UBS maintains Buy on SoftBank Group and raises target price to ¥7,570

Overview

This is a UBS company research report on SoftBank Group (9984.T). The report focuses on the impact of OpenAI-related concerns on investor sentiment, while also highlighting positive developments at ARM driven by demand from AI inference and cloud migration. UBS maintains its Buy rating and raises the target price due to ARM’s share price increase and higher discounted NAV.

Core views

UBS believes that OpenAI faces pressure from missing user growth targets, questions over the sustainability of data center capital expenditure, IPO uncertainty, and funding burn, but that these issues are already widely recognized by investors. In contrast, ARM is benefiting from CPU demand driven by AI inference workloads, as well as general server demand from U.S. enterprise cloud migration and AI adaptation, making near-term news flow more likely to skew positive.

Analysis framework

The report uses an NAV valuation framework, incorporating the market value of holdings and foreign-exchange factors into the model, and then applying a discount to NAV to derive SoftBank Group’s market capitalization and target price. The target price increase mainly reflects ARM’s current share price of $215 and the rise in discounted NAV from ¥38.1tn to ¥43.5tn.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsNAV Valuation Model

  Estimate the value of a holding company based on the value of its investment holdings

  UBS calculates NAV based on its proprietary model and applies a discount to NAV to reflect factors such as listed equity and foreign-exchange market values.

• Short-term Factor AssessmentQuantitative Research Review

  Analysts’ quantitative assessment of the probability of short-term factors occurring

  This assessment reflects a short-term factor perspective, with a time frame different from the 12-month investment horizon associated with the stock rating.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SoftBank Group

  Research target

  Strengths

  It holds high-growth assets such as ARM, and still offers substantial forecast upside after the target price increase.

  Weaknesses

  The holding company valuation depends on the prices of its investment holdings and the NAV discount, making financial risk sensitive to market volatility.

  Comparison

  UBS lists it as one of its top picks in the industrial electronics sector.

  Risks

  Regulatory changes, new entrants, intensifying MVNO competition, and fund business exposure to interest rates and the economic environment.

• ARM

  Core positive driver

  Strengths

  AI inference workloads and general server demand from cloud services are driving upside in CPU demand.

  Weaknesses

  Its valuation is sensitive to market sentiment and growth expectations.

  Comparison

  Unlike the negative news around OpenAI, investor sentiment toward ARM is improving.

  Risks

  If demand for AI inference or cloud migration falls short of expectations, ARM’s support for NAV may weaken.

• OpenAI

  Sentiment and portfolio risk factor

  Strengths

  Codex 5.5 performs close to Anthropic Opus 4.7, and stronger B2B sales could improve its position.

  Weaknesses

  Concerns are prominent around missed user targets, pressure from data center investment, IPO uncertainty, and funding burn.

  Comparison

  Google Gemini has surpassed OpenAI in B2C, while Anthropic has surpassed OpenAI in B2B.

  Risks

  If financing conditions, compute investment, or commercialization progress deteriorate, it could weigh on sentiment related to SoftBank Group.

• Alibaba

  Risk related to holding value

  Strengths

  It remains one of the important holdings affecting the value of the holding company’s assets.

  Weaknesses

  The value of the company’s holding is highly dependent on Alibaba’s share price.

  Comparison

  Compared with ARM’s positive contribution, Alibaba is more often identified in the report as a source of financial risk.

  Risks

  A sharp share price decline could create financial risk.

Key data

• 12-month ratingBuyThe stock rating disclosed in the report.
• Target price¥7,570Raised from the previous ¥6,600.
• Current price¥5,268Price as of April 28, 2026.
• Forecast price appreciation43.7%The forecast price appreciation disclosed in the report.
• Forecast excess return36.4%The forecast excess return disclosed in the report.
• Market capitalization¥30,021bn / US$189bnTrading data from the report.
• 52-week range¥6,829-¥1,791Shown in the original text as 52-wk range.
• Discounted NAV¥43.5trnPreviously ¥38.1trn.
• ARM share price assumption$215A key input used for the target price increase.

Impact & implications

For SoftBank Group, negative information related to OpenAI may limit sentiment recovery, but if investors have already fully priced it in, the marginal impact may weaken. Improving demand and valuation for ARM are more direct upside drivers, especially as AI inference and cloud migration remain in early stages, and related positive news flow may continue to support the investment thesis.

Risks

• Changes in the regulatory environment.
• New entrants and intensifying MVNO competition.
• Intensifying competition from T-Mobile or lower-than-expected synergies.
• Fund business exposure to changes in interest-rate trends and the macroeconomic environment.
• A sharp decline in Alibaba’s share price could trigger financial risk.
• OpenAI’s cash burn, IPO uncertainty, and pressure from compute investment could affect investor sentiment.

What to watch

• Whether OpenAI can improve B2B sales and growth in enterprise customers.
• Changes in ARM’s share price and their impact on SoftBank Group’s NAV.
• The sustainability of CPU demand from AI inference workloads.
• Server demand driven by U.S. enterprise cloud migration and AI adaptation.
• Changes in SoftBank Group’s NAV discount.
• The competitive landscape with T-Mobile and the realization of synergies.