Goldman Sachs Global Weekly Outlook: Focus on Central Bank Meetings and Key Economic Data from May 25 to 31
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Goldman Sachs Global Weekly Outlook: Focus on Central Bank Meetings and Key Economic Data from May 25 to 31
The report reviews the major global central bank decisions and economic data releases in the coming week, and highlights Goldman Sachs forecasts that are stronger or weaker than Bloomberg consensus.
- Central banks including South Africa, New Zealand, Israel, and Hungary will hold meetings this week; Goldman Sachs forecasts Israel's policy rate at 4.0%, above the 3.75% consensus.
- Goldman Sachs' central bank forecasts in line with consensus include New Zealand at 2.25%, South Africa at 7.0%, Hungary at 6.25%, and South Korea at 2.5%.
- Among key global indicators, core PCE inflation is the only highlighted major global indicator this week, and Goldman Sachs' view is in line with consensus.
- Goldman Sachs' stronger-than-consensus non-consensus forecasts include US personal spending month-over-month at 0.7%, Brazil current account at USD 700.0 million, and Chile unemployment rate at 8.8%.
- Goldman Sachs' weaker-than-consensus forecasts include US PCE year-over-year at 3.78%, Brazil unemployment rate at 6.1%, and Poland CPI year-over-year at 3.4%.
Report interpretation
Overview
This is a global weekly macro outlook published by Goldman Sachs' economics research team, covering central bank decisions and economic data due between May 25 and May 31, 2026. The report focuses on comparing Goldman Sachs forecasts with Bloomberg consensus and highlighting which forecasts represent relatively stronger or weaker non-consensus views.
Core views
The core view is that market attention in the coming week will center on central bank meetings across multiple countries and US PCE-related data. Goldman Sachs forecasts Israel's policy rate above consensus; its rate forecasts for New Zealand, South Africa, Hungary, and South Korea are in line with consensus. On the data side, Goldman Sachs is relatively stronger than consensus on US personal spending month-over-month, Brazil's current account, and Chile's unemployment rate; it is relatively weaker than consensus on US PCE year-over-year, Brazil's unemployment rate, and Poland's CPI year-over-year.
Analysis framework
The report uses an event-calendar and consensus-gap analysis framework: it first lists the important central bank meetings and key data releases in the coming week, then compares Goldman Sachs economists' forecasts with Bloomberg consensus and prior readings, and finally standardizes the forecast gaps using the historical standard deviation of data surprises to identify the views that deviate most from consensus.
Methodology notes
Use the OIS curve to estimate market pricing for central bank meetings
The report explains that Goldman Sachs uses GS Quant to extract market-implied rates from the 1-day tenor OIS receiver curve, and compares the implied rate differences between contracts maturing before and after the outlook week, attributing the gap to market expectations for central bank decisions. If a country does not have an OIS curve, it is usually excluded from the market pricing indicator; Brazil is the exception, using pricing from the CDIE Bloomberg page.
Standardize the gap between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus using the historical standard deviation of surprises
The surprise consensus score first calculates the historical surprises between Bloomberg consensus and actual releases for each indicator since 2000, and then standardizes the difference between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus using the standard deviation of that series, making deviations comparable across countries and indicators; the score is capped at plus or minus 5.
Subjective screening of the most important global data releases
Key global indicators are selected subjectively by Goldman Sachs, mainly covering inflation, activity, and employment data in the countries it covers; the highlighted key global indicator this week is core PCE inflation.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Global Rates MarketsCentral bank meetings and OIS-implied rates directly affect short-end rate pricing.
- Strengths
- The report clearly lists differences between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus across multiple central banks, helping identify rate risk points before and after meetings.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide specific trading recommendations, nor does it fully show pricing across each country's yield curve.
- Comparison
- The Israel forecast is relatively more hawkish than consensus; forecasts for New Zealand, South Africa, Hungary, and South Korea are in line with consensus.
- Risks
- Actual central bank communication, voting splits, or policy statement wording may matter more than the rate outcome itself.
- US Dollar and US Macro-Linked AssetsUS PCE and personal spending data affect inflation expectations, real rates, and pricing of US dollar assets.
