Goldman Sachs maintains a positive view on AI-driven semiconductors and selected Asian leaders, while warning of macro and industry divergence risks
AI summary card
Goldman Sachs maintains a positive view on AI-driven semiconductors and selected Asian leaders, while warning of macro and industry divergence risks
The report covers themes including Japanese semiconductors and SPE, CATL, Trip.com, HSBC, China clean tech, and the US FOMC, with the core view that AI and data center demand remains strong, but margins, capacity, oil prices, and policy risks will drive sector divergence.
- Japanese electronic components and semiconductors remain favored ahead of earnings, with April-June results expected to beat guidance and industry recovery expected to become visible starting in the September quarter.
- Demand for Japanese SPE remains strong but margins are diverging; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron, while downgrading Ulvac to Sell.
- CATL reported 2Q26 net profit of Rmb22.55bn, up 36% year-on-year, and announced an Rmb20-40bn A-share buyback; management maintained its view of strong demand in 2H26 and 2027.
- The global data center capacity forecast for 2030 was raised from 168GW to 217GW, implying 170% power demand growth versus 2025 and approximately $6tn of related capex.
- The base case for the US FOMC is no rate change in July and no moves for the rest of the year, but the probability of a final rate hike has been raised from 25% to 35%.
Report interpretation
Overview
This is a Goldman Sachs multi-theme research compilation covering Asian tech hardware, semiconductor equipment, power batteries, online travel, banks, clean technology, shipping, and US macro policy. The report emphasizes that AI, data centers, and domestic semiconductor capacity expansion remain important demand drivers for the Asian tech supply chain, while also showing greater divergence in solar, certain equipment manufacturers, and the macro inflation path.
Core views
Core views include: the outlook for Japanese semiconductors and electronic components is positive ahead of earnings season, driven mainly by AI and data center demand, tightening supply-demand conditions, and stable pricing; China's memory expansion will benefit domestic SPE; CATL's results are in line with expectations and its long-term shipment growth guidance remains solid; uncertainty has declined after the conclusion of the Trip.com antitrust investigation; HSBC's sale of its Singapore insurance business should improve capital efficiency; however, solar industry demand and capacity clearing remain weak, while a rebound in oil prices also raises upside inflation risk in the US.
Analysis framework
The report combines company event commentary, earnings reviews, industry supply-demand analysis, target price and rating revisions, and macro forecast updates to provide 12-month investment implications across different assets and industries.
Methodology notes
Compare reported quarterly results, management guidance, consensus expectations, and Goldman Sachs forecasts to assess earnings trends and valuation re-rating potential.
Entries such as CATL, Shin-Etsu, Hyundai Mobis, Kia, and Hana Financial Group all focus on quarterly revenue, profit, margin, guidance, and target price changes.
Assess industry margin elasticity through capacity, demand, lead times, pricing, and product mix.
Entries on Japanese semiconductors, SPE, China memory, and solar all emphasize the impact of supply tightness, capacity expansion, or overcapacity on margins.
Assess asset price implications based on oil prices, core inflation, central bank policy, and current account changes.
The US FOMC, oil-price inflation, Asian FX/rates, and Global FX Trader sections discuss rate paths, CPI forecasts, tech-export currencies, and JPY risks, respectively.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- CATL / 300750.SSCore covered name
- Strengths
- 2Q26 net profit was in line with expectations, revenue beat Goldman Sachs estimates, the buyback size is record-high, and management maintained its view of strong demand in 2H26 and 2027.
- Weaknesses
- Unit net profit fell 7% quarter-on-quarter to Rmb97/kWh, affected by raw material cost inflation and an unfavorable product mix.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs maintains Buy and a 12-month target price of HK$947/Rmb565, with EPS forecasts broadly unchanged.
- Risks
- Raw material prices, deterioration in product mix, changes in capacity utilization, and a slowdown in battery demand.
- Trip.com / 9961.HKEvent-driven name
- Strengths
- The SAMR antitrust investigation has concluded; the Rmb5.179bn fine is covered by Rmb104bn in liquidity, and no restrictions were imposed on take rates or strategic cooperation.
- Weaknesses
- The one-off fine will still affect short-term financial performance.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs expects the stock price to react positively to the resolution of the investigation and maintains Buy.
- Risks
- Changes in regulatory policy, fluctuations in online travel demand, and competitive pressure.
- Japanese semiconductors and electronic componentsIndustry theme
- Strengths
- Strong AI and data center demand, tighter supply-demand balance supporting pricing stability and improved product mix, with April-June results expected to beat guidance.
- Weaknesses
- Order-to-shipment ratios, expansion plans, and the speed of resolving production bottlenecks still need to be monitored.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs particularly favors Buy-rated companies such as Ibiden, Murata, Taiyo Yuden, Renesas, and Rohm.
- Risks
- Slower-than-expected demand recovery, slower execution of capacity expansion, and customer inventory adjustments.
- Japanese SPESemiconductor equipment chain
- Strengths
- Capex demand remains strong, with Buy maintained on Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron.
- Weaknesses
- Rising component costs and differences in capacity and pricing power are driving margin divergence.
- Comparison
- Ulvac was downgraded from Neutral to Sell due to near-full capacity, extended lead times, and limited room for price increases.
- Risks
- Inability to pass through rising costs, capacity bottlenecks, and changes in customer investment pace.
