Goldman Sachs multi-industry heatmap shows: from 1Q26 to date, orders are strong while sales are weak; regional performance is overall positive but divergence is widening

Overview

This report is an update to Goldman Sachs' multi-industry toolkit, primarily using a heatmap to track earnings acceleration or deceleration across different end markets. The report focuses on early disclosures in the 1Q26 earnings season to date and, combined with European multi-industry coverage and a global peer sample, evaluates the performance of metrics such as orders, sales, adjusted EBITA, margins, and free cash flow relative to company-compiled consensus.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes the early performance of this earnings season is overall positive but uneven. Order data is clearly stronger than sales data, indicating that demand momentum has not fully flowed through to revenue; margins and free cash flow continue to show resilience, supporting the market's view on operating quality. However, widespread sales misses, weak pricing commentary, rising input cost pressure, and concerns that pre-buying may have boosted orders mean investors still need to interpret the early strong order signals cautiously. In terms of long-term themes, data center capital expenditure remains the most important point of debate in the multi-industry sector.

Analysis framework

Using a heatmap approach, the report converts companies' post-earnings organic order growth or organic sales growth into sequential acceleration or deceleration signals for end markets, and observes trends by region and sector. For backlog-driven companies, the focus is on year-over-year organic order growth; for other companies, the focus is on year-over-year organic sales growth. The report also combines company-compiled consensus to calculate the proportions of beats or misses on orders, sales, adjusted EBITA, margins, and free cash flow.

Methodology notes

• Earnings heatmapMulti-Industry Heatmap

  Tracking sequential earnings acceleration or deceleration

  After companies release earnings or preliminary commentary, the heatmap tracks organic order growth or organic sales growth and converts these metrics into sequential signals of improvement or deterioration across different end markets.

• Stock screening toolGS Factor Profile

  Factor profile for growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile uses analyst forecasts and standardized rankings to compare stocks versus the market and sector peers on growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Probability score of becoming an acquisition target

  Across its global coverage, Goldman Sachs uses qualitative and quantitative factors to assess the probability that a company becomes an acquisition target, and assigns M&A ranks from 1 to 3, where 1 indicates higher probability and 3 indicates lower probability.

• Data toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum provides detailed financial statement history, forecasts, and ratio data for in-depth single-company analysis or cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• European multi-industry equity coverage

  Core covered asset

  Strengths

  Overall still positive, but less strong than the Americas and China/Asia; some companies performed well in orders, margins, and free cash flow.

  Weaknesses

  Europe has shown some sequential weakening relative to other regions, and general industrial has shown signs of deceleration.

  Comparison

  The Americas and China/Asia are stronger than Europe.

  Risks

  If sales continue to miss expectations or cost pressures keep rising, the earnings recovery in European multi-industry sectors may slow.

• Americas multi-industry end markets

  Regional comparison

  Strengths

  The heatmap shows overall strong performance, with sequential improvement in areas such as vehicles and consumer.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide sufficiently complete company-level evidence in finer detail.

  Comparison

  Stronger than Europe.

  Risks

  Strong orders may be affected by advance purchasing, and the sustainability of follow-on demand still needs verification.

• China/Asia end markets

  Regional comparison

  Strengths

  Overall performance is strong, with signs of improvement in mining and construction.

  Weaknesses

  China/Asia vehicles have shown sequential deceleration.

  Comparison

  Overall stronger than Europe, but internal sector divergence is evident.

  Risks

  If vehicle demand continues to decelerate, it may offset the positive impact from improvement in construction and mining.

• Oil & Gas

  Sector heatmap observation

  Strengths

  The report includes it in the multi-industry end-market tracking framework.

  Weaknesses

  The heatmap shows sequential deceleration in Oil & Gas.

  Comparison

  Weaker than areas showing improvement such as mining, construction, consumer, and vehicles.

  Risks

  Changes in commodity prices, input costs, and capital expenditure pacing may continue to affect sector expectations.

• Data center capital expenditure-related chain

  Long-term theme

  Strengths

  It remains the core long-term discussion topic in the multi-industry sector and may support demand for certain capital goods and technology/semi segments.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide quantified upside or specific company target prices.

  Comparison

  Compared with short-cycle order fluctuations, data center capital expenditure is a more structural long-term issue.

  Risks

  If capital expenditure expectations are revised downward, valuations and order expectations for related supply chain companies may come under pressure.

Key data

• Reporting progress of covered companiesabout 34%By the end of the first week of the 1Q26 earnings season, about 34% of companies in Goldman Sachs' coverage had reported.
• Reporting progress of globally tracked peersabout 10%About 10% of globally tracked peers had disclosed at least sales data.
• Order beat rate89%Among companies that had reported, a high proportion beat company-compiled consensus on orders.
• Sales miss rateabout 81%Sales performance was weak, with most companies missing expectations on sales.
• Median order result6.0%In the tabulated sample, the median order result versus consensus was 6.0%.
• Median sales result0.0%In the tabulated sample, the median sales result versus consensus was 0.0%.
• Median adjusted EBITA result0.0%In the tabulated sample, the median adjusted EBITA result versus consensus was 0.0%.
• Free cash flow beat rate50%In the sample, the proportions beating and missing expectations on free cash flow were both 50%.
• Goldman Sachs global equity rating distributionBuy 50%, Hold 34%, Sell 16%The disclosure appendix shows that as of 2026-04-01, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research covered 3,074 stocks.

Impact & implications

For investors, this report suggests signs of improvement in short-cycle demand across multi-industry sectors, with more companies in Europe also providing cautiously optimistic guidance; however, sales missing expectations and weak pricing commentary imply that the earnings recovery is still not firmly established. If strong orders are mainly driven by pre-buying, subsequent quarters may face downside risk. Data center capital expenditure remains an important variable for long-term allocation and sector divergence, and its transmission to electrical equipment, industrial automation, Tech/Semi, and related capital goods chains needs to be tracked continuously.

Risks

• Strong orders may partly come from advance purchasing, creating uncertainty about order sustainability in subsequent quarters.
• Commodity and input cost pressures are re-emerging and may compress margins.
• Pricing commentary remains generally weak, limiting companies' ability to pass costs downstream.
• Widespread sales misses indicate that the demand recovery has not yet fully appeared in revenue.
• Data points in some sectors and regions are limited, and aggregate trends may not be fully comparable with the previous quarter.
• Goldman Sachs may have investment banking relationships with companies under its coverage, and investors should pay attention to disclosures of potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• In subsequent 1Q26 earnings season disclosures, whether strong orders can translate into sales growth.
• Whether the improvement in short-cycle demand in Europe can continue, especially whether general industrial can stop its sequential deceleration.
• Whether the relative strength in the Americas and China/Asia can continue.
• Whether decelerating sectors such as Oil & Gas, marine, and vehicles weaken further.
• Whether data center capital expenditure expectations continue to be the core driver for the industrial and technology/semi supply chains.
• The impact of input cost pressures such as commodities, components, and labor on margins.