The short-term risk of tokenization to Computershare appears manageable, but long-term competitive and revenue impacts still need to be monitored

Overview

This report focuses on the potential impact of tokenized securities on Computershare's registry and transfer agency business. Goldman Sachs believes that although tokenization may reshape registry systems, margin income, and the competitive landscape over the long term, CPU has reduced its near-term capability gap through its partnership with Securitize and retains the option to build or acquire tokenization capabilities in the future. Bullish's tokenization growth plan following its acquisition of Equiniti indicates that market momentum is strengthening and also provides a positive reference for CPU's revenue outlook in an uncertain environment.

Core views

The core views are as follows: first, CPU's partnership with Securitize allows it to provide tokenization services to issuers without immediately making a large-scale in-house investment; second, CPU still controls issuer relationships and contracts, which is an important advantage against new entrants; third, tokenization can bring issuers and shareholders benefits including 24/7 trading, instant settlement, liquidity, transparency, and improved corporate action efficiency, supporting future repricing; fourth, traditional systems and blockchain-based systems may coexist for a long time, so there is no need to assume an immediate erosion of registry revenue in the near term; fifth, long-term risks still come from low technological barriers to entry, competitors and in-house client capabilities, as well as the possibility of margin income declining over time.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates the impact of the tokenization theme on CPU's revenue, margins, competitive position, and valuation by analyzing the CPU/Securitize partnership, the Securitize value chain, DTCC tokenization infrastructure, Bullish/Equiniti's 2026-2029 outlook, issuer demand drivers, pricing mechanisms, and cost synergies. The valuation section uses DCF, combined with target price methodology, investment thesis, and downside risks.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodDCF

  Pure DCF target price

  Goldman Sachs's 12-month target price of A$38 is based on a pure DCF valuation, with key assumptions including a 9.5% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

• Thematic mappingTokenization value chain analysis

  Coexistence of registry systems and tokenization platforms

  The report compares CPU's registry relationships, Securitize's tokenization capabilities, DTCC's infrastructure, and Bullish/Equiniti's business plan to assess the substitution, incremental revenue, and repricing potential of tokenization for traditional transfer agency revenue.

• Fundamental frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs discloses that its factor framework compares covered stocks based on growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics to provide investment context.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Probability score for being a potential acquisition target

  Goldman Sachs states that its globally covered stocks can be scored from 1 to 3 based on M&A probability; the investment thesis in this report also notes the possibility of upside from accretive acquisitions by CPU.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Computershare (CPU.AX)

  Core covered company and investment target

  Strengths

  It has strong issuer relationships, existing registry contracts, global technology and administrative service capabilities, and can rapidly fill its tokenization capability gap through Securitize.

  Weaknesses

  Traditional registry and margin income may be affected by tokenization, declining cash interest rates, and the end of cost programs.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure tokenization platforms, CPU is stronger in issuer relationships and its installed registry base; compared with new entrants, its technology capabilities need to be supplemented through partnerships, internal build-out, or M&A.

  Risks

  Low barriers to entry, client in-house build-out, declining margin income, rising expenses, and lower-than-expected tokenization adoption.

• Securitize

  CPU's 18-month non-exclusive tokenization partner

  Strengths

  It has SEC-registered transfer agent status and capabilities in token minting and burning, smart contracts, distribution, asset services, and DeFi connectivity.

  Weaknesses

  The financial terms of the partnership were not disclosed, and barriers to building tokenization platforms are low.

  Comparison

  Securitize is a third-party tokenization service provider that can help CPU enter the market quickly, but it does not exclusively control CPU or the issuer ecosystem.

  Risks

  An increase in competitors, in-house institutional capabilities, revenue-sharing arrangements, and uncertainty over long-term control.

• Bullish/Equiniti

  Peer mapping and industry validation case for the tokenization theme

  Strengths

  Through Equiniti, Bullish gains relationships with approximately 3,000 global corporate issuers and plans to offer end-to-end tokenization services.

  Weaknesses

  It still needs to drive issuer adoption, and the coexistence of traditional systems and blockchain systems will increase the complexity of the transition.

  Comparison

  Bullish/Equiniti's outlook shows that tokenization services can become an incremental revenue source for transfer agency businesses, creating a positive read-through for CPU.

  Risks

  Issuer adoption below expectations, complex regulatory/KYC/AML requirements, and failure of revenue growth assumptions.

