JPMorgan remains constructive on the semiconductor equipment chain, with Inficon seen as a beneficiary of the WFE upcycle

Overview

This report is JPMorgan's pre-Q2'26 earnings season view and forecast update on European small and mid-cap technology hardware names. The core conclusion is to continue preferring the semiconductor equipment chain over the semiconductor devices chain: AI infrastructure and data-center build-out are lifting WFE, and optical and advanced-processing demand, which benefits Aixtron, Comet, and Inficon; but the same AI demand wave is also pushing up DRAM, NAND, and packaging/test-related spending, creating margin and demand pressure on names with higher consumer-electronics exposure.

Core views

The report is broadly constructive on SemiCap, believing Aixtron, Comet, and Inficon can still outperform consensus expectations on orders, revenue visibility, and profit forecasts. Inficon’s key points include a WFE upcycle, spare parts and service revenue rising as fab utilization improves, content growth driven by increased process complexity, continued momentum in non-semiconductor businesses, and improving margin support from FX in the second half. By contrast, the report is more cautious on Semi Devices names such as Nordic Semiconductor and Soitec because they have higher consumer-electronics exposure, limited direct AI exposure, rising storage and packaging/test costs, and in some cases valuations already above historical ranges.

Analysis framework

The report uses a pre-earnings outlook approach, comparing JPM forecasts, company guidance, and Bloomberg consensus by company, and combines orders, end-demand, FX, costs, valuation multiples, and historical ranges to assess potential upside or risks in Q2'26 results and subsequent guidance.

Methodology notes

• Industry cycle analysisWFE upcycle framework

  Use wafer fab equipment spending growth to assess revenue, orders, and visibility for the semiconductor equipment chain.

  The report cites JPM’s WFE forecast, arguing that growth of 28%/29%/16% in CY26/CY27/CY28 supports further upward revisions to SemiCap companies’ order and medium-term revenue forecasts.

• Consensus comparisonComparison of JPM forecasts with Bloomberg consensus

  Identify potential earnings surprises by comparing JPM forecasts, company guidance, and consensus expectations.

  The report presents Q2'26, Q3'26, or H1/H2 forecasts company by company, and judges which names have potential upside in revenue, margins, or orders versus the market.

• Valuation analysisHistorical multiple range comparison

  Assess valuation appeal by comparing current P/E and EV/EBITDA against the 2016-2026 historical range and median.

  The report says that although SemiCap stocks have performed strongly year-to-date, based on JPM forecasts these names are still broadly near the 10-year historical median.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Inficon (IFCN.S)

  Core coverage name, SemiCap beneficiary

  Strengths

  High WFE exposure, spare parts and service rising with higher fab utilization, content growth from greater process complexity, and non-semiconductor businesses with annualized pricing momentum and solar sector support.

  Weaknesses

  Some components use storage-related inputs, and rising storage prices could pressure gross margins.

  Comparison

  Compared with Semi Devices with higher consumer-electronics exposure, Inficon has a stronger direct benefit from a WFE upcycle and equipment-cycle recovery.

  Risks

  Capacity and delivery execution under demand surge, storage-cost pressure on margins, and a potential pullback in the semiconductor cycle.

• Aixtron

  Member of the preferred SemiCap list

  Strengths

  Photonic orders are strong, and the share of Asia customers is expected to rise; comments on GaN may support next-stage growth.

  Weaknesses

  Power business may remain weak in Q2, and the probability of further FY26 guidance upgrades is seen as relatively low.

  Comparison

  With Inficon and Comet, it is part of the report’s preferred SemiCap tilt.

  Risks

  Whether export licenses, extension of order execution, and GaN/SiC demand realization timing materialize as expected.

• Comet

  Member of the preferred SemiCap list

  Strengths

  Order trend is healthy, and consignment inventory build could be a leading indicator of future revenue growth; Synertia is driving higher RF Power Generation share.

  Weaknesses

  The Penang plant ramp and productivity initiatives may cause one-off margin dilution.

