April China Materials Trade Data Is Mixed: Aluminum Exports Rebound, Steel Demand Weak, Coal Imports Decline

Overview

The report reviews China Materials sector trade data for April 2026, covering steel, copper, aluminum, iron ore and coal. The key change is that exports of aluminum and aluminum products began to rebound significantly, mainly because tighter overseas market conditions from Middle East supply disruptions, rising LME prices, and a wider Chinese export arbitrage window supported it. Copper imports also improved due to a price pullback and a short-lived opening in import arbitrage; by contrast, steel exports were weaker than expected and apparent steel demand continued to contract, while coal imports were hurt by seasonal soft demand and still elevated imported coal prices.

Core views

The core view of the report is that conditions within the materials segment are clearly differentiated: Aluminum export is the strongest marginal improvement signal, but domestic aluminum inventory is still at historical highs and destocking has not yet begun. Improved copper imports and inventory drawdown suggest that downstream restocking may be resuming. On the steel side, both exports and output remained weak, and demand contraction pressure persists. Coal imports are down in the short term, but power-plant replenishment before the summer electricity peak may support May imports and near-term coal prices.

Analysis framework

The report uses China’s April import-export data as the backbone and combines year-on-year and month-on-month changes, inventories, price arbitrage, supply disruptions, steel mill output, and seasonal demand to judge marginal shifts across sub-sectors. For steel, it extrapolates year-on-year changes in CISA-member blast furnace daily output to national crude steel output and estimates apparent steel consumption. For copper and aluminum, it focuses on import/export arbitrage, price moves, inventories, and the severity of overseas supply tightness. For coal, it focuses on the seasonal switch between off-peak and peak demand, imported coal pricing, and power-plant stockpiling behavior.

Methodology notes

• Industry Trade Data AnalysisYoY/MoM Trade Data Tracking

  Use monthly import-export volumes, year-on-year, and month-on-month changes to judge marginal changes in commodity supply-demand balance.

  The report compares April versus March and versus year-ago data on steel, copper, aluminum, iron ore, and coal imports and exports to assess shifts in demand, supply, and trade arbitrage.

• Commodity Arbitrage AnalysisImport/Export Arbitrage Window

  Differences between domestic and overseas price levels and transport cost changes affect import and export behavior.

  Copper prices fell in March and temporarily opened an import arbitrage channel, prompting Chinese buyers to restart purchases; on aluminum, overseas supply disturbances lifted LME prices and widened the export arbitrage, supporting a rebound in Chinese aluminum product exports.

• Supply-Demand Inventory AnalysisInventory Drawdown and Build-Up Observation

  Inventory changes help validate apparent demand and the tightness or looseness of supply-demand balance.

  Copper imports increased while inventories fell sharply, suggesting possible downstream restocking; aluminum exports strengthened but domestic inventories remained at record highs, indicating that domestic demand or destocking has not improved.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Aluminum and Aluminum Products

  April exports improved significantly, making this the clearest positive marginal change in the report.

  Strengths

  Export volumes rose 23% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year, with overseas supply disturbances and higher LME prices expanding the export arbitrage.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic aluminum inventories rose to historical highs and have not started to draw down, indicating domestic supply-demand is not yet tight enough.

  Comparison

  Aluminum exports performed better than steel exports and coal imports, making it the clearest marginal improvement within the materials subsector.

  Risks

  If overseas supply normalizes, LME prices fall, or the export arbitrage window narrows, the strength of exports could weaken.

• Steel

  Exports and apparent consumption were weak.

  Strengths

  April steel exports improved 4% month-on-month.

  Weaknesses

  Down 9% year-on-year, with improvement slower than expected; estimated apparent steel consumption was down 6.3% year-on-year and down 5.9% month-on-month.

  Comparison

  Compared with aluminum and copper, steel demand signals are weaker.

  Risks

  Weak domestic demand, slower export recovery, and declining steel mill output may continue to pressure steel-chain profitability.

• Copper

  Imports improved with concurrent inventory drawdown, indicating some recovery in demand or restocking.

  Strengths

  Copper and copper product imports were up 9% month-on-month and up 3% year-on-year; strong inventory drawdown may be driven by downstream restocking.

