Strong Airbus June deliveries preview, with delivery cadence improving

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' preview and tracking update on Airbus' June aircraft deliveries. It focuses on progress toward Airbus' FY26 guidance of approximately 870 commercial aircraft deliveries and uses Planespotters delivery-flight data and Cirium first-flight data to assess near-term delivery cadence and future production trends.

Core views

The core view is that Airbus' June delivery performance was likely strong. The adjusted Planespotters tracker indicates 82 aircraft delivered during the month, approximately 30% higher year over year and close to the seasonally implied level of 83 aircraft. Year-to-date deliveries of 344 remain below the historical run rate typically required to achieve the full-year target, but the gap has narrowed compared with prior months. Goldman Sachs expects delivery cadence to continue improving in the second half of 2026.

Analysis framework

The report combines data tracking and valuation: it first uses Planespotters delivery-flight data to estimate actual monthly deliveries, adjusting for the potential several-day lag between delivery flights and formal delivery dates; it then uses Cirium first-flight data to observe the first flight after assembly as a leading proxy for production cadence and future deliveries; finally, it applies a DCF framework to derive a 12-month price target and presents key risks.

Methodology notes

• delivery_trackingGS adjusted Planespotters tracker

  Delivery-flight tracking

  Planespotters data are based on delivery flights and may lag formal delivery dates by several days; Goldman Sachs' adjusted tracker is intended to reflect this typical timing difference.

• production_trackingFirst Flight Tracker

  First-flight tracking

  Based on Cirium data, this records an aircraft's first flight after completing assembly. The report notes that narrow-body first flights typically lead deliveries by approximately 20 days and wide-body first flights by approximately 60 days, making this metric a proxy for production cadence and future delivery forecasts.

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Goldman Sachs uses DCF to derive Airbus' 12-month price target, which is €230 in the current report.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Factor profile

  Goldman Sachs' Factor Profile compares the stock with the market and industry peers across dimensions including Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Airbus (AIR.PA)

  Covered company

  Strengths

  Strong June delivery tracking, with year-to-date deliveries and first flights both above the same period last year; Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and €230 price target.

  Weaknesses

  The year-to-date delivery cadence remains below the level historically required to achieve the full-year delivery guidance.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date deliveries of 344 aircraft, above 306 in the same period last year; year-to-date first flights of 373 aircraft, above 337 in the same period last year.

  Risks

  Further reductions to delivery guidance, foreign-exchange risk, and headwinds in the Space business.

Key data

• June adjusted delivery tracker82 aircraftBased on Goldman Sachs' adjusted Planespotters tracker, approximately 30% higher year over year.
• Seasonally implied June deliveries83 aircraftEstimated based on Airbus' FY26 delivery target of approximately 870 aircraft and typical seasonality.
• Year-to-date deliveries344 aircraftIf 82 June deliveries are confirmed, year-to-date deliveries will reach 344 aircraft, compared with 306 in the same period last year.
• June first flights73 aircraftBased on the Cirium first-flight tracker.
• Year-to-date first flights373 aircraftAs of June 30, 2026, compared with 337 in the same period last year.
• A220 rolling six-month average production cadenceApproximately 7 per monthA220 build rate indicated in the report chart.
• A320 rolling six-month average production cadenceApproximately 47 per monthA320 build rate indicated in the report chart.
• A350 rolling six-month average production cadenceApproximately 5 per monthA350 build rate indicated in the report chart.
• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on Airbus.
• 12-month price target€230Based on DCF valuation.

Impact & implications

If the June delivery data are confirmed, the improvement in Airbus' delivery cadence should increase market confidence in its ability to achieve its FY26 delivery guidance, particularly given the clear improvement in year-to-date deliveries compared with the same period last year. However, the year-to-date run rate remains below the level historically required to achieve the full-year guidance, so whether the acceleration in second-half deliveries can continue remains key to the investment thesis.

Risks

• Further reductions to delivery guidance.
• Foreign-exchange risk.
• Pressure on the Space business.
• Planespotters data are based on delivery flights and may lag formal delivery dates by several days.
• If delivery cadence does not continue improving in the second half of 2026, the risk of missing the full-year delivery target of approximately 870 aircraft will increase.

What to watch

• Whether Airbus' officially reported June deliveries confirm a figure close to 82 aircraft.
• Whether monthly delivery cadence can continue accelerating in the second half of the year after 344 year-to-date deliveries.
• Whether Cirium first-flight data can remain above seasonal levels.
• Changes in the rolling production cadence of major platforms such as the A320, A220, and A350.
• Any adjustments to delivery guidance, supply-chain bottlenecks, foreign-exchange volatility, or further pressure on the Space business.