The new L6 strengthens competitiveness in the five-seat SUV segment through same-price upgrades

Overview

This report focuses on the product competitiveness and delivery outlook following the launch of Li Auto's new L6. The new L6 is launched at a single configuration price of Rmb249.8k. While maintaining the same entry price as the 2025 model, it adds a larger battery, faster charging, a stronger smart-driving chip, upgraded cockpit displays, and an all-aluminum suspension. Morgan Stanley believes it offers a more attractive value proposition in the Rmb250-300k five-seat SUV market.

Core views

The core view is that the new L6's combination of features and pricing will broaden its appeal to young families and strengthen its competitiveness versus models such as the Tesla Model Y, Xiaomi YU7, and ONVO L80. The report expects L6 monthly sales to recover from an average of about 5k units in 1H26 to above 10k units in the coming months; together with contributions from the L8/L9, Li Auto's overall deliveries are expected to grow month over month from July and return to year-over-year growth in 3Q26.

Analysis framework

The report combines product upgrades, the same-price strategy, peer specification comparisons, delivery pace expectations, and DCF valuation to assess the impact of the L6 facelift on Li Auto's sales momentum and stock price target. Peer comparisons cover dimensions such as wheelbase, powertrain type, LiDAR, smart-driving chips, battery range, and price range.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsprobability_weighted_dcf

  probability-weighted DCF valuation

  The target price is derived from the ADR target price and converted using an HKD/USD exchange rate of 7.8; bull/base/bear scenario weights are 25%/50%/25%, and base-case assumptions include WACC of 15.9%, beta of 2.1, and a long-term growth rate of 3%.

• ratingrelative_stock_rating

  relative rating system

  Morgan Stanley's Overweight means the stock is expected to generate a risk-adjusted total return over the next 12-18 months above the average of the analyst's industry coverage universe; the industry view In-Line means industry performance is expected to be broadly consistent with the relevant benchmark.

• product_competitionpeer_product_benchmarking

  horizontal comparison of peer product specifications

  The report compares the Li Auto L6 with models such as the ONVO L80, Xiaomi YU7, Tesla Model Y, ZEEKR 7X, NIO ES6, and AITO M8 to assess the relative attractiveness of pricing, range, smart-driving hardware, and space specifications.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Li Auto Inc. (2015.HK)

  Primary coverage target, Hong Kong-listed common stock

  Strengths

  The new L6's same-price upgrade, recovery potential in L-series deliveries, and significant upside from the DCF target price versus the current share price.

  Weaknesses

  The recent delivery base is relatively low, and the recovery in L6 deliveries from an average of about 5k units in 1H26 to above 10k units still needs to be validated.

  Comparison

  At the Rmb249.8k price point, the L6 competes with models such as the Tesla Model Y, Xiaomi YU7, and ONVO L80, and strengthens differentiation through its EREV route, 300km battery range, and upgraded smart-driving hardware.

  Risks

  Component bottlenecks, delays in model launches, slower auto sales growth, and intensified industry competition.

• Li Auto Inc. (LI.O)

  The same company's ADR, serving as a reference for the conversion of the Hong Kong target price

  Strengths

  The ADR target price is one of the bases for deriving the Hong Kong target price, and the report also discloses LI.O's historical ratings and target price.

  Weaknesses

  There are exchange-rate and market-liquidity differences between the ADR and the Hong Kong stock.

  Comparison

  The Hong Kong target price is derived from the ADR target price using HKD/USD 7.8.

  Risks

  Exchange-rate changes, cross-market valuation differences, and the same fundamental risks.

Key data

• New L6 priceRmb249.8kSingle configuration, matching the entry price of the 2025 model.
• Battery capacity51kWhUsed to increase battery range from 212km to 300km.
• CLTC battery range300kmIn the peer table, Li Auto L6 range is 300km.
• Fast-charging capability5C，12分钟The report says 5C fast charging reduces charging time to 12 minutes.
• Smart-driving chip computing powerM100，1,280 TOPSUsed to address the shortcomings of the previous generation and improve the intelligent user experience.
• Target priceHK$78.50Corresponding to 2015.HK; the target price shown in the report table is HK$78.50.
• Current priceHK$48.64Closing price on July 16.
• RatingOverweightIndustry view is In-Line.
• Expected monthly L6 deliveries10k+ unitsThe report expects the run rate to exceed 10k units in the coming months.
• Average monthly L6 deliveries in 1H26约5k unitsThe report states the first-half average was about 5k units.
• DCF scenario weights25%/50%/25%Corresponding to bull/base/bear scenarios, respectively.
• Base valuation assumptionsWACC 15.9%，beta 2.1，长期增长3%Used for the DCF base case.

Impact & implications

If the new L6 recovers sales momentum as expected, Li Auto's short-term delivery trend will improve from the pressure seen in the first half and may return to year-over-year growth in 3Q26. At the product level, the same-price, higher-spec strategy improves the L6's value for money in the mainstream five-seat SUV price band; at the capital markets level, the Overweight rating and target price imply substantial upside, but the path to realization still depends on the sales ramp-up, competitive dynamics, and macro demand.

Risks

• Component bottlenecks causing unexpected supply disruptions.
• Delays in model launches.
• Slower growth in auto sales.
• Faster- or slower-than-expected L-series sales ramp-up will affect margins and delivery pace.
• BEV model growth falling short of expectations.
• Smart-driving development progressing more slowly than expected.
• A weaker macro outlook or intensified industry competition could weigh on valuation scenario weights.

What to watch

• Delivery launch and initial order feedback within one week after the new L6 goes on sale.
• Whether L6 monthly deliveries can exceed 10k units in the coming months.
• Whether Li Auto's overall deliveries improve month over month starting in July.
• Whether overall deliveries return to year-over-year growth in 3Q26.
• The contribution of L8/L9 to delivery recovery.
• Changes in pricing and specifications of competitors such as Tesla Model Y, Xiaomi YU7, and ONVO L80 in the Rmb250-300k five-seat SUV market.
• The impact of L6 hardware upgrades on gross margin and user-experience reputation.