April OEM Orders Diverge; Cautious View for H2 Reiterated
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April OEM Orders Diverge; Cautious View for H2 Reiterated
Asia-Pacific textile, apparel, and footwear OEM orders showed divergence in April; Makalot grew driven by World Cup themes, while Eclac declined due to shipping delays; Goldman Sachs reiterates a cautious outlook on recovery magnitude for H2.
- April OEM orders mixed: Makalot +10%, Yue Yuen OEM +7%, Eclat -4%, Feng Tay -6%.
- Pou Sheng International April sales flat YoY, in line with Q2 forecast, mainly driven by low base effects.
- US consumer demand remains resilient, but European trends are more subdued with persistent declines in consumer confidence.
- Geopolitical tensions and rising input costs may compress OEM margins, with impacts expected to surface as early as end of 2Q26.
- Adidas Q1 results beat expectations, boosting China OEMs; Puma's destocking is on track but procurement remains cautious.
Report interpretation
Overview
This monthly tracker report by Goldman Sachs focuses on the Asia-Pacific textiles, apparel, and footwear sector, analyzing order performance of major OEMs in April 2026, global consumption trends, and upstream raw material cost changes. The core conclusion indicates divergent OEM order performance in April: some companies benefited from event-driven catalysts or base effects to achieve growth, while others declined due to shipping delays and weak demand. Given geopolitical tensions, rising input costs, and adjustments in major brand strategies, the firm reiterates a cautious view on the scale of order volume and margin recovery for the remainder of the year.
Core views
OEM order performance showed clear divergence. Makalot's April revenue grew 10% YoY, driven primarily by World Cup-themed orders; volume increased 10% while average selling price (ASP) rose 2%. Yue Yuen's OEM sales grew 7% YoY, largely benefiting from order timing shifts due to Indonesian holidays; however, combining March-April figures shows a 2% YoY decline in orders. Eclat's April revenue fell 4% YoY, primarily impacted by shipping delays caused by the Middle East conflict, with approximately NT$300 million in shipments postponed. Feng Tay's April revenue decreased 6% YoY, with pressure on margins and net profit margins below Goldman Sachs estimates, mainly due to the continued negative impact of Nike's supply chain cost-cutting plan. In the retail sector, Pou Sheng International reported April sales flat YoY, an improvement from -6% in March, primarily driven by a lower comparison base, consistent with Goldman Sachs' Q2 2026 forecast. Yue Yuen and Pou Sheng are scheduled to release Q1 earnings in mid-May, with market focus on details regarding softness in their OEM segment margins. Global consumer demand shows regional divergence. US market demand currently remains resilient; most companies reported Q1 beats and maintained or raised guidance, with store foot traffic improving sequentially in April. However, Goldman Sachs' US Consumer Team downgraded its 2026 disposable income growth forecast for the US to 3.7%, reflecting concerns over slowing personal income growth. European market trends are more muted; growth forecasts for France and Germany for 2026 were downgraded, UK high street sales declined YoY, and consumer confidence remains at historically low levels. Goldman Sachs' Macro Team expects that consumer health in developed markets will deteriorate further in the coming months due to inflation and activity resistance triggered by the Middle East war. Dynamics among brands had mixed impacts on OEMs. Adidas' Q1 results beat expectations, with strong revenue growth of 17% in China; its robust growth trajectory and World Cup dividends will continue to support revenues for related OEM firms. Puma's Q1 results also exceeded expectations; inventory cleanup progressed slightly faster than planned, but given its transition and destocking phase, procurement strategy remained cautious. Goldman Sachs expects Puma orders for Shenzhou and Hua Li in 2026 to decline YoY.
Analysis framework
The firm employs an integrated top-down and bottom-up analytical framework. First, it tracks monthly high-frequency data on sales and order changes for major OEMs (such as Yue Yuen, Makalot, Eclat, and Feng Tay) and retailers (Pou Sheng) to identify short-term operating momentum. Second, it combines macro consumer data, consumer confidence indices, and brand earnings reports from key global markets (US, Europe) to assess the health of end-demand and its potential transmission upstream. Finally, it monitors trends in upstream raw materials (crude oil, cotton, synthetic fibers) and potential supply chain disruptions from geopolitics (e.g., shipping), synthesizing judgments on OEM margin pressures and earnings visibility for upcoming quarters.