  Weaknesses

  Copper ore and concentrate imports were down 11% month-on-month and down 20% year-on-year.

  Comparison

  Copper demand signals are better than steel but less direct than aluminum's export rebound.

  Risks

  A renewed rise in copper prices could close the import arbitrage, while changes in concentrate supply and treatment charges could hit smelter margins.

• Iron Ore

  Imports were broadly flat, but inventories remain high.

  Strengths

  April imports were up 1% year-on-year, and port inventories began to decline slowly.

  Weaknesses

  Down 1% month-on-month, port inventories still at elevated levels, and pig iron output is down 4% year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Iron ore’s marginal supply-demand improvement is weaker than aluminum and is constrained by weak steel demand.

  Risks

  If steel production remains weak, elevated inventories may limit iron ore price flexibility.

• Coal

  April imports declined, but summer replenishment may provide near-term support.

  Strengths

  The report expects May coal imports to rebound month-on-month as power generators rebuild stock before the summer load peak, supporting nearby coal price upside.

  Weaknesses

  April imports were down 13% year-on-year and down 15% month-on-month, reflecting weaker seasonal demand and high imported-coal prices.

  Comparison

  Current coal data is weaker than aluminum and copper, but there is a seasonal rebound indication.

  Risks

  If power-plant restocking falls short, imported coal prices remain high, or demand recovery is weaker than expected, near-term coal price support may fade.

Key data

• Steel Exports9.5 MtIn April 2026, down 9% year-on-year and up 4% month-on-month, with improvement slower than report expectations.
• Estimated Apparent Steel ConsumptionYoY -6.3%, MoM -5.9%Estimated based on CISA-member steel mill daily output down 5.7% year-on-year and assuming national crude steel output moved similarly.
• Copper and Copper Product Imports452 ktIn April 2026, up 9% month-on-month and up 3% year-on-year.
• Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports2.35 mln tonnesIn April 2026, down 11% month-on-month and down 20% year-on-year.
• Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports598 ktIn April 2026, up 23% month-on-month and up 15% year-on-year, the highest since November 2024.
• Iron Ore Imports104 MtIn April 2026, down 1% month-on-month and up 1% year-on-year; port inventories are declining slowly but remain elevated.
• Coal Imports33 mntIn April 2026, down 13% year-on-year and down 15% month-on-month.
• 4M26 Coal Output149 mntDown 2% year-on-year for the first four months.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the aluminum export rebound is positive for Chinese aluminum-chain companies with export exposure or aluminum-price leverage, but high domestic inventory undermines confirmation of sustained pricing improvement. Improved copper imports and inventory drawdown are mildly constructive for copper demand expectations, while the decline in concentrate imports and evolving treatment charges still need monitoring. The steel-demand and export shortfall remains a negative for the steel chain. The near-term weakening in coal imports reflects seasonal pressure, but stockpiling before the summer peak could support nearby coal prices.

Risks

• Although aluminum exports are strong, China’s aluminum inventory remains at historical highs; if inventories cannot be drawn down, pricing and margin improvements may be limited.
• Apparent steel demand continues to fall, and steel export improvement is slower than expected, which may weigh on the steel and iron ore chains.
• Improved copper imports rely on a price pullback and open arbitrage window; if prices rebound and arbitrage closes, import momentum may weaken.
• Coal imports are pressured by weak seasonal demand and high imported coal prices; if summer stockpiling is below expectations, nearby coal-price support may be insufficient.
• The report discloses that Morgan Stanley has business or potential business relationships with multiple covered companies, and investors should monitor research independence and conflict-of-interest disclosures.

What to watch

• Whether China’s aluminum inventories begin to draw down from historical highs.
• Whether LME aluminum prices, overseas supply disturbances, and the Chinese aluminum export arbitrage window remain in place.
• Whether May coal imports rebound month-on-month due to power-plant replenishment ahead of summer peak demand.
• Whether steel exports, CISA steel mill daily output, and national crude steel output continue to weaken.
• Copper prices, Yangshan premium, copper inventories, and the intensity of downstream restocking.
• The pace of iron ore port-inventory drawdown and supply effects once BHP seaborne cargo purchasing restrictions are lifted.