Offline sales of China sportswear cooled in April, with divergence widening

Overview

This report is Deutsche Bank's April 2026 offline sales tracker for China's sportswear industry, using alternative data to monitor same-store sales growth, store count, average selling prices and recent product updates among major sports brands in mainland China. The report concludes that after the strong 1Q26 shopping season, April offline sales momentum cooled, consistent with the online sales tracking result and reflecting a still-weak consumer environment in China.

Core views

The key conclusion is that industry growth has shifted from broad-based recovery to clear divergence. Anta's portfolio slowed versus 1Q26 overall, but Kolon remained a highlight; Li Ning's momentum improved; Nike and Adidas maintained positive growth but at lower rates. Growth in outdoor and functional brands has started to normalize, competition in yoga and running-shoe niches is intensifying, and Lululemon and Hoka are performing below peers. The report maintains a Buy view on Anta, arguing that its multi-brand and international footprint helps offset macro pressure; it maintains a Hold on Li Ning, believing much of the recovery scenario is already reflected in market expectations.

Analysis framework

The report uses alternative offline sales data and cross-checks it against online sales tracking, brand portfolio performance, store network, average selling price, annual sales per store and product launch activity. The analysis focuses on same-store sales growth, growth dispersion across brands, competition in outdoor and functional categories, and the investment case, valuation methodology and risks for Anta and Li Ning.

Methodology notes

• alternative_data_trackingChina Sportswear Offline Sales Tracker

  alternative offline sales tracking

  Tracks offline sales trends for major sports brands in mainland China through a sample covering about 10% of total stores, including same-store sales growth, store count and average selling price; the report explicitly notes that the data do not represent official brand revenue.

• operating_metricsSSSG

  same-store sales growth

  Used to measure sales changes at comparable stores and is a core indicator for judging a brand's offline sales momentum and consumer demand.

• operating_metricsASP and store footprint

  average selling price and store network

  Compares different brands' positioning, efficiency and scalability through average selling price, store count and annual sales per store.

• Valuation methodsDiscounted Cash Flow

  DCF valuation

  The report uses DCF to value Anta and Li Ning, with Anta assumptions including a 1.7% risk-free rate, 1.35 beta, 6.5% market risk premium, 9.8% WACC and 0.0% perpetual growth rate; Li Ning valuation uses a 1.78% risk-free rate, 1.3 beta and 6.2% equity risk premium.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports

  Core coverage company and industry leader

  Strengths

  Leads China sportswear in revenue scale, with a multi-brand portfolio covering mass-market, professional, premium and outdoor use cases; Kolon continues to grow rapidly, and portfolio diversification helps offset macro pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Anta, Fila and Descente all slowed noticeably in April versus 1Q26, and Fila and Descente lack momentum.

  Comparison

  Compared with Li Ning, Anta has a more diversified brand matrix; compared with Nike and Adidas, its local execution and channel presence are more closely aligned with the Chinese market.

  Risks

  Weak macro conditions, declining foot traffic, inventory pressure, fashion risk and industry promotional competition.

• Li Ning

  One of the leading domestic sportswear brands

  Strengths

  April same-store sales growth improved to 10%, supported by running-category recovery and brand repair, with outdoor expansion opportunities.

  Weaknesses

  The company has gone through a brand downcycle since 2022, and revenue and earnings are still expected to grow only in the low single digits; valuation already reflects part of the recovery.

  Comparison

  More reliant on a single main brand than Anta, with some recovery leverage but weaker certainty.

  Risks

  Insufficient macro demand, share gains by domestic and international competitors, inventory and discounting pressure, and delayed impact from marketing spend.

• Kolon

  High-growth outdoor brand within Anta's portfolio

  Strengths

  April SSSG was about 64%, far above most brands, benefiting from Anta's marketing and execution capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  The high-growth base is rising, and future growth may normalize.

  Comparison

  Clearly stronger than Salomon, Arc'teryx and Descente in April among outdoor brands.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in the outdoor category, a higher base and changing consumer preferences.

