Asia’s export upcycle is broadening from technology to non-tech, but recovery quality is uneven

Overview

The report discusses whether Asia ex-Japan’s export cycle has spread beyond semiconductors and AI servers into a broader set of non-tech categories. It finds that non-tech exports have moved into a double-digit growth band since early 2026, suggesting the export upcycle is no longer confined to the technology chain. However, drivers differ significantly across products and countries: capital goods show stronger fundamental support, while some traditional categories remain driven by price effects, and auto recovery is mostly concentrated in China.

Core views

The core view is that non-tech export recovery is already underway but uneven in sustainability. Nomura is most constructive on capital goods exports, especially electrical machinery and precision instruments, because the AI-related capex cycle is creating spillover demand for data centers, electrical equipment, industrial machinery, and automation gear. In contrast, improvements in chemicals and several commodity-related categories depend more on price increases from war and geopolitics; if those effects fade, export growth could slow. Auto exports are improving, but at a regional level they are pressured by competition from Chinese automakers, and auto exports outside China remain relatively weak across other Asian economies.

Analysis framework

The report splits non-tech export growth along country and product dimensions and combines Nomura’s Asia export leading index, inventory-to-shipment ratios, industrial production, and product price factors to assess whether the recovery is sustainable. The analysis emphasizes separating genuine demand improvement, AI-investment spillover, price effects, and regional competitive dynamics, rather than treating all non-tech export rebounds as homogeneous demand recovery.

Methodology notes

• Macro leading indicatorNomura Export Leading Index (NELI)

  Asia Export Leading Index

  The report uses NELI to assess whether Asia’s export cycle can continue into Q3 2026 and notes that the index improvement has spread from technology-linked indicators to manufacturing sentiment and China demand.

• Inventory cycle analysisinventory-to-shipment ratio

  Inventory-to-shipment ratio

  The report uses inventory-to-shipment ratios to assess whether export improvement can translate into a production recovery. A decline in the ratio for electrical equipment indicates inventory drawdown and stronger shipments, which could support production recovery if demand remains solid.

• Structural decompositioncountry and product decomposition

  Country and product decomposition

  The report examines economies such as Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and China separately, as well as categories like capital goods, chemicals, fuel, plastics and rubber, precious metals, and autos, to identify differences in recovery sources and persistence.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Asia capital goods and machinery export chain

  benefits from AI-related capex spillover

  Strengths

  Demand for electrical machinery, precision instruments, and industrial machinery is supported by AI infrastructure, data centers, and automation investment, giving the recovery greater persistence.

  Weaknesses

  If AI capex slows or external demand weakens, order continuity could be challenged.

  Comparison

  Compared with chemicals and commodity-related categories, capital goods recovery is more demand-driven.

  Risks

  A downturn in global manufacturing sentiment, cooling of AI investment cycles, and weaker-than-expected inventory digestion.

• Chemical, fuel, plastics and rubber, and precious metals exports

  temporarily boosted by price effects

  Strengths

  Short-term export values are lifted by higher energy, petrochemical, and precious metals prices.

  Weaknesses

  Underlying demand remains weak, and the improvement is driven mainly by prices rather than volume expansion.

  Comparison

  Persistence is weaker than in capital goods exports driven by AI-investment spillovers.

  Risks

  Fade-out of Iran-U.S. war-related price effects, declining energy and commodity prices, insufficient end-user demand.

• China EV and auto exports

  energy-security and Chinese automaker competitiveness support export growth

  Strengths

  Chinese automakers continue to increase global share through EV competitiveness, aggressive pricing, and overseas expansion.

  Weaknesses

  Auto export recovery is highly concentrated in China, while auto exports in other Asian economies remain weak.

  Comparison

  China’s auto exports are stronger than those of other Asian economies, creating competitive pressure.

  Risks

  Overseas trade barriers, intensifying price competition, weakening internal-combustion engine exports, and regional demand not recovering in sync.

Key data

• Non-tech export growthYoY 10.9% in May 2026A marked improvement from -2.2% in October 2025, entering the double-digit growth band.
• China auto export growthYoY 39.3% in May 2026Auto exports including chassis remain at elevated levels.
• China hybrid vehicle export growthYoY 38.6% in June 2026The report says hybrid and EV exports are strong, while traditional internal-combustion engine exports are weaker.
• China EV export growthYoY 18.1% in June 2026Energy-security demand and overseas expansion by Chinese automakers support EV exports.
• Electrical equipment inventory-to-shipment ratio1.05 in April 2026Below the 2025 average of 1.14, reflecting stronger shipments and declining inventories.
• Base metals inventory-to-shipment ratio1.11Below the prior 1.19, indicating gradual signs of industrial activity recovery.

Impact & implications

For investment and macro analysis, the breadth of Asia’s export recovery is improving, but it should not be taken as a blanket demand recovery. More attention should be paid to the spillover channel from AI capex into capital goods and industrial equipment, as this may support sustained orders in related economies and manufacturing segments. By contrast, export improvements tied to rising energy, petrochemical, and precious metals prices may slow as those geopolitical price effects fade; the auto channel requires separating China’s export advantage from the structural pressure faced by other Asian economies.

Risks

• Energy, petrochemical, and precious metals price effects driven by geopolitical events unwind, leading to a slowdown in export value growth in those segments.
• Inventory declines in sectors like chemicals mainly reflect production cuts rather than a broad shipment-led recovery, indicating underlying demand remains weak.
• Auto export recovery is concentrated in China, while other Asian economies face pressure from Chinese automaker competition and weak external demand.
• If the AI-related capex cycle cools, spillover demand for electrical machinery, precision instruments, and industrial machinery could weaken.
• Although the export leading indicator shows near-term improvement, if global manufacturing demand and China demand falter, the recovery may be unstable.

What to watch

• Whether the Nomura Export Leading Index continues to support ongoing upside in Asian exports into Q3 2026.
• Whether the decline in inventory-to-shipment ratios for electrical equipment and base metals translates into a recovery in industrial production.
• Whether AI infrastructure, data centers, electrification, and industrial automation investment continue to drive capital goods orders.
• Whether energy, petrochemical, and precious metals prices fall back after geopolitical events.
• Whether China EV, hybrid vehicle, and total auto exports can remain strong, and whether auto exports in other Asian economies improve.