Goldman Sachs reviews Australian gold, lithium and uranium coverage: prefers gold and WA1, Sell on PLS, MIN, GGP, PDN

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs coverage summary report on Australian resource stocks, covering gold, lithium, uranium, and certain related mining assets. The report lists ratings, latest share prices, 12-month target prices, NAV, P/NAV, NTM EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, TSR and FCF yield for covered names, alongside commodity and FX forecasts, spot-price scenarios, peer valuations and project resource comparisons.

Core views

The report's views are highly differentiated: there are many Buy-rated gold-related names, including NEM, NST, BGL, RMS, WGX and PNR; in lithium, PLS and MIN are rated Sell, reflecting caution on a decline from spot lithium prices toward forecast prices and valuation pressure; in uranium, PDN is rated Sell, while DYL and BOE are Neutral; WA1, though a niobium theme, is rated Buy in the coverage summary and has the highest target upside.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines company-level 12-month target prices, NAV valuation, EV/EBITDA multiples, FCF yield and TSR with commodity price forecasts, FX assumptions, spot-price scenarios and global peer resource/production metrics to judge valuation attractiveness and price sensitivity across different resource stocks.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/NAV

  Comparison between price and net asset value

  The report uses P/NAV to measure the premium or discount of the share price relative to NAV, and assesses the long-term commodity prices implied by the current share price.

• Valuation methodsNTM EV/EBITDA

  Next twelve months enterprise value/EBITDA multiple

  The report compares current multiples with target multiples to assess whether valuations already reflect earnings, cost and commodity price outlooks.

• Cash flowFCF Yield

  Free cash flow yield

  The report uses NTM FCF yield and future FCF/production metrics to compare the cash return profiles of resource stocks.

• Scenario analysisGSe Base Case vs Spot Prices

  Goldman Sachs base case versus spot prices

  The report compares Goldman Sachs commodity price and FX forecasts with spot prices to assess the sensitivity of target prices, NAV and earnings to short-term and long-term price changes.

• Internal frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple and Integrated factor profile

  As described in the disclosures, the Goldman Sachs factor profile provides stock-specific investment context relative to the market and industry peers through growth, financial returns, valuation multiples and integrated scores.

• Mergers and acquisitionsM&A Rank

  Potential acquisition probability score

  Goldman Sachs uses an M&A ranking from 1 to 3 to assess acquisition probability, where 1 indicates high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; companies ranked 1 or 2 may have M&A factors incorporated into target prices.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NEM

  Buy; Gold

  Strengths

  Target price A$172.30, above the latest price of A$136.87; TSR 27%; NTM FCF yield 10%; P/NAV 0.83.

  Weaknesses

  Still exposed to changes in gold prices, exchange rates and valuation multiples for large-cap gold stocks.

  Comparison

  A large-cap Buy-rated gold name in the coverage table, with market cap of US$101.8bn.

  Risks

  If gold prices are below Goldman Sachs forecasts or costs rise, NAV and FCF could come under pressure.

• NST

  Buy; Gold

  Strengths

  Target price A$25.20 versus latest price A$20.38; target upside 24%, TSR 26%; P/NAV 0.82.

  Weaknesses

  NTM FCF yield is only 2%, implying relatively limited cash flow leverage.

  Comparison

  Like NEM, it is a large-cap Buy-rated gold name, though with a smaller market cap.

  Risks

  Gold prices, production and AISC changes could affect realization of the target price.

• BGL

  Buy; Gold

  Strengths

  Target price A$1.90 versus latest price A$1.28; target upside 48%, TSR 49%; P/NAV 0.64; NTM FCF yield 11%.

  Weaknesses

  Small- and mid-cap gold stocks are more sensitive to execution, costs and financing conditions.

  Comparison

  Shows a larger discount and higher target return than many gold peers.

  Risks

  If project progress, production growth or gold prices disappoint, valuation re-rating could be delayed.