  Comparison

  The report says its mid-term guidance assumptions are relatively conservative and its valuation is not overly demanding.

  Risks

  Changes in WFE forecasts, FX movements, NAND exposure, and the pace of new product adoption.

• Nordic Semiconductor

  More cautious Semi Devices name

  Strengths

  Higher probability of hitting Q2 revenue guidance, and relatively stable industrial and medical demand with lower distributor inventory.

  Weaknesses

  Around 60% consumer-electronics exposure, with rising storage, test, and packaging costs likely to pressure gross margins.

  Comparison

  Compared with SemiCap, direct AI exposure is limited and valuation is above historical averages.

  Risks

  Consumer-electronics order deceleration, pass-through of higher DRAM prices, and margins below market expectation.

• Soitec

  More cautious Semi Devices name

  Strengths

  Silicon Photonics benefits from optical infrastructure adoption and still has strong growth potential.

  Weaknesses

  Mobile still accounts for about 50% of revenue; smartphone market contraction and elevated customer inventory create downside risk.

  Comparison

  Although Photonics-SOI is growth-oriented, core Mobile weakness may offset the upside.

  Risks

  RF-SOI inventory digestion, terms of long-term supply agreements, Photonics SOI customer qualification, and yield quality.

Key data

• JPM WFE growth forecastCY26/CY27/CY28: 28%/29%/16%Used to support the case for upward revisions to SemiCap order visibility and medium-term forecasts.
• Inficon rating and target priceOverweight, 200 CHFThe report believes Inficon’s FY26 guidance still has further upside at the time of the Q2'26 results.
• Inficon FY26 guidance and forecastCompany revenue guidance: $710m-750m; JPM/Consensus: $777m/$758m; operating margin guidance: 18-20%, JPM/Consensus: 20.3%/19.3%JPM forecasts are above the company’s revenue guidance midpoint and margin midpoint.
• Inficon earnings dateThursday 30 JulyQ2'26 earnings release date.
• Consumer electronics cost pressureRising DRAM, NAND, packaging/test, and storage-related costsThe report says this pressure is more pronounced for names with high consumer-electronics exposure such as Nordic Semiconductor and Soitec.
• Automotive semiconductor backdropInventory destocking is broadly complete, but the upcycle is not yet fully underwayAuto-exposed names such as Melexis benefit from a gradual normalization, while managements have limited upside risk in materially raising guidance.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report implies that relative hit-rate in the Q2'26 season is more concentrated in the semiconductor equipment chain, especially for companies where order backlog, WFE-related visibility, and margin improvement can be validated; by contrast, the semiconductor devices chain requires closer monitoring of consumer demand, inventory digestion, and cost pass-through. If Inficon delivers positive commentary on output capacity, ability to absorb a surge in semiconductor demand, margin-pressure relief, and momentum in non-semiconductor business, the Overweight case could be reinforced.

Risks

• AI infrastructure demand lifting DRAM, NAND, and related input costs could disrupt demand or shipments in consumer-electronics end markets.
• If SemiCap companies fail to meet expectations on orders, backlog conversion, or capacity absorption, WFE upcycle investment logic could weaken.
• Automotive semiconductor recovery remains relatively slow; the end of destocking does not yet mean a new upcycle has been fully established.
• Although FX may improve in the second half, EUR, CHF, and USD movements will still affect revenue and margins.
• Soitec’s Mobile business and Nordic’s consumer-electronics business are more sensitive to price increases and inventory changes.

What to watch

• Inficon’s commentary on demand surge in its semiconductor segment and on capacity and delivery execution.
• Inficon’s comments on the impact of higher storage prices on margins and how it is mitigating them.
• Whether Aixtron’s photonics orders extend into 2027-2028 and whether the share of Asian customers rises.
• Comet’s order trend, consignment inventory build, and Synertia adoption progress.
• Nordic Semiconductor’s consumer-electronics orders and margin guidance, especially around testing, packaging, and storage cost pressure.
• Soitec’s Photonics SOI long-term agreements, customer qualification and yield progress, and RF-SOI channel inventory digestion.