In week 14, China new energy vehicle orders rose 30% year-over-year, with XPeng leading week-over-week growth

Overview

This report is a Goldman Sachs China new energy vehicle weekly chart pack focused on week 14 (March 30 to April 5, 2026), covering key new energy vehicle brand orders, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers monthly wholesale and retail data, recent model and industry events, dealer terminal discounts, and upstream battery prices. The core conclusion is: weekly orders remain up year-over-year, but week-over-week performance slipped; XPeng posted the strongest short-term performance due to the MONA M03 facelift launch, dealer discount margins narrowed, and battery input costs eased slightly.

Core views

The report views demand for new energy vehicles in China as still resilient on a year-over-year basis, while weekly month-over-month fluctuation is significant. At the brand level, XPeng, Li Auto and NIO led week-over-week growth, indicating that new model launches and facelifts remain the primary short-term catalysts for order acceleration. On pricing, new energy vehicle dealer discounts narrowed versus the prior week, while fossil fuel vehicle discounts were broadly stable, suggesting price competition has not clearly deteriorated further. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continue to edge lower, while battery cell prices are stable, providing moderate relief on the battery cost side.

Analysis framework

The report combines weekly high-frequency order tracking, CAAM monthly wholesale and retail data, dealer discount monitoring, and upstream battery price tracking, comparing week-over-week, year-over-year, and year-to-date performance while listing upcoming model launches, auto shows, and data releases as catalysts in coming weeks.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingWeekly New Energy Vehicle order tracking

  Use weekly orders of key new energy vehicle manufacturers to measure short-term demand changes.

  The report compares week-over-week and year-over-year changes in orders for key manufacturers in week 14 of 2026 and explains inter-brand differences using specific model launches.

• Price monitoringDealer discount tracking

  Use the ratio of terminal dealer discount to the manufacturer suggested retail price to gauge discount intensity.

  The report separately tracks average dealer discounts for new energy vehicles and fossil fuel vehicles and compares them with the prior week and year-ago levels.

• Cost monitoringUpstream battery price tracking

  Track battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery cell price changes to assess marginal pressure on battery costs.

  The report notes that battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell 1.9% week-over-week, while battery cell prices were stable week-over-week.

• Research-house methodologyGS Factor Profile

  A framework Goldman Sachs uses to compare stock growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite attributes.

  This framework appears in the disclosure section to describe Goldman Sachs' general equity research comparison approach, and is not the main basis for the weekly new energy vehicle order conclusions.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XPeng

  A new energy vehicle brand benefiting from new model/facelift launches

  Strengths

  Week-14 orders rose 166% week-over-week, with the MONA M03 facelift launch creating a clear order catalyst.

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date orders are still down 20% year-over-year, indicating that cumulative mid-term performance still needs further recovery.

  Comparison

  It led week-on-week performance in week 14 versus Li Auto and NIO.

  Risks

  Sustainability of model enthusiasm, delivery execution, and intensifying retail pricing competition remain key risks.

• Li Auto

  Key new energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Week-14 week-over-week order growth was 26%, stronger than most brands.

  Weaknesses

  The report did not provide finer-grained model-level driving factors.

  Comparison

  Week-over-week growth was below XPeng but above NIO.

  Risks

  Order volatility, product-cycle effects, and escalating competition.

• NIO

  Key new energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Week-14 week-over-week order growth was 16%, and year-to-date orders are up 37%, making it relatively more defensive.

  Weaknesses

  Week-over-week order growth was below XPeng and Li Auto.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date performance was better than Tesla and XPeng.

  Risks

  Order conversion after the ES9 technology event, new model cadence, and durability of end-demand.

• Tesla

  Key new energy vehicle brand

  Strengths

  Year-to-date order scale remains high in the chart sample.

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date orders are down 19% year-over-year.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date year-over-year performance is weaker than NIO but slightly better than XPeng.

  Risks

  Domestic competition, pricing strategy, and model-cycle timing.

• BYD

  NEV leader and dealer discount benchmark

  Strengths

  BYD had the highest order scale in the chart sample year-to-date in 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Its average dealer discount is higher year-over-year than last year, indicating price-competition pressure remains.

  Comparison

  BYD's average discount was 4.32% on April 5, below the NEV industry average of 7.52%.

  Risks

  Price competition, slowing scale growth, and margin pressure.

• Power battery supply chain

  Upstream cost tail of new energy vehicles

  Strengths

  Falling battery-grade lithium carbonate prices week-over-week support relief in vehicle and battery cost pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Battery cell prices were stable week-over-week, limiting the extent of cost pass-through improvement.

  Comparison

  Material prices reflect margin easing earlier than battery cell prices.

  Risks

  Lithium price volatility, downstream demand swings, and inventory cycle changes.

Key data

• Total orders of key new energy vehicle brands in week 14MoM -7%, YoY +30%Coverage period is March 30 to April 5, 2026.
• Week-over-week order performance of XPeng/Li Auto/NIO+166% / +26% / +16%XPeng's performance was mainly driven by the MONA M03 facelift launch.
• Passenger vehicle retail sales1.657 million vehicles, YoY -15%, MoM +60%CAAM basis, as of March 1-31, 2026.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale sales2.320 million vehicles, YoY -4%, MoM +53%CAAM basis, as of March 1-31, 2026.
• New energy vehicle retail sales0.784 million vehicles, YoY -21%, MoM +69%CAAM basis, as of March 1-31, 2026.
• New energy vehicle wholesale sales1.126 million vehicles, YoY flat, MoM +56%CAAM basis, as of March 1-31, 2026.
• New energy vehicle penetration47.3% retail, 48.6% wholesaleLevel for March 1-31, above February's 44.9%/47.6%.
• Average dealer discount for new energy vehicles7.52%As of April 5, 2026; prior week was 7.89%, and year-ago was 6.84%.
• Average dealer discount for BYD4.32%As of April 5, 2026; prior week was 5.38%, and year-ago was 2.44%.
• Average dealer discount for fossil fuel vehicles19.55%As of April 5, 2026; prior week was 19.54%, and year-ago was 21.97%.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceCNY 156,500 per ton, MoM -1.9%Battery cell prices were stable week-over-week.

Impact & implications

For the NEV supply chain, the combination of order year-over-year growth and recovering penetration supports a resilient demand thesis, while the week-over-week pullback suggests short-term orders remain sensitive to model cycles and promotional rhythm. Brands with new-model-driven catalysts like XPeng are showing stronger near-term outperformance; narrower dealer discounts help ease concerns over an escalation in price wars; declining lithium carbonate prices are supportive of battery and automaker cost pressure.

Risks

• Weekly order data is highly volatile and may be affected by holidays, promotions, new model launches, and channel cycles.
• If price competition in new energy vehicles reignites, it could compress margins for automakers and dealers.
• Order gains tied to model launches may be short-term pulses and need follow-through in deliveries and sustained orders.
• If upstream battery material prices rebound, cost-side improvement could be reduced.
• As an industry weekly report, this does not provide company-level target prices or full earnings forecasts and cannot replace in-depth stock-specific fundamental research.

What to watch

• April 9: NIO ES9 technology event.
• April 10-11: CAAM releases March passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle industry and segment-level wholesale and retail data.
• April 16: Zeekr LS8, Leapmotor D19 and Volkswagen ID.UNYX 08 launches.
• April to May: XPeng GX launch.
• April 24 to May 3: Beijing Auto Show 2026.
• May 1: New energy vehicle manufacturer monthly sales release.
• May 10-11: CAAM releases passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle industry and segment-level wholesale and retail data.