- Strengths
- The report provides Goldman Sachs forecasts, consensus, and prior readings for both US personal spending month-over-month and PCE year-over-year.
- Weaknesses
- The report only provides a weekly data preview and does not develop a full scenario analysis for the Fed policy path.
- Comparison
- Goldman Sachs is above consensus on US personal spending month-over-month, but below consensus on PCE year-over-year, so the signal is not one-directional.
- Risks
- If the data are released opposite to forecasts, markets may quickly reprice inflation and rate-cut expectations.
- Emerging Market Macro AssetsData from Brazil, Chile, Poland, and others may affect local currencies, bonds, and equity market risk sentiment.
- Strengths
- The report identifies non-consensus points such as Brazil's current account, Brazil's unemployment rate, Chile's unemployment rate, and Poland's CPI.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide country-level asset allocation conclusions or risk premium estimates.
- Comparison
- The Brazil current account forecast is stronger than consensus, while the Brazil unemployment rate forecast is weaker than consensus, indicating mixed macro signals.
- Risks
- The release dates of some emerging market data may be delayed, and actual publication timing is determined by the releasing institutions.
Key data
- Bank of Israel Policy Rate ForecastGS 4.0%, consensus 3.75%, previous 4.0%Goldman Sachs forecast is stronger than consensus.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy Rate ForecastGS 2.25%, consensus 2.25%, previous 2.25%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
- South African Reserve Bank Policy Rate ForecastGS 7.0%, consensus 7.0%, previous 6.75%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus, but above the previous reading.
- National Bank of Hungary Policy Rate ForecastGS 6.25%, consensus 6.25%, previous 6.25%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
- Bank of Korea Policy Rate ForecastGS 2.5%, consensus 2.5%, previous 2.5%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
- US Personal Spending Month-over-MonthGS 0.7%, consensus 0.5%, previous 0.9%Goldman Sachs forecast is stronger than consensus.
- Brazil Current AccountGS USD 700.0 million, consensus USD -90.0 million, previous USD -6036.3 millionGoldman Sachs forecast is significantly stronger than consensus.
- Chile Unemployment RateGS 8.8%, consensus 9.0%, previous 8.9%An unemployment rate below consensus indicates a relatively stronger labor market forecast.
- US PCE Year-over-YearGS 3.78%, consensus 3.9%, previous 3.5%Goldman Sachs forecast is weaker than consensus.
- Brazil Unemployment RateGS 6.1%, consensus 6.0%, previous 6.1%Goldman Sachs forecast is weaker than consensus.
- Poland CPI Year-over-YearGS 3.4%, consensus 3.7%, previous 3.2%Goldman Sachs forecast is weaker than consensus.
Impact & implications
For investors, the report's main value lies in identifying events in the coming week that could trigger volatility in rates, currencies, and macro assets. Central bank rate outcomes that deviate from consensus could affect local yield curves and currencies; US PCE-related data will affect market pricing for the Fed path and US dollar assets; current account, unemployment, and inflation data in emerging markets may influence local bonds, exchange rates, and risk sentiment.
Risks
- Differences between forecasts and consensus do not automatically translate into tradable returns; market reactions after release also depend on positioning, narrative, and policy communication.
- The release dates of some emerging market indicators are uncertain, which may affect the timing of event-driven trading.
- The market pricing methodology in the report depends on OIS curves or alternative pricing data, and comparability is weaker for countries lacking corresponding curves.
- Goldman Sachs research disclosures indicate that the information and views are as of the report date, may change subsequently, and are not guaranteed to be updated continuously.
What to watch
- Central bank decisions and statement wording from South Africa, New Zealand, Israel, Hungary, and others.
- US core PCE inflation, PCE year-over-year, and personal spending month-over-month.
- Whether Brazil current account and unemployment data validate Goldman Sachs' differentiated view.
- Whether Chile unemployment rate and Poland CPI year-over-year show bigger-than-expected deviations.
- The actual reaction of yield curves, exchange rates, and risk assets to consensus gaps after the data are released.