Nomura maintains Buy on BeOne and raises target price to USD 454.75

Overview

This report is Nomura's preview of BeOne's 2Q26F results and revisions to its FY26F forecasts. The core view is that revenue growth remains on track, mainly supported by global sales of Zanubrutinib and China market sales of Tisleizumab; however, attributable net profit in 2Q26F is expected to decline YoY due to higher taxes.

Core views

Nomura expects BeOne's 2Q26F revenue to be USD 1.6bn, up 22% YoY, and attributable net profit to be USD 55mn, down 41% YoY. The report believes the company is still likely to achieve management's FY26F targets of revenue of USD 6.3-6.5bn, gross margin in the high-80% range, and GAAP operating profit of USD 750-850mn. Nomura slightly adjusts its FY26F revenue and earnings forecasts by +1.1% and -2.7%, respectively, and maintains its Buy rating.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates BeOne's near-term earnings and target price through product-level sales forecasts, margin and expense assumptions, tax impacts, and a DCF valuation framework. Revenue forecasts focus on Zanubrutinib, Tisleizumab in the China market, and agent products; valuation uses a DCF model while maintaining the core assumptions of 10.6% WACC and a 4.0% terminal growth rate.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Nomura derives its USD 454.75 target price based on a DCF model, assuming a WACC of 10.6% and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ONC.US

  Covered company in the report

  Strengths

  Global sales of core product Zanubrutinib continue to grow steadily, Tisleizumab still has growth potential in the China market, and the pipeline and commercialization platform support long-term revenue expansion.

  Weaknesses

  2Q26F attributable net profit is expected to be dragged down by taxes and decline YoY; FY26F earnings forecast is below Bloomberg consensus.

  Comparison

  FY26F revenue forecast is 0.2% below Bloomberg consensus, and earnings forecast is 12.4% below; the stock is currently trading at 2.1x FY35F sales of USD 16.9bn.

  Risks

  Slower Zanubrutinib sales growth, weaker-than-expected clinical data from early-stage assets, and geopolitical tensions affecting investor sentiment.

Key data

• 2Q26F revenue forecastUSD 1.6bnUp 22% YoY.
• 2Q26F attributable net profit forecastUSD 55mnDown 41% YoY, mainly dragged by higher taxes.
• Zanubrutinib 2Q26F sales forecastUSD 1.1bnUp 20% YoY, roughly in line with about USD 1.1bn in 1Q26, affected by seasonality.
• Tisleizumab China market 2Q26F sales forecastUSD 213mnUp 10% YoY.
• Agent products 2Q26F sales forecastUSD 150mnThe report expects sales to remain broadly flat.
• 2Q26F gross margin forecast88%Up 0.5 percentage points YoY, affected by changes in sales mix.
• 2Q26F operating profit forecastUSD 152mnUp 74% YoY; operating expenses are expected to be USD 1.3bn, up 19% YoY.
• 2H26F revenue forecastUSD 3.2bnUp 11% YoY.
• 2H26F net profit forecastUSD 271mnUp 42% YoY.
• FY26F management revenue targetUSD 6.3-6.5bnThe report believes the company remains on track to achieve this target.
• Target priceUSD 454.75Raised from USD 442.91.
• Current priceUSD 326.77As of 2026-07-23.
• Implied upside39.2%Based on the target price and current price.

Impact & implications

For investors, the implication is that short-term profits may be disrupted by taxes, but revenue growth, commercialization of core products, and global market expansion still support the medium- to long-term investment thesis. The higher target price and maintained Buy rating indicate that Nomura remains positive on the company's fundamentals and valuation upside.

Risks

• Slower Zanubrutinib sales growth.
• Unsatisfactory clinical data from early-stage assets.
• Geopolitical tensions affecting investor sentiment.
• Higher-than-expected taxes may continue to weigh on bottom-line profit.

What to watch

• Whether Zanubrutinib global sales growth remains stable in 2H26F.
• Commercialization progress of Tisleizumab in the China market.
• Overall commercialization progress of marketed drugs.
• Clinical progress of pipeline assets and the quality of early data.
• Whether the company achieves its FY26F targets of revenue of USD 6.3-6.5bn, gross margin in the high-80% range, and GAAP operating profit of USD 750-850mn.