• Nike and Adidas

  International sports brand comparables

  Strengths

  Both still achieved positive growth in April, and Adidas' momentum in China remains relatively resilient.

  Weaknesses

  Nike slowed materially versus 1Q26, and overall growth is below peak season levels.

  Comparison

  Adidas' 13% in April was above Nike's 3%, and it was more in line with the company's recent results and online tracking.

  Risks

  Competition in China, share gains by domestic brands and weak macro consumption.

• Lululemon, Hoka, Asics and On

  Functional and running-shoe brand sample

  Strengths

  Asics and On still maintained solid growth at about 18% and 10%, respectively.

  Weaknesses

  Lululemon was about -3% and Hoka about -14%, showing growth fatigue and intensifying competition in yoga and running-shoe categories.

  Comparison

  Asics and On outperformed Hoka and Lululemon, but both have also slowed markedly from their 2025 high growth rates.

  Risks

  Easing category heat, intensifying competition, fading brand momentum and promotional pressure.

Key data

• Sample coverageAbout 10% of total storesThe report notes that the sample data should be interpreted as a trend indicator rather than official revenue.
• Li Ning April SSSG10%Above 8% in 1Q26, indicating improving sales momentum.
• Anta April SSSG4%Noticeably slower than 19% in 1Q26, but still better than some domestic peers in a weak macro environment.
• Fila April SSSG1%Significantly slower than 19% in 1Q26, but improved from -4% in 4Q25.
• Kolon April SSSG64%Still a standout high-growth brand within Anta's portfolio and in China's outdoor market; 1Q26 was 73%.
• Descente April SSSG0%Continued cooling from 5% in 1Q26.
• Nike / Adidas April growthNike 3%; Adidas 13%Both remained positive, but Nike slowed materially from 20% in 1Q26, while Adidas eased slightly from 15% in 1Q26.
• Salomon / Arc'teryx April SSSGSalomon -2%; Arc'teryx -7%Reflects a high base and intensifying competition in outdoor categories.
• Lululemon / Hoka April performanceLululemon -3%; Hoka -14%Competition in yoga and running-shoe categories is intensifying, weakening brand momentum.
• Store and ASP examplesAnta has 5,848 stores, ASP Rmb 543; Adidas has 5,606 stores, ASP Rmb 844; Arc'teryx has 124 stores, ASP Rmb 4,189Niche premium brands have fewer stores but significantly higher sales per store and higher average ticket sizes.

Impact & implications

The report is cautious on investment implications: April offline sales cooling suggests that the 1Q26 recovery has not fully translated into sustained high growth, and weak macro consumption plus rising competition could cap valuation upside for the sector. Companies with stronger product strength, brand portfolios and execution may still outperform, such as Anta, which can offset the cycle through its multi-brand mix of Core Anta, Fila, Descente and Kolon; however, investors should be wary of high base effects, fashion fatigue and promotional competition in premium outdoor, yoga and running-shoe categories.

Risks

• China's macro consumer environment is weaker than expected, leading to lower foot traffic and weaker industry demand.
• Excess inventory may trigger heavier discounting and margin pressure.
• Competition in functional, running, yoga and outdoor categories is intensifying and may erode brand growth and market share.
• Product lines with strong premium or fashion attributes face fashion risk and changing consumer preferences.
• The alternative data sample covers about 10% of stores, does not represent official revenue, and may contain sampling bias and estimation error.

What to watch

• Whether offline SSSG continues to slow in May and beyond, especially for Anta, Fila, Descente and Li Ning.
• Whether outdoor brands such as Kolon and Kailas can maintain leading growth on a high base.
• Whether negative growth at Lululemon and Hoka widens further, and whether competition in yoga and running-shoe categories continues to worsen.
• The sustainability of Nike and Adidas' recovery in China, especially whether Adidas can maintain double-digit growth.
• Changes in store expansion, ASP and annual sales per store to judge efficiency differences between premium niche brands and mass-market brands.
• The impact of inventory, discounting and promotional activity on gross margin and brand strength.