China’s July trade maintained relatively rapid year-over-year growth, but sequential momentum cooled and the surplus narrowed

Overview

The report analyzes China’s July 2026 trade data. On a year-over-year basis, exports grew 23.9% and imports grew 27.5%, still at relatively high levels, but both slowed from June; on a month-over-month basis, exports were broadly flat and imports declined. Goldman Sachs believes unfavorable base effects and severe weather were part of the reasons for the slowdown in overall trade growth. The trade surplus fell to US$112.5bn, but remained above the firm’s and market’s prior expectations.

Core views

Trade data showed a combination of “strong year-over-year growth and cooling sequential momentum.” Regional export performance was mixed, with relatively stronger exports to ASEAN, Japan, and the European Union; at the product level, semiconductors, automatic data processing equipment, metals, and textiles and apparel performed better, while autos and housing-related products weakened month over month. On the import side, most products declined month over month, with semiconductors and energy products as relative exceptions; growth in import value was significantly faster than volume growth, indicating that price factors remained an important driver of year-over-year growth.

Analysis framework

The report compares customs trade data with Goldman Sachs forecasts and Bloomberg consensus expectations, and assesses trade momentum and price effects by combining year-over-year growth, seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth, trading partner distribution, product categories, and changes in value and volume.

Methodology notes

• Time-series analysisYear-over-year and seasonally adjusted month-over-month analysis

  Observe both year-over-year trends and short-term month-over-month momentum

  Year-over-year data measure changes versus the same period last year, while Goldman Sachs’ seasonally adjusted non-annualized month-over-month data are used to identify actual momentum in the most recent month and reduce the impact of seasonal factors.

• Structural decompositionTrading partner and product decomposition

  Break down trade changes by destination, source, and commodity category

  By comparing performance across trading partners such as the United States, European Union, ASEAN, and Japan, as well as semiconductors, autos, metals, and energy products, the report identifies structural differences behind the overall trade data.

• Price-volume analysisComparison of import value and volume

  Distinguish the contributions of prices and physical volumes to nominal trade growth

  The year-over-year growth rates of import value for semiconductors and coal were significantly higher than growth in import volumes, indicating that price increases were an important source of nominal import growth.

• Expectation gap analysisComparison of actual values with forecasts

  Measure deviations of the data from institutional forecasts and market consensus expectations

  Exports were slightly above consensus expectations, imports were below Goldman Sachs’ forecast and Bloomberg consensus expectations, while the trade surplus was above both expectations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China export supply chain

  Exports maintained relatively rapid year-over-year growth, but overall month-over-month momentum weakened.

  Strengths

  Exports to ASEAN, Japan, and the European Union rose month over month, showing a degree of diversification in export markets.

  Weaknesses

  Exports to most economies declined month over month, and base effects may continue to depress subsequent year-over-year readings.

  Comparison

  July export year-over-year growth fell to 23.9% from 27.0% in June, while seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth fell to 0.0% from 5.5%.

  Risks

  Weaker global demand, weather disruptions, trade frictions, and a high base may further weigh on exports.

• Semiconductor and technology product supply chain

  Semiconductors and automatic data processing equipment were relative bright spots in July’s trade structure.

  Strengths

  Semiconductor export value rose 116.6% year over year, and export volume turned to growth year over year; import volume growth also increased.

  Weaknesses

  Export value growth slowed from June, and high growth in import value was largely driven by price factors.

  Comparison

  Semiconductor export volume year-over-year growth improved to +1.7% in July from -0.5% in June, while import volume growth rose to +8.5% from +6.6%.

  Risks

  Chip price volatility, external technology restrictions, and changes in global electronics demand could lead to a rapid pullback in nominal growth.

• Auto export supply chain

  Auto exports maintained a high year-over-year growth rate, but short-term month-over-month performance weakened.

  Strengths

  Auto export value still grew 60.4% year over year in July.

  Weaknesses

  Seasonally adjusted month-over-month declined 6.3%, and year-over-year growth was also below June’s 70.0%.

  Comparison

  Compared with technology and some metal products, autos were one of the main categories with weaker export performance month over month in July.

  Risks

  Slower overseas demand, tariffs and trade barriers, price competition, and a high base may weaken growth sustainability.

• Energy and commodities

  Import value of energy products such as coal grew rapidly, but price effects were stronger than volume effects.

  Strengths

  Coal import value year-over-year growth rose to 83.8% from 60.7% in June.

