Goldman Sachs Maintains BESI Buy: AI Packaging Drives Long-Term Target Upgrade

Overview

This report interprets the core content of BE Semiconductor Equipment Company's (BESI) Investor Day held on June 18, 2026. Facing strong demand driven by artificial intelligence, BESI management significantly upgraded its long-term financial guidance and elaborated on the commercialization process of Hybrid Bonding (HB) and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technologies. Goldman Sachs believes that as packaging architectures evolve towards multi-chip, 2.5D/3D, and optical interconnects, BESI's equipment demand intensity will increase significantly, thus maintaining the 'Buy' rating with a target price of €315.

Core views

Financial guidance fully upgraded, reflecting increased confidence in AI packaging. Management upgraded long-term revenue targets from €15-19 Hundred Million to €17-22 Hundred Million, EBIT margin targets from 40%-55% to 45%-55%. This adjustment is based on higher confidence in the scale and sustainability of AI-driven packaging demand. The report notes that BESI expects its assembly equipment business growth rate to be about 3 times the overall market by 2030. Hybrid Bonding (HB) technology accelerates penetration, dual-driven by logic and storage. In the logic chip sector, HB technology has been validated and deployed in AMD, Apple, and Broadcom ASICs; Nvidia Feynman platform will be an important driver in the future. In the memory sector, all major HBM manufacturers are evaluating BESI solutions, expecting HBM4E (2027) to become the first mass application node for HB in HBM stacking. Compared to traditional TCB technology, HB offers a 30% thermal resistance reduction performance advantage, and share will continue to rise. CPO architecture explosive growth, optical interconnects becoming new engine. To solve AI data center power consumption bottlenecks, linear pluggable optics and CPO architecture adoption accelerate. BESI points out CPO speed from R&D to mass production exceeded expectations, Nvidia Spectrum-X and Quantum-X platforms are in production. Expected CPO unit sales will surge from 200,000 this year to 60 million units in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 300%. HB technology plays a key role in this process, used to integrate optical chips and chips. Capacity expansion matches demand, global layout optimized. BESI currently has capacity to assemble about 300 bonding machines annually and has prepared for the next stage of expansion plans. To support the five-year growth framework, the company plans to increase manufacturing capacity in places like Vietnam, expected Vietnam factory HB production to start at end of 2026. Meanwhile, the company still maintains technical differentiation advantages in China high-end application fields.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs conducts analysis along the main line of 'Technology Iteration Driving Increased Equipment Value'. First, by decomposing the physical process of packaging architecture evolution from single-chip to multi-chip, 2.5D/3D, and optical interconnects, deriving rigid demand for high-precision placement steps and equipment intensity. Second, adopting segmented track penetration rate analysis method, evaluating adoption rhythm of HB in logic chips (validated) and memory chips (about to ramp up), and explosive potential of CPO in AI network architecture. Finally, combining management's capacity planning and financial guidance upgrade drivers, verifying feasibility and certainty of growth logic.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkPenetration Rate S-Curve

  Penetration process of new technologies (such as Hybrid Bonding, CPO) from R&D validation to mass production

  The research report judges that technology is in the S-curve acceleration phase by analyzing HB validation status in logic side and expected volume release timing (2027 HBM4E) in storage side, and exponential growth prediction of CPO sales, thereby supporting long-term high growth of equipment demand.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Split

  Increased equipment steps and value per chip due to increased packaging complexity

  The report points out that as transitioning to larger architectures like CoWoS-L, interposers increase and packaging complexity improves, leading to significant increase in die attach steps count and precision requirements, thereby increasing equipment intensity per unit chip.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI.AS)

  Direct beneficiary, providing hybrid bonding and advanced packaging core equipment

  Strengths

  Technology validated by AMD/Apple/Broadcom in logic side, strong expectation to enter HBM4E in storage side; Leading advantage in CPO field

  Comparison

  Compared to traditional assembly equipment manufacturers, BESI has differentiated competitive advantages in HB high-precision equipment field

  Risks

  Client expenditure cyclicality; Hybrid bonding technology adoption delay; Intensified competition

• Nvidia (NVDA.US)

  Downstream core driver, its Feynman platform and CPO architecture drive equipment demand

  Strengths

  Spectrum-X/Quantum-X put into production, future platforms expand HB/CPO adoption

• AMD (AMD.US)

  Early adopter of HB technology in logic chip field

  Strengths

  Production deployment underway

Key data

• Long-Term Revenue Target€17-22 Hundred MillionPreviously €15-19 Hundred Million
• Long-Term EBIT Margin Target45%-55%Previously 40%-55%
• 2025-2028 Assembly Equipment CAGRApprox 50%Driven by AI Accelerators and Data Center Processors
• 2030 HB System Cumulative Opportunity1,150-2,200 UnitsPreviously 960-2,000 Units
• 2030 CPO Unit Sales Forecast60 Million UnitsThis year 200,000 Units, CAGR >300%
• Current Annualized Bonding Machine CapacityAbout 300 UnitsPrepared for next stage expansion

Impact & implications

For BESI, guidance upgrade confirms its core position in the AI advanced packaging supply chain, especially the premium pricing capability brought by high barriers in HB and CPO related equipment. For the industry, this means the growth momentum of semiconductor equipment is shifting from front-end process to back-end advanced packaging, and the commercialization speed of optical interconnection technology may be faster than market expectations. Investors should pay attention to BESI's order acquisition situation during the HBM4E introduction period and the ramp-up progress of Vietnam capacity.

Risks

• Periodic fluctuation of client capital expenditure
• Hybrid bonding technology adoption progress falls short of expectations
• Intensified market competition

What to watch

• HBM4E Mass Production Introduction in 2027 and HB Equipment Orders
• Execution Path for CPO Unit Sales Growth from 200,000 to 60 Million
• Progress on Vietnam New Factory Starting HB Production by Year End