The decline in primary home prices across 70 Chinese cities continued to narrow in June, while tier-1 cities rose month-on-month

Overview

This report tracks housing price data for 70 cities from the National Bureau of Statistics, along with high-frequency transaction and inventory indicators. The core conclusion is that the decline in China’s primary home prices continued to narrow in June, tier-1 cities achieved month-on-month gains, and declines in tier-2 and tier-3 cities also moderated; however, the secondary housing market remains weak, with price declines over the past year clearly larger than those for primary homes.

Core views

Goldman Sachs notes that the weighted average price of primary homes across 70 cities fell at a seasonally adjusted annualized month-on-month rate of 1.0% in June, improving from a 1.8% decline in May; the year-on-year decline narrowed from 3.5% in May to 3.3% in June. Housing prices in tier-1 cities rose at an annualized month-on-month rate of 2.0%, with Shanghai up 2.2% in June, the strongest among tier-1 cities. Prices in tier-2 and tier-3 cities still declined, but the pace narrowed to 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, secondary home prices fell at an annualized month-on-month rate of 1.5% in June and declined 5.5% year-on-year, indicating that stabilization in real estate prices remains uneven.

Analysis framework

The report uses National Bureau of Statistics data on primary and secondary home prices across 70 cities as the main data source, and applies Goldman Sachs’ seasonally adjusted annualized month-on-month measure to assess price momentum; it also combines new home transaction volume in 30 cities, months of inventory clearance in key cities, and third-party secondary home price series to evaluate marginal changes in China’s real estate market.

Methodology notes

• Macro Real Estate TrackingComparison of annualized month-on-month and year-on-year changes in 70-city housing prices

  Using annualized month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the weighted average prices across 70 cities to judge whether price pressure in primary and secondary homes is easing at the margin.

  The annualized month-on-month indicator is better suited for observing short-term momentum, while the year-on-year indicator reflects the cumulative magnitude of price adjustment. The report specifically emphasizes that the 70-city primary home data only cover new home transactions and cannot directly represent the secondary housing market.

• City-Tier AnalysisLayered comparison across tier-1, tier-2, and tier-3 cities

  Breaking down price performance by city tier to identify whether recovery or stabilization is concentrated in core cities.

  Tier-1 cities continued to rise month-on-month in June, while tier-2 and tier-3 cities still declined but at a slower pace, showing that the price improvement has structural characteristics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Real Estate Market

  Direct research subject

  Strengths

  The decline in primary homes has narrowed, tier-1 cities are rising, and months of inventory clearance are falling.

  Weaknesses

  Secondary home prices are still posting deep year-on-year declines, and transaction volumes are slightly below the same period last year.

  Comparison

  The improvement in primary homes is stronger than in secondary homes, and tier-1 cities are outperforming tier-2 and tier-3 cities.

  Risks

  Unsustained demand recovery, continued declines in secondary home prices, and recurring inventory pressure in lower-tier cities.

• China Macro Economy

  The property cycle affects macro growth and household wealth expectations

  Strengths

  Price stabilization in core cities may improve household expectations and property-related activity.

  Weaknesses

  Real estate remains in an adjustment phase, and recovery in prices and transactions is still not broad-based.

  Comparison

  Compared with May, price momentum improved at the margin in June, but a broad recovery has not yet formed.

  Risks

  The risks of the property downturn dragging on consumption, local government finances, and credit chains still need to be monitored.

Key data

• Annualized month-on-month change in primary home prices across 70 cities-1.0%June 2026, based on Goldman Sachs seasonally adjusted measure; May was -1.8%.
• Year-on-year change in primary home prices across 70 cities-3.3%June 2026; May was -3.5%.
• Annualized month-on-month change in secondary home prices across 70 cities-1.5%June 2026, based on Goldman Sachs seasonally adjusted measure; May was -1.9%.
• Year-on-year change in secondary home prices across 70 cities-5.5%June 2026; May was -5.9%.
• Annualized month-on-month change in housing prices in tier-1 cities+2.0%June 2026; May was +1.4%.
• Annualized month-on-month change in Shanghai housing prices+2.2%June 2026; May was -3.0%.
• Annualized month-on-month change in housing prices in tier-2 cities-0.3%June 2026; May was -1.0%.
• Annualized month-on-month change in housing prices in tier-3 cities-1.0%June 2026; May was -1.8%.
• Months of inventory clearance in key cities27.5个月June 2026, down from 28.5 months in May, mainly driven by tier-2 cities.

Impact & implications

The data indicate that price pressure in China’s real estate market is easing at the margin, especially with improvement in new homes and core cities, which helps reduce market concerns about a further sharp downturn in property. However, secondary home prices are still falling significantly, and transaction volumes are slightly below the same period last year, indicating that demand recovery remains unstable and the macro drag from the property sector has not yet been fully removed.

Risks

• The decline in secondary home prices remains larger than that of primary homes, which may continue to weigh on household wealth expectations.
• New home transaction volume in 30 cities was slightly below the same period last year, indicating that demand-side recovery remains insufficient.
• Price improvement is mainly concentrated in tier-1 cities, while lower-tier cities still face downward pressure.
• Some third-party secondary home price series have been suspended, which may reduce market tracking transparency.

What to watch

• Whether the annualized month-on-month changes in primary and secondary home prices across 70 cities continue to improve in July and subsequent months.
• Whether price increases in tier-1 cities, especially Shanghai, can continue and spread to more cities.
• Whether price declines in tier-2 and tier-3 cities narrow further or widen again.
• Whether new home transaction volume in 30 cities recovers to above the same period last year.
• Whether months of inventory clearance in key cities continue to decline.