New energy vehicle orders fell 17% WoW in the fourth week of June, weaker than expected

Overview

This report is Citigroup's weekly tracking of new energy vehicle orders for China auto manufacturers. The core conclusion is that industry orders on June 22-28 were weaker than expected. The dealership survey shows that EV orders fell about 17% WoW in the fourth week, while June month-to-date orders were basically flat MoM, weaker than the normal historical pace.

Core views

Citigroup believes that short-term demand momentum for China's new energy vehicles is below expectations. Divergence among brands is clear: BYD significantly outperformed the industry driven by the Great Tang launch, while Geely Galaxy and NIO were also relatively strong; however, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng, Zeekr, and Huawei Harmony all trailed the industry's intra-month pace. If order trends feed through to retail sales, June new energy vehicle retail sales may remain under pressure YoY.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on Citi Research Dealership Check, tracking weekly orders for major new energy vehicle brands and using WoW and month-to-date MoM changes to measure demand momentum. It then extrapolates full-month June EV retail sales volume and YoY change in NEV retail sales under the assumption that the sequential pace of orders is consistent with retail sales growth.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingDealership survey/weekly order tracking

  Observe new energy vehicle demand momentum through weekly orders, MTD MoM, and WoW changes.

  This method can reflect changes in end-market orders relatively quickly, but the relationship with final retail sales may be affected by the order sample, channel coverage, and the conversion rate from orders to deliveries.

• Scenario extrapolationOrder-to-retail sales extrapolation

  Assume that the sequential pace of orders ultimately matches retail sales growth to estimate full-month June retail performance.

  Under the assumption that full-month June NEV retail sales volume is 0% MoM, Citigroup estimates monthly EV retail sales volume at about 915k units and arrives at June NEV retail sales YoY of -17.6%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China new energy vehicle industry

  Research target/industry momentum tracking

  Strengths

  Major brands are still maintaining positive intra-month growth, and high-frequency order data can be used to observe demand changes.

  Weaknesses

  Orders fell WoW in the fourth week of June, and MTD MoM was nearly flat, below the historical pace.

  Comparison

  Industry MTD MoM was -0.1%, weaker than the historical monthly growth pace of more than 10% MoM.

  Risks

  Uncertainty in converting orders into retail sales, changes in promotion cadence, impact from new model launches, and sample coverage bias.

• BYD

  Leading brand in performance

  Strengths

  MTD MoM was +53.5%, driven by the launch of Great Tang, significantly stronger than the industry.

  Weaknesses

  WoW was -33.9%, indicating weekly orders still pulled back.

  Comparison

  MTD MoM was significantly above the industry's -0.1%.

  Risks

  The sustainability of the boost from new products and the conversion from orders to deliveries still need to be verified.

• Geely Galaxy

  Leading brand in performance

  Strengths

  MTD MoM was +23.5%, and WoW was +21.2%.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide more detailed model- or channel-level drivers.

  Comparison

  Both MTD MoM and WoW were clearly better than the industry.

  Risks

  There is still uncertainty over whether strong high-frequency order performance can continue into official retail sales.

• NIO

  A brand relatively outperforming the industry

  Strengths

  MTD MoM was +5.8%, still showing positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  WoW was -20.0%, indicating weakening weekly momentum.

  Comparison

  MTD MoM was better than the industry's -0.1%, but WoW was weaker than the industry.

  Risks

  The weekly decline in orders may affect subsequent monthly sales realization.

• Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng, Zeekr, Huawei Harmony

  A group of brands lagging in order performance

  Strengths

  Some brands, such as Li Auto with +67.8% WoW and Leapmotor with +6.4% WoW, show that short-term volatility is not entirely negative.

  Weaknesses

  All of these brands posted negative MTD MoM, with larger declines for Huawei Harmony, Zeekr, Xpeng, and Li Auto.

  Comparison

  All were below the industry's MTD MoM level of -0.1%.

  Risks

  If weak intra-month orders persist, market expectations for brand sales, share, and earnings recovery may be affected.

Key data

• Fourth-week June EV orders WoW-17.1%Corresponds to June 22-28, based on the dealership survey; the main text states an overall decline of about 17%.
• June MTD industry orders MoM-0.1%Weaker than the historical monthly growth pace of more than 10% MoM.
• BYD MTD MoM53.5%Driven by the launch of Great Tang, leading the industry.
• Geely Galaxy MTD MoM23.5%Among the top-performing brands.
• NIO MTD MoM5.8%Modest positive growth.
• Tesla MTD MoM-0.5%Close to the industry's overall flat level.
• Leapmotor MTD MoM-9.3%Below the industry's intra-month pace.
• Xiaomi MTD MoM-15.1%Below the industry's intra-month pace.
• Li Auto MTD MoM-29.1%Below the industry's intra-month pace.
• Xpeng MTD MoM-31.4%Below the industry's intra-month pace.
• Zeekr MTD MoM-41.6%Significantly below the industry's intra-month pace.
• Huawei Harmony MTD MoM-48.5%The largest decline among the brands in the table.
• Estimated June EV retail volume915k辆Based on the assumption of 0% MoM June NEV retail sales.
• Estimated June NEV retail sales YoY-17.6%The report also gives 6M26 YoY at -15.8%.

Impact & implications

Weaker-than-expected orders may weigh on market expectations for short-term sales and sector momentum in China's new energy vehicle market, especially putting pressure on brands that have clearly lagged in orders during the month. By contrast, BYD and Geely Galaxy posted stronger order performance, which may support expectations for their short-term market share or new product cycles, although BYD's WoW figure was still negative, indicating that the impact of a high base or weekly volatility still needs to be monitored.

Risks

• The dealership survey sample may not fully represent total market orders.
• Order data are not the same as final retail sales; order cancellations, delivery cycles, and inventory strategies can affect conversion.
• New model launches and promotion cadence may cause large swings in weekly data.
• Industry competition, price wars, and weak consumer demand may continue to pressure orders and margins.
• The report's monthly retail sales extrapolation depends on the assumption of 0% MoM June NEV retail sales; if the actual retail cadence differs, the conclusion will change.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent weekly EV orders recover from the low level seen in the fourth week of June.
• Whether official June NEV retail sales come close to the estimated 915k units and -17.6% YoY.
• Whether the order boost from BYD's Great Tang launch can continue.
• Whether the relative strength of Geely Galaxy and NIO can carry through to retail deliveries.
• Whether lagging brands in orders such as Huawei Harmony, Zeekr, Xpeng, and Li Auto see promotional activity or new-product catalysts.