility support ASML’s expansion, with a 2027 EUV capacity target of at least 80 systems; fourth, High NA EUV has processed more than 500k wafers with uptime above 80%, customer adoption signals are strengthening, and throughput should increase gradually as the ecosystem matures.

Analysis framework

Goldman updated its target price and rating based on ASML’s quarterly results, the company’s 2026 guidance, customer capex commitments, order visibility, EUV and High NA technology progress, and changes to FY26-30 revenue, gross margin, EBIT, and EPS forecasts. Valuation is based on a 37x CY27 P/E multiple applied to the revised earnings forecasts.

Methodology notes

• equity_valuationP/E valuation method

  37x CY27 P/E

  The target price is based on an unchanged 37x CY27 P/E multiple and applied to Goldman’s revised earnings forecasts.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated percentiles

  Goldman’s factor framework compares the stock against the market and sector peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and the integrated percentile.

• event_analysisEarnings and guidance revision analysis

  1Q26 results, 2026 revenue guidance, and gross margin guidance

  The report uses company quarterly results, the magnitude of the EBIT beat, the raised revenue guidance, and stable gross margin guidance as major inputs for estimate revisions.

• risk_assessmentM&A Rank

  M&A Rank 3

  A Goldman M&A Rank of 3 indicates a lower probability of being acquired and is generally not a key driver of the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML Holding (ASML.AS)

  Core covered name

  Strengths

  AI-driven demand for advanced logic and memory is strong, EUV order visibility is high, High NA progress strengthens long-term technological barriers, and the installed base business supports gross margins.

  Weaknesses

  Short-term expansion may create hiring, ramp-efficiency, and cost pressure; gross margin guidance is stable but has not yet fully captured the future expansion profile.

  Comparison

  Compared with other European semiconductor hardware and equipment peers, ASML has a unique technological position in EUV and High NA, making it a core beneficiary of stronger lithography intensity for advanced-node chips.

  Risks

  Potential EUV delays, a downturn in the semiconductor capex cycle, and adverse changes in market share, as well as volatility in China demand.

• Semiconductor equipment industry

  Beneficiary sector

  Strengths

  AI, HPC, HBM, and advanced-node investment increase lithography equipment demand, and customer capacity commitments improve order visibility.

  Weaknesses

  The industry is cyclical with capex sensitivity, and demand can fluctuate with end-market inventory and macro conditions.

  Comparison

  Compared with some general equipment segments, lithography equipment is more directly tied to advanced node complexity and rising lithography intensity.

  Risks

  Potential delay in wafer fab expansion, faster-than-expected yield or adoption pace for advanced nodes, and regional export restrictions.

Key data

• 1Q26 EBIT€3.2bn4% above consensus.
• 2026 Revenue guidance€36bn-€40bnPreviously €34bn-€39bn; midpoint roughly matches consensus, with the upper end about 5% above consensus.
• 2026 gross margin guidance51%-53%Unchanged; quarterly gross margin was at the top end of guidance, mainly supported by the installed base business.
• 12-month target price€1,570Prior target price was €1,450.
• Current price€1,230Current price disclosed in report charts.
• Implied upside27.6%Based on €1,570 target price versus €1,230 current price.
• FY26-30 revenue forecast adjustment+6%-10%Reflects AI-related advanced logic and memory demand, and ASP uplift from improved productivity of Low NA EUV tools.
• FY26-30 EBIT forecast adjustment+5%-12%Reflects updated revenue and operating expense assumptions.
• FY26-30 EPS forecast adjustment+6%-12%Includes EBIT and shares outstanding assumptions.
• EUV system capacity targetabout 60 in 2026; at least 80 from 2027The 2027 target is above the previous consensus expectation of 72 units.
• High NA progressmore than 500k wafers; uptime >80%Customers are signaling stronger adoption, and reductions in multiple patterning and process steps are expected.
• China revenue share assumptionaround 20%Goldman views this as conservative; stronger-than-expected China demand could be a positive upside factor.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, ASML remains viewed as a key capital expenditure beneficiary in the AI infrastructure cycle. Expansion in advanced node capacity, HBM and logic demand, tight EUV capacity, and maturing High NA ecosystem could all support upward revisions to future revenue, ASP, and margin expansion. However, the investment case still depends on EUV delivery timing, the semiconductor capex cycle, and changes in customer share.

Risks

• EUV delivery or technology ramp delays.
• Downturn in the semiconductor capex cycle.
• Adverse changes in market share.
• If China demand is weaker than expected, it may weigh on some regional revenues.
• Hiring, ramp inefficiencies, and cost pressure during expansion may weigh on near-term margins.

What to watch

• Whether 2026 revenue reaches the upper end of the €36bn-€40bn guidance range.
• Whether EUV capacity can be increased to at least 80 units in 2027.
• High NA customer adoption, ecosystem maturity, and utilization rate improvement.
• Sustainability of demand for advanced memory, HBM, logic, 2nm, HPC, and mobile applications.
• Support from installed base business, upgrade business, and mix on gross margins.
• Whether China region revenue remains around 20% or proves more resilient.