• RMS

  Buy; Gold

  Strengths

  Target price A$5.40 versus latest price A$2.97; target upside 82%, TSR 83%; P/NAV 0.56.

  Weaknesses

  NTM FCF yield is 3%, making near-term cash returns less compelling than PNR or WGX.

  Comparison

  Ranks near the top among Buy-rated gold names for target return.

  Risks

  Valuation re-rating depends on gold prices, production delivery and market acceptance of target multiples.

• WGX

  Buy; Gold

  Strengths

  Target price A$7.85 versus latest price A$4.81; target upside 63%, TSR 66%; NTM FCF yield 12%; P/NAV 0.61.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to changes in gold prices and operating costs.

  Comparison

  Among Buy-rated gold names, it combines relatively high TSR with relatively high FCF yield.

  Risks

  If costs, hedging or production underperform expectations, the FCF advantage could narrow.

• PNR

  Buy; Gold

  Strengths

  Target price A$4.95 versus latest price A$2.40; target upside 106%, TSR 108%; NTM FCF yield 24%; P/NAV 0.54.

  Weaknesses

  High leverage also means greater sensitivity to operating assumptions and commodity price assumptions.

  Comparison

  Has the highest TSR among Buy-rated gold names in the coverage table.

  Risks

  If gold prices, production or cost control fall short of expectations, target returns could decline materially.

• WA1

  Buy; Niobium

  Strengths

  Target price A$27.30 versus latest price A$11.27; both target upside and TSR are 142%; P/NAV 0.36.

  Weaknesses

  NTM FCF yield is (6%), indicating still-negative near-term free cash flow.

  Comparison

  It is the Buy-rated name with the highest upside in the coverage summary table.

  Risks

  Project delivery, capex, price assumptions and financing conditions are key risks.

• PLS

  Sell; Spodumene/Lithium

  Strengths

  Market cap of US$11.2bn and remains a core covered name in lithium.

  Weaknesses

  Target price A$4.20 is below the latest price A$5.05, with target upside (17%) and TSR (16%); P/NAV 1.36, NTM EV/EBITDA 15.9x.

  Comparison

  The report's lithium price forecasts are materially below spot, creating valuation pressure for lithium miners such as PLS.

  Risks

  If lithium prices stay elevated or demand exceeds expectations, the Sell view could face upside risk.

• MIN

  Sell; Iron ore/Lithium/Mining services

  Strengths

  NTM FCF yield of 7%, with operations spanning multiple resources and services.

  Weaknesses

  Target price A$53.00 is below the latest price A$63.43, with target upside (16%) and TSR (15%); P/NAV 1.40.

  Comparison

  Consistent with the Sell view on lithium-related names, valuation appears unattractive relative to target price.

  Risks

  Stronger-than-expected iron ore and lithium prices or mining-services profitability could improve risk-reward.

• PDN

  Sell; Uranium

  Strengths

  Long-term uranium price forecasts are above spot, providing medium- to long-term support for the sector.

  Weaknesses

  Target price A$9.70 is only 4% above the latest price A$9.37; NTM FCF yield (2%); current NTM EV/EBITDA is 34.1x, above the target multiple of 25.0x.

  Comparison

  Relative to DYL and BOE at Neutral, PDN faces greater valuation pressure on multiples.

  Risks

  If uranium prices and project performance are materially stronger than forecast, the Sell view carries upside risk.

• GGP

  Sell; Gold/Copper

  Strengths

  Target price A$12.60 still implies 5% target upside versus the latest price A$12.00.

  Weaknesses

  TSR is only 5%, NTM FCF yield 1%; current NTM EV/EBITDA of 6.1x is close to the target multiple of 6.0x.

  Comparison

  Among gold-related names, its risk-reward is clearly weaker than Buy-rated names such as PNR, RMS, WGX and BGL.

  Risks

  Stronger-than-expected gold or copper prices could improve valuation, but the report sees insufficient relative attractiveness.