- Shin-Etsu ChemicalSemiconductor materials and chemicals
- Strengths
- 1Q operating profit of ¥173.8bn beat expectations; AI-related semiconductor materials and infrastructure materials performed strongly, and wafer demand accelerated noticeably from June.
- Weaknesses
- Full-year operating profit guidance of ¥700bn is below Goldman Sachs' estimate of ¥780.5bn.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs believes the conservative guidance is offset by strength in electronic materials, maintains Buy, and sets a 12-month target price of ¥9,610.
- Risks
- PVC assumptions, geopolitical conflict, price negotiations, and the pace of capacity expansion.
- HSBCBanking and capital efficiency
- Strengths
- The sale of its Singapore life and health insurance business could generate a pre-tax gain of US$1.8bn and improve CET1 by up to 15bps.
- Weaknesses
- The transaction is expected to complete in 1H27, so there is a timing lag before benefits are realized.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs believes the deal aligns with the strategy of streamlining operations and exiting non-core, capital-intensive businesses, and maintains Buy.
- Risks
- Transaction approval, realization of capital returns, and the cycle in Asian banking operations.
- China clean tech/solarIndustry divergence theme
- Strengths
- At trough valuations, Goldman Sachs prefers leading encapsulant film and high-efficiency module companies, and upgraded Xinyi Solar to Buy.
- Weaknesses
- Weak demand, slow capacity exit, and structurally low utilization rates over an extended period.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs cut 2027-2030E installations by 17%, value-chain ASP by 9%, covered-company EBITDA by an average of 38%, and target prices by an average of 33%.
- Risks
- Further price declines, slow capacity clearing, and slower-than-expected earnings recovery.
- Asian tech-related currenciesMacro strategy mapping
- Strengths
- KRW, TWD, SGD, and MYR are supported by the AI investment cycle and current account surpluses from tech exports.
- Weaknesses
- Energy shocks and domestic policy differences may widen regional currency divergence.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs maintains its 12-month USD/CNY forecast of 6.50, is bearish on IDR, and expects THB to underperform.
- Risks
- The US rate path, energy prices, and regional policy uncertainty.
Key data
- CATL 2Q26 net profitRmb22.55bn, up 36% year-on-yearResults were in line with expectations, and the company also announced an Rmb20-40bn A-share buyback plan.
- CATL 12-month target priceHK$947/Rmb565Goldman Sachs maintains Buy, with 2026-2028 EPS estimates broadly unchanged.
- Global data center capacity forecast for 2030217GWRaised from the previous 168GW, implying 170% power demand growth versus 2025.
- Incremental global data center capex requirementapproximately $6tnCorresponding to 116GW of net new capacity.
- US FOMC rate hike probability35%Raised from 25%, though the base case remains no hike in July and no change for the rest of the year.
- Oil price assumption$97/barrelA 35% oil price rebound lifts July and August US headline CPI forecasts to 0.12% and 0.49%, respectively.
- Trip.com antitrust fineRmb5.179bnThe company has accepted the one-off penalty, and regulators did not further restrict take rates or strategic cooperation.
- HSBC sale of Singapore life and health insurance businessUS$2.1bnExpected to generate a pre-tax gain of US$1.8bn and lift CET1 by up to 15bps upon completion in 1H27.
- Revision to China solar installation forecast for 2027-2030Edown 17%With weak industry demand and slow capacity exit, Goldman Sachs cut average 2026-2030E EBITDA for covered companies by 38%.
- Ulvac earnings forecast revisionFY6/27-FY6/29 operating profit cut by 18%/15%/12%Due to near-full capacity utilization, longer lead times, and limited pricing upside, the rating was downgraded from Neutral to Sell.
Impact & implications
In terms of investment implications, AI, data centers, power infrastructure, semiconductor materials, semiconductor equipment localization, and leading power battery names still hold relative advantages; company-specific events at online travel names and HSBC reduce some uncertainty; meanwhile, oil price shocks, US policy expectations, JPY positioning, solar profit pressure, and capacity bottlenecks at some equipment makers may drive volatility and valuation divergence.
Risks
- A rebound in US oil prices could push up headline CPI and increase FOMC policy uncertainty.
- Semiconductor equipment makers face rising component costs, capacity bottlenecks, and differences in pricing power.
- Weak solar demand and slow capacity exit may prolong the low-utilization cycle.
- Crowded JPY short positioning and energy volatility could trigger sharp FX reversals or intervention risk.
- Geopolitical conflict, shipping blockades, and energy supply shocks could alter inflation, freight, and risk appetite.
What to watch
- April-June earnings, order-to-shipment ratios, and September-quarter recovery guidance from Japanese semiconductor and electronic component companies.
- China DRAM capacity expansion, HBM3/3E and 3D DRAM roadmaps, and the pace of domestic SPE adoption.
- CATL's shipment growth in 2H26 and 2027, unit profit, raw material costs, and buyback execution.
- The tone of the US July FOMC meeting, the pass-through of oil prices into July and August CPI, and the path of core PCE ahead of September.
- China solar glass prices, capacity exit, Tier 1 manufacturer market share, and the sustainability of Xinyi Solar's fundamental improvement.
- The impact of Bab-al-Mandab-related shipping disruptions on VLCC rates and tanker supply surplus.