China’s “new three” exports hit a record high in June, with new energy vehicles becoming the main growth engine

Overview

UBS uses its China green export tracking framework to monitor high-frequency export changes in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, batteries and electrical equipment. In June, China’s total exports of the “new three” reached a record high, with all three segments expanding month-on-month; meanwhile, electrical equipment exports also set a new record. The report believes that global decarbonization, transport electrification, grid construction and energy security demand remain structural supports for China’s green technology exports.

Core views

First, exports of the “new three” reached US$20.8bn in June, showing that growth in China’s green manufacturing exports remains resilient. Second, new energy vehicles led with 116% year-on-year growth, with rising overseas market penetration as the core driver; batteries were supported by both new energy vehicle and energy storage demand, while photovoltaics returned to positive growth. Third, Europe remains the largest destination, but sources of growth are diversifying, with Australia driving Oceania to rapidly become an important incremental market for new energy vehicle exports. Fourth, driven by global power infrastructure investment and energy security demand, electrical equipment is a structural beneficiary beyond the “new three.”

Analysis framework

The report uses UBS Evidence Lab’s China Export Monitor to organize relevant China customs commodity trade data and track export value, month-on-month changes and year-on-year changes by product category, month and export region. The analysis focuses on the total and segment performance of the “new three,” regional destination structure, and export trends in the broader electrification supply chain such as electrical equipment.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingChina Green Export Tracking

  Monthly monitoring of export value, growth rates and regional distribution of China’s green manufacturing products.

  The framework covers new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and batteries, and extends to electrical equipment, identifying demand trends and growth engines through monthly month-on-month, year-on-year and regional share analysis.

• Alternative data and trade statisticsUBS Evidence Lab China Export Monitor

  Constructing analyzable datasets using China customs import and export statistics for specific commodities.

  This dataset is used to observe changes in international trade for specific commodities or bulk products and can provide high-frequency evidence needed for industry and thematic research, but it does not directly constitute investment advice.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China new energy vehicle value chain

  Main driver of export growth in June

  Strengths

  Export value grew 116% year-on-year, Chinese automakers’ overseas market penetration continued to rise, and new markets such as Australia grew rapidly.

  Weaknesses

  Regional demand and overseas market access may cause export volatility.

  Comparison

  Growth was significantly higher than that of batteries and photovoltaics, making it the strongest-performing segment among the “new three.”

  Risks

  Trade barriers, overseas regulatory changes, intensified competition and regional demand pullbacks.

• China battery and energy storage value chain

  Benefiting from dual demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage applications

  Strengths

  June exports reached US$9.2bn, the largest scale among the three major segments, up 30% year-on-year.

  Weaknesses

  Growth was lower than that of new energy vehicles, and demand is sensitive to both automotive and energy storage investment cycles.

  Comparison

  Export scale was slightly higher than that of new energy vehicles, but year-on-year growth was significantly lower.

  Risks

  Overseas capacity localization, price competition, raw material volatility and changes in technology pathways.

• China photovoltaic value chain

  A beneficiary segment of global low-carbon technology demand

  Strengths

  June exports rose 12% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year, ending the previous weak trend and returning to positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  Both export scale and year-on-year growth were lower than those of new energy vehicles and batteries, with relatively weaker resilience.

  Comparison

  It contributed the least among the “new three,” with current growth intensity lagging behind the other two segments.

  Risks

  Overseas trade restrictions, price declines, oversupply and changes in the pace of end-market installations.

• China electrical equipment value chain

  A structural beneficiary of global grid investment and energy security spending

  Strengths

  June exports reached US$14bn and hit a record high, up 33% year-on-year, with destinations covering ASEAN, Europe and North America.

  Weaknesses

  Demand may be affected by global capital expenditure cycles, project progress and regional policies.

  Comparison

  Export scale exceeded that of any single “new three” segment, reflecting growth opportunities in the broader electrification supply chain.

  Risks

  Slowdown in global infrastructure investment, project delays, trade policy changes and exchange rate fluctuations.

Key data

• June “new three” exportsUS$20.8bnUp 11% month-on-month and 54% year-on-year, reaching a record high.
• First-half 2026 “new three” exportsUS$111bnUp 49% year-on-year.
• June new energy vehicle exportsUS$9.1bnUp 14% month-on-month and 116% year-on-year, serving as the main growth driver.
• June battery exportsUS$9.2bnUp 8% month-on-month and 30% year-on-year, supported by new energy vehicle and energy storage demand.
• June photovoltaic exportsUS$2.5bnUp 12% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year, returning to positive growth.
• European market share41%Europe was the largest export destination for China’s “new three” in June.
• Oceania new energy vehicle export share11%Higher than 4% in December 2025; exports in both May and June grew by more than 300% year-on-year, mainly driven by Australia.
• June electrical equipment exportsUS$14bnUp 7% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, reaching a record high; ASEAN, Europe and North America accounted for 22%, 18% and 13%, respectively.

Impact & implications

Export data sends a positive signal for China’s new energy vehicle, battery and electrical equipment value chains, particularly benefiting areas related to rising overseas penetration, expanding energy storage demand and global grid capital expenditure. Regional demand is spreading from Europe to markets such as Oceania, helping reduce reliance on a single market, although Europe still accounts for a relatively high share. Although photovoltaic exports have returned to growth, their growth rate is significantly lower than that of new energy vehicles, and divergence in sector momentum remains.

Risks

• Europe accounts for 41% of “new three” exports, and relatively high regional concentration may amplify the impact of local demand or policy changes.
• Green products such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics may face overseas trade barriers, regulatory changes and local production requirements.
• Although photovoltaic exports have returned to growth, their growth rate is lower than that of new energy vehicles and batteries, and sector momentum divergence may continue.
• Monthly customs data is subject to short-term volatility, and high growth in a single month may not fully represent long-term trends.
• Sustainable investment and ESG lack globally unified definitions, and the importance and classification standards of related issues may change over time.
• The report’s views only reflect the point in time of publication, past performance does not indicate future results, and this report does not provide specific securities investment advice.

What to watch

• Whether exports of the “new three” can continue to maintain relatively high year-on-year growth after reaching a record high.
• Whether China’s new energy vehicle share in Australia and other Oceania markets can continue to rise.
• European market demand, trade policy and changes in its share of China’s green product exports.
• The relative contribution of new energy vehicles and energy storage demand to battery exports.
• Whether the recovery in photovoltaic exports is sustainable, and changes between prices and export value.
• Whether global grid investment and energy security spending can continue to drive electrical equipment exports to new highs.
• Changes in the shares of markets such as ASEAN and North America in China’s electrical equipment exports.