Key data

• Report date and pricing dateJune 2026; priced as of 26 June 2026The cover page lists the report month and the pricing reference date.
• AuthorsHugo Nicolaci; Paul Young; Marcus Dosanjh; Kavya BalajiAll authors are listed on the cover page and are affiliated with Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd.
• Buy-rated namesNEM, NST, BGL, RMS, WGX, PNR, WA1The Buy list is shown directly on the cover page.
• Sell-rated namesPLS, MIN, GGP, PDNThe Sell list is shown directly on the cover page.
• Gold price forecastsSpot US$4,012/oz; 2026E US$4,664/oz; LT real US$3,800/oz; LT nominal US$4,405/ozFrom the Commodity & FX Forecasts table.
• Uranium price forecastsSpot US$86/lb; 2026E US$86/lb; 2027E US$90/lb; 2028E US$98/lb; 2029E US$112/lb; LT nominal US$122/lbLong-term forecasts are above spot, and the report also includes uranium supply-demand models and project comparison sections.
• Spodumene 6% price forecastsSpot US$2,350/t; 2026E US$1,700/t; 2027E US$1,308/t; LT real US$1,225/t; LT nominal US$1,420/tForecasts are significantly below spot, forming an important backdrop to the cautious view on lithium.
• Highest target upside/TSRWA1: target price A$27.30, latest price A$11.27, target upside 142%, TSR 142%WA1 is the Buy-rated name with the highest target upside in the coverage summary table.
• High-beta Buy-rated gold namesPNR TSR 108%; RMS TSR 83%; WGX TSR 66%; BGL TSR 49%These names are all rated Buy in the coverage summary table and show strongly positive TSR.
• Valuation pressure on typical Sell-rated namesPLS target upside (17%), TSR (16%); MIN target upside (16%), TSR (15%); PDN current NTM EV/EBITDA of 34.1x versus target multiple of 25.0xSell ratings mainly reflect downside to target price or relatively unattractive valuation.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report implies that resource-stock allocation should shift from pure commodity exposure toward screening based on valuation, cash flow and scenario sensitivity. Buy-rated gold names appear more attractive on target price and TSR; in lithium, investors should watch for earnings and NAV downgrade pressure from forecast prices below spot; in uranium, long-term price assumptions are strong, but stock valuations are differentiated, with PDN offering poor risk-reward at elevated multiples.

Risks

• Commodity prices may deviate from Goldman Sachs forecasts, especially differences between gold, lithium and uranium prices versus spot and long-term assumptions.
• Changes in AUD/USD and other exchange rates may affect the revenues, costs and valuations of Australian resource companies.
• If production growth, AISC, cash costs, hedge ratios and capex deviate from expectations, NAV, FCF and target prices will be affected.
• Lithium price forecasts are materially below spot; if the price path changes, Sell or Neutral views on lithium stocks may need to be reassessed.
• Resource comparison metrics such as EV/Resource do not directly represent project economics, development timelines or asset growth potential, and the report also notes limitations in related classifications and methodologies.
• Regulatory disclosures, potential conflicts of interest, investment-banking relationships and regional distribution restrictions may affect how the research report can be used.

What to watch

• Whether gold prices remain near Goldman Sachs' 2026E forecast of US$4,664/oz or diverge from long-term price assumptions.
• Whether Spodumene 6%, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices fall back from spot levels toward Goldman Sachs' forecast path.
• Whether uranium spot and long-term contract prices track the forecast upward path for 2027-2029.
• The impact of AUD/USD changes on the costs, revenues and NAV of Australian resource stocks.
• Delivery of FY26-31E production growth, EBITDA CAGR, FCF yield and unit costs.
• Differences between gold-stock hedge ratios, average hedge gold prices, and spot/forecast gold prices.
• Subsequent Goldman Sachs updates to ratings, target prices, M&A rank or commodity price assumptions.