  Weaknesses

  Coal import volume growth fell to 20.0% from 29.5%, while import volumes of crude oil and refined oil products still declined 24.3% and 39.6%, respectively.

  Comparison

  Nominal import performance of energy products was significantly stronger than physical import volumes, and cannot be simply interpreted as a synchronous sharp improvement in demand.

  Risks

  A pullback in international commodity prices could quickly depress nominal import growth, while declining energy import volumes may also reflect weak actual demand.

• RMB and China macro assets

  The large trade surplus still supports the external balance, but the surplus narrowed month over month and import momentum was weak.

  Strengths

  The US$112.5bn trade surplus was above Goldman Sachs and market consensus expectations.

  Weaknesses

  The surplus was below June’s US$125.6bn, and seasonally adjusted imports fell 2.4% month over month.

  Comparison

  RMB-denominated trade year-over-year growth rose from June, while USD-denominated year-over-year growth slowed, requiring observation alongside exchange rate and invoicing differences.

  Risks

  Trade frictions, slower exports, commodity prices, and exchange rate changes may affect the external balance and RMB performance.

Key data

• USD-denominated exports year over yearJuly 2026 +23.9%June was +27.0%; Goldman Sachs forecast was +23.9%, and Bloomberg consensus expectation was +23.0%.
• USD-denominated exports seasonally adjusted month over month0.0%Non-annualized basis; June was +5.5%.
• USD-denominated imports year over yearJuly 2026 +27.5%June was +36.0%; Goldman Sachs forecast was +30.7%, and Bloomberg consensus expectation was +29.7%.
• USD-denominated imports seasonally adjusted month over month-2.4%Non-annualized basis; June was +6.9%.
• Trade surplusUS$112.5bnNot seasonally adjusted; June was US$125.6bn, Goldman Sachs forecast was US$105.4bn, and Bloomberg consensus expectation was US$107.1bn.
• RMB-denominated exports year over year+20.8%June was +13.7%.
• RMB-denominated imports year over year+29.4%June was +21.5%.
• Exports to the United States year over year+17.0%June was +13.9%; seasonally adjusted month over month declined 0.7%.
• Exports to the European Union year over year+16.0%June was +18.5%; seasonally adjusted month over month increased 0.3%.
• Exports to ASEAN year over year+38.4%June was +34.5%, maintaining relatively strong growth.
• Semiconductor export value year over year+116.6%June was +121.9%; export volume increased 1.7% year over year.
• Auto export value year over year+60.4%June was +70.0%; seasonally adjusted month over month declined 6.3%.
• Semiconductor import value year over year+71.1%Import volume increased only 8.5%, indicating a relatively large price contribution.
• Coal import value year over year+83.8%Import volume increased 20.0%, with value growth likewise mainly supported by prices.

Impact & implications

The data indicate that China’s foreign trade growth remained resilient year over year, but short-term month-over-month momentum has cooled noticeably. The export structure continued to tilt toward technology products such as semiconductors and automatic data processing equipment, while exports to markets such as ASEAN also remained strong; although auto exports posted high year-over-year growth, the month-over-month pullback warrants attention. High nominal growth on the import side does not fully represent a synchronous strengthening of domestic demand or physical demand, because price effects accounted for a large share in categories such as semiconductors and coal. The narrowing surplus may marginally reduce trade’s contribution to current-period growth, but its absolute size remains high.

Risks

• Unfavorable base effects may cause subsequent year-over-year growth to continue slowing.
• Severe weather may cause short-term disruptions to production, transportation, and customs declaration.
• The current release covers only major trading partners and products, so regional and commodity conclusions are still constrained by data completeness.
• Import value growth was driven by significant price effects, which may overstate the strength of physical demand.
• A decline in global demand or escalation of trade frictions may weaken export resilience.
• Weak volume or month-over-month performance in categories such as autos, crude oil, and refined oil products may reflect pressure on demand in some industries.

What to watch

• Detailed trade data by country and product to be released on August 20, 2026.
• Whether seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth in exports and imports can return to positive territory in August.
• Whether export trends and regional divergence for ASEAN, the European Union, Japan, and the United States continue.
• Whether high growth in semiconductor export value can translate into sustained volume growth.
• Whether the month-over-month decline in auto exports is temporary volatility.
• Changes in price and volume contributions to imports of semiconductors, coal, and other energy products.
• The marginal impact of the narrowing trade surplus on economic growth, the external balance, and the RMB.