Methodology notes
Industry Chain Transmission Mechanism
Analyzes how terminal brand sales and consumer demand transmit orders upstream to OEM manufacturers, and how fluctuations in raw material costs affect mid-stream manufacturing margins via the supply chain.
Inventory Cycle Analysis
By observing changes in brand inventory levels (e.g., Puma's destocking progress), determines whether procurement strategies are in a restocking or destocking phase to predict upstream OEM order prosperity.
Volume-Price Decomposition Analysis
Decomposes revenue growth into Volume and Average Selling Price (ASP) dimensions to more clearly identify whether growth is driven by demand expansion or product upgrades/inflation, as seen in Makalot's volume increase and price rise.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Makalot (1477.TW)Beneficiary
- Strengths
- April revenue up 10%, driven by World Cup-themed orders; management maintains full-year guidance
- Weaknesses
- Macroeconomic volatility; Q3 order visibility yet to be determined
- Comparison
- Outperformed Eclat and Feng Tay
- Risks
- Raw material cost pressures; macro demand uncertainty
- Yue Yuen (0551.HK)Neutral to Cautious
- Strengths
- April OEM sales up 7%; supported by Adidas orders
- Weaknesses
- Q1 net profit below expectations; weak OEM margins
- Comparison
- Short-term data distorted by holidays; awaits detailed May earnings report
- Risks
- Slow margin recovery; brand destocking pressure
- Eclat (1476.TW)Short-term Impact
- Strengths
- Q1 margins beat expectations; successful launch of new products and high-margin clients
- Weaknesses
- April revenue down 4% due to shipping delays; Q3 capacity not fully utilized
- Comparison
- Significantly affected by external logistics disruptions
- Risks
- Persistent shipping delays; monitoring of H2 demand
- Feng Tay Enterprise (9910.TW)Negative Impact
- Weaknesses
- April revenue down 6%; margin pressure; negatively impacted by Nike's cost-cutting plans
- Comparison
- Underperformed peers
- Risks
- Policy pressure from major client Nike; negative operating leverage effect
- Pou Sheng International (3813.HK)Neutral
- Strengths
- April sales flat YoY, improved from March; aligned with Q2 forecast
- Weaknesses
- Growth driven primarily by low base rather than strong demand
- Risks
- Declining consumer confidence; intense market competition
Key data
- Makalot April Revenue Growth Rate+10%YoY growth, driven by World Cup-themed orders
- Yue Yuen April OEM Sales Growth Rate+7%YoY growth, impacted by Indonesia holiday timing shift
- Eclat April Revenue Growth Rate-4%YoY growth, impacted by war-related shipping delays
- Feng Tay April Revenue Growth Rate-6%YoY growth, quoted in TWD
- Pou Sheng International April Sales Growth Rate0%Flat YoY; was -6% in March
- US 2026 Disposable Cash Flow Growth Forecast+3.7%New Goldman Sachs forecast, previously +4.2%
- Adidas China Region 1Q26 Revenue Growth Rate+17%Constant exchange rate, accelerating growth
Impact & implications
The report suggests that while some OEMs show short-term rebounds due to specific factors (e.g., World Cup orders, base effects), the overall recovery magnitude for annual orders and profitability may be limited against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, elevated input costs, and cost-cutting initiatives by major brands like Nike. Investors should monitor the duration of high raw material prices for potential erosion of margins in late 2Q26 and beyond, as well as the impact of deteriorating consumer health in developed markets on subsequent demand. Adidas' strong performance provides some support to its supply chain partners, but cautious procurement attitudes from brands like Puma signal structural divergence.
Risks
- Escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflict leading to higher oil prices, Red Sea port congestion, and exacerbated shipping delays
- Persistently high raw material input costs forcing OEMs to absorb some costs, damaging margins
- Continued decline in consumer confidence in developed markets (US, Europe); inflation and high energy costs erode household cash flow
- Major brands (e.g., Nike) continuing supply chain cost-cutting plans, suppressing OEM pricing power
- Global macro volatility reducing brand ordering willingness and lowering order visibility
What to watch
- Clarity on Q3 peak season orders (US holiday demand) from late May to early June
- Q1 earnings releases and management margin guidance from Yue Yuen and Pou Sheng International on May 13-14
- Trends in raw material prices, specifically whether oil and synthetic fiber prices fall by end of 2Q26
- Actual spending changes by US consumers amidst high energy costs and signs of European consumption recovery
- Subsequent procurement strategies and inventory level changes of major brands like Adidas and Puma