• DTCC tokenization infrastructure

  Industry signal at the market infrastructure level

  Strengths

  It plans to support conversion between traditional assets and digital tokenized forms, covering highly liquid assets, multiple token standards, compliance, and multi-chain interoperability.

  Weaknesses

  The initial scope may focus on highly liquid assets, and the pace of implementation and ecosystem acceptance remain to be seen.

  Comparison

  DTCC's positioning indicates that mainstream market infrastructure is also advancing tokenization, increasing the credibility of the theme.

  Risks

  Execution risks exist around regulation, technical interoperability, participant onboarding, and the connection between on-chain and off-chain liquidity.

• Stablecoins and on-chain liquidity

  Foundational liquidity supporting tokenized trading and DeFi scenarios

  Strengths

  Growth in stablecoin supply and on-chain liquidity helps support trading, lending, and collateral management for tokenized securities.

  Weaknesses

  The stablecoin market and DeFi activity are still affected by regulation, liquidity cycles, and risk appetite.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional settlement liquidity, on-chain liquidity can support 24/7 trading and instant settlement, but its institutionalization is still developing.

  Risks

  Tighter regulation, liquidity volatility, on-chain security incidents, and compliant wallet restrictions.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-25The report was published on 25 June 2026 | 12:30PM AEST.
• CPU/Securitize partnership term18-month non-exclusive partnershipThe partnership helps CPU close its tokenization capability gap and deliver Securitize's capabilities to issuers through CPU.
• Potential in-house build costUp to approximately US$50mThe report states, based on channel checks, that the potential cost for CPU to build its own tokenization platform could be up to approximately US$50m.
• Bullish/Equiniti 2027-2029 revenue growth target6%-8% p.a.Bullish expects total revenue growth for the combined business and forecasts an exit growth rate of 8% in 2029.
• Tokenization and blockchain services growthApproximately 20%The report states that this is the main driver of Bullish group revenue growth.
• Cost synergy targetUS$25m-50m annualized net cost savingsBullish/Equiniti expects to achieve net cost savings of this scale from the combined cost base by 2029.
• EBITDA less capex margin target2029E approximately 50%+, current approximately 39%Margin expansion is expected to come from revenue growth, cost optimization, lower service costs, and AI agents writing token contracts, among other factors.
• Target priceA$3812-month target price, based on DCF valuation.
• Disclosed priceA$37.17The Computershare price listed in the company-specific disclosures.

Impact & implications

For CPU, tokenization is both a potential disruption and a new service that can be commercialized. In the short term, the partnership model reduces capability build-out risk while preserving customer relationships and contract control; in the medium term, if issuers are willing to pay for higher liquidity, instant settlement, and shareholder engagement, CPU has an opportunity to offset declining margin income through repricing and incremental services; in the long term, if barriers to entry remain low, institutions accelerate internal build-out, or competitors enter at lower cost, CPU's moat and margins may still come under pressure.

Risks

• Cash interest rates are cut more than expected, pressuring CPU's margin income.
• Expense growth exceeds expectations after CPU's cost optimization program ends.
• Ongoing offline or non-recurring costs weigh on statutory earnings relative to management earnings.
• Barriers to building tokenization platforms are low, and LLM/AI lowers development thresholds, increasing competitors and in-house client capabilities.
• Issuer adoption of tokenization is below expectations, or new pricing models fail to offset lost margin income.
• Regulatory, KYC/AML, corporate action processing, and on-chain compliance requirements may increase execution complexity.
• The long-term parallel operation of traditional systems and tokenized systems may create cost, operational, and technology integration pressure.

What to watch

• The commercial terms of the CPU-Securitize partnership, customer adoption, and any subsequent renewal or deepening arrangements.
• Whether CPU chooses to build its own tokenization platform, acquire relevant capabilities, or continue with the partnership model.
• Whether Bullish/Equiniti achieves its 2027-2029 expectations of 6%-8% revenue growth and 20% growth in tokenization services.
• Issuers' willingness to pay for 24/7 trading, instant settlement, shareholder engagement, and corporate action efficiency.
• The implementation progress of stablecoin supply, DeFi liquidity, and market infrastructure such as DTCC.
• The actual resilience of CPU's margin income during declining cash interest rates and the tokenization migration process.
• Changes in CPU's cost optimization programs, expense growth, and EBITDA margin.