XPeng advances Robotaxi and L4 transition; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy rating

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' summary of XPeng's Robotaxi conference call and an update to its investment view. On the call, XPeng management outlined Robotaxi progress: the first mass-produced Robotaxi based on the GX model has rolled off the line and started road testing in Guangzhou, and the company is shifting its strategic focus from L2+ capabilities toward full L4 capabilities. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating, believing XPeng has relative advantages in data, models, chips, training efficiency, vehicle manufacturing, and new-model cycles.

Core views

The core views are as follows: first, the main bottlenecks to scaling L4 are cross-region generalization, cross-vehicle generalization, and sustained investment; second, XPeng is not pursuing L3 because the business logic and liability allocation are still unclear; third, passenger-car L4 and Robotaxi broadly use the same tech stack, but Robotaxi requires higher safety redundancy; fourth, entering a new city does not require retraining the foundation model from scratch, and instead mainly relies on local new-energy fleet data for long-tail scenario training and post-training; fifth, tighter regulation and longer approval cycles in the near term may allow XPeng to catch up with first-mover Robotaxi companies at lower cost.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes the call using management information, autonomous-driving technology paths, data and training infrastructure, vehicle product competitiveness comparisons, and DCF valuation. Goldman Sachs also uses recently launched 6-seat SUV models as samples to compare GX across price, range, and size dimensions, and evaluates Robotaxi progress within the broader framework of XPeng's sales growth, product cadence, and overseas expansion.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  12-month DCF target price

  Goldman Sachs uses DCF to derive an ADR target price of US$22 and an H-share target price of HK$85, assuming a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%.

• Product comparisonProduct comps analysis

  6-seat SUV product competitiveness comparison

  Goldman Sachs compares 16 recently launched 6-seat SUVs and scores them on price, range, and size, concluding that GX, especially the EREV version, ranks among the top three.

• Research toolGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile

  Goldman Sachs' factor profile compares individual stocks with the market and industry peers through growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators to provide an investment backdrop.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XPeng 9868.HK

  Research target; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and gives an H-share target price of HK$85.

  Strengths

  Has new-energy fleet data, the VLA2.0 foundation model, self-developed SoC and compiler, vehicle design and manufacturing capabilities, and growth visibility from model cycles and overseas expansion.

  Weaknesses

  The path and timing of the transition from L2 to L4 remain uncertain, requiring continued R&D and data investment, and Robotaxi approval cycles may be lengthy.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs believes XPeng may catch up with other Robotaxi peers by leveraging a late-mover advantage; GX ranks among the top three of 16 recently launched 6-seat SUVs.

  Risks

  Sales below expectations, worsening price competition, weaker-than-expected demand, and slower-than-expected L4 commercialization and regulatory progress.

• XPeng Inc. ADR (XPEV)

  Same company ADR; the report gives a 12-month target price of US$22.

  Strengths

  Shares the same company fundamentals, autonomous-driving technology, and model cycle logic as the H-shares.

  Weaknesses

  May diverge from H-share performance due to Chinese ADR sentiment, exchange rates, and overseas market sentiment.

  Comparison

  The report covers both the ADR and the H-share, both rated Buy.

  Risks

  Also faces uncertainties in sales, price competition, demand, and Robotaxi execution.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-25The report cover page shows Equity Research 25May2026.
• Robotaxi progressGX-based mass-produced Robotaxi rolled off the line and began road testing in GuangzhouXPeng's first mass-produced Robotaxi based on the GX model rolled off the line on May 18 and then began road testing in Guangzhou.
• GX ordersNearly 25,000 non-refundable ordersThe company said GX received nearly 25,000 non-refundable orders within 12 hours of launch.
• Training efficiency70% improvement in training efficiencyManagement said the training infrastructure can double data volume and improve training efficiency by 70%.
• In-house chip and compiler efficiency4-5x improvement in open-source model efficiencyThe report says the company achieves higher efficiency and lower cost through self-developed chips and compilers.
• H-share target priceHK$8512-month DCF target price.
• H-share current priceHK$62.60The disclosure page shows XPeng Inc. (H) at HK$62.60.
• ADR target priceUS$22The report also gives an ADR target price of US$22.

Impact & implications

If XPeng can demonstrate the generalization capability of its VLA2.0 foundation model across different ODDs such as cities, campuses, school areas, and parking lots, and extend the same tech stack to more Ultra model versions, Robotaxi and passenger-vehicle autonomous driving capabilities could form a data and cost flywheel. GX orders and EREV model performance would also improve visibility on sales growth. However, the timing of L4 commercialization remains uncertain, and regulatory approvals, sustained investment, and price competition remain key variables for valuation realization.

Risks

• Sales below expectations.
• Price competition becomes more intense than expected.
• Weaker-than-expected market demand.
• Tighter Robotaxi regulatory requirements and longer approval cycles.
• Uncertainty about the transition from L2 to L4 and the timing of commercialization.
• Cost pressure from continued R&D, data collection, and compute investment.

What to watch

• GX order conversion, delivery ramp-up, and EREV sales performance.
• The next OTA demonstration of VLA2.0's generalization ability in scenarios such as campuses, school areas, and parking lots.
• Progress in Guangzhou Robotaxi road testing and subsequent pilot operation plans.
• Whether L4 capability can be extended from GX to more Ultra model versions.
• China's Robotaxi regulatory approval pace and changes in city access.
• Subsequent new model launches, overseas localized production, and quarterly earnings performance.