Hermès resale market multiple rebounds, core Birkin/Kelly tracker rises to 1.45x

Overview

This report is a monthly/quarterly update in Bernstein’s global luxury series focused on Hermès resale pricing, with emphasis on tracking premium multiples in the auction market versus retail prices for Birkin, Kelly, Mini Kelly II, and Kelly Pochette. The latest data come from two auctions at Sotheby’s New York and Christie’s Paris, both ending on June 24, 2026. The report believes Hermès secondary-market resale multiples may be starting to stabilize, but more quarterly data are still needed for confirmation.

Core views

The core view is that Hermès resale premiums improved in 2Q26, with the core Birkin/Kelly basket rising to 1.45x from 1.25x in 1Q26, a clear rebound from the 4Q25 trough of 1.22%; the expanded basket also held near 1.66x. Even so, a single quarter is insufficient to establish a trend. Because 3Q26 auctions are more likely to be concentrated in Hong Kong, where resale multiples are lower, the report expects multiples may weaken again. Over the long term, Bernstein remains positive on Hermès’ deep brand equity and its ability to cope with divergence in luxury consumption.

Analysis framework

The report uses a methodology comparing secondary-market auction realized/estimated prices with retail prices, tracking resale premium multiples by bag model and region, while distinguishing between the core tracker and the expanded tracker. The core tracker covers Birkin 25/30 and Kelly 25/28; the expanded tracker further includes Mini Kelly II and Kelly Pochette.

Methodology notes

• Resale price trackingHermès Birkin/Kelly Resale Premium Tracker

  Resale premium multiple

  It compares auction market prices with retail prices to calculate the secondary-market price multiple for Hermès core handbags, in order to observe whether brand scarcity, demand intensity, and investor concerns about brand momentum are easing.

• Valuation methodologyRelative P/E valuation

  Target relative P/E multiple

  Bernstein uses a target P/E multiple of 3.2x relative to MSCI Europe for Hermès and applies it to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast, arriving at a target price of EUR2,150.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hermes International / RMS.FP

  Research target

  Strengths

  Deep brand equity, scarcity in core Birkin and Kelly lines, and stronger ability than most soft luxury peers to manage consumption divergence; the 2Q26 resale market multiple shows signs of stabilization.

  Weaknesses

  Recent brand momentum is soft, especially with weak demand from entry-level Chinese consumers; near-term valuation recovery depends on a clearer demand rebound.

  Comparison

  The report believes Hermès is more resilient than soft luxury peers such as LVMH; resale price multiples are an important indicator for observing brand scarcity and consumer demand.

  Risks

  If innovation proves insufficient, if the quiet luxury aesthetic falls out of favor, if reliance on exotic leather is challenged by animal welfare issues, or if commercial policies face legal challenges, growth and valuation could be undermined.

Key data

• Core Birkin/Kelly resale premium1.45x2Q26 level, above 1.25x in 1Q26 and the 4Q25 trough of 1.22x.
• Expanded tracker resale premium1.66x2Q26 level, broadly stable versus 1.63x in 1Q26; the expanded scope includes Kelly Pochette and Mini Kelly II.
• Auction coverage in this update701 lots, 34 included in the tracking basketFrom Sotheby’s New York and Christie’s Paris, both ending on June 24, 2026.
• Cumulative number of tracked handbags in 2Q2674Below 90 at the end of 2Q25.
• Target priceEUR2,150Based on a 3.2x relative P/E multiple and a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast.
• Closing priceEUR1,629Closing price on June 24, 2026.

Impact & implications

Stabilization or improvement in resale multiples may help alleviate some market concerns about Hermès’ brand momentum, scarcity, and Chinese consumer demand. If subsequent quarters continue to show stable or rising seasonal highs and lows, this could support investor confidence in a valuation recovery for Hermès; conversely, if multiples decline again in 3Q26 due to a higher share of Hong Kong auctions, the market may still demand clearer signals of a global demand recovery.

Risks

• Improvement in resale prices in a single quarter is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
• 3Q26 auction locations may skew toward Hong Kong, where resale multiples are lower, potentially causing tracked multiples to decline.
• Demand from entry-level Chinese luxury consumers remains weak, and brand momentum is still in a soft patch.
• If Hermès fails to sustain innovation, it may face the risk of being seen as 'classic but lacking novelty.'
• Reliance on exotic leather could be affected by animal welfare concerns.
• If commercial policies face successful legal challenges, Hermes may be forced to raise handbag prices, which could also affect growth in other categories.

What to watch

• The impact of 3Q26 auction location mix and the share of Hong Kong auctions on resale multiples.
• Whether the seasonal highs and lows of the core Birkin/Kelly tracker continue to stabilize.
• Whether premiums for Mini Kelly II and Kelly Pochette in the expanded tracker remain resilient.
• Whether revenue growth in 2Q26 and 2H26 shows the expected modest sequential acceleration.
• Whether high-end tourist spending, retail space growth, and accelerating leather goods volumes can support fundamentals.
• Whether Chinese consumer demand shows clearer signs of recovery.