AirElectric tax repayment drags on short-term share price, Nomura maintains Buy rating

Overview

This report focuses on AirElectric (300015.SS)'s tax repayment event and its impact on the share price, profit, and valuation. The company announced before the market opened on 2026-05-20 that, after a tax self-inspection, it would repay a total of CNY524mn in taxes and late fees, and would additionally increase its 2025 corporate income tax filing. Nomura judges that the event will mainly affect 2026 reported profit, but it does not require retrospective adjustment of historical financial statements and does not change future tax rate assumptions.

Core views

The core view is that the tax repayment amount has a material impact on 2026 profit, but it is closer to a one-off event. Nomura estimates that this amount is equivalent to about 14% of its 2026 net profit forecast and about 13.7% of Bloomberg consensus. Although the share price is under short-term pressure, the report still believes the company's day-to-day operations remain normal, so it maintains a Buy rating.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of event impact assessment and DCF valuation: first quantifying the tax repayment as a share of the 2026 profit forecast, then assessing operating continuity and the impact on future tax rates, and finally maintaining the target price through the DCF model.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  DCF valuation

  The target price of CNY13.32 is based on a DCF model, with key assumptions including a WACC of 9.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.0%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• AirElectric (300015.SS)

  Covered company in the report

  Strengths

  Day-to-day operations are believed to have been unaffected by the tax repayment event; Nomura maintains a Buy rating and a DCF target price.

  Weaknesses

  The CNY524mn tax payment creates a significant one-off hit to 2026 profit, and the news caused the share price to fall in the short term.

  Comparison

  After the announcement, AirElectric fell about 4% intraday, while the CSI300 was broadly flat over the same period, showing a clear idiosyncratic event impact.

  Risks

  Further compression of the valuation premium, deterioration in the macro environment, medical incidents, and goodwill impairment.

Key data

• Tax repayment and late feesCNY 524mnIncludes CNY348mn in tax repayment and CNY176mn in late fees, expected to be booked into 2026 profit and loss.
• Increase in 2025 corporate income tax filingCNY 232mnAdditional income tax filing amount disclosed in the company announcement.
• Impact on Nomura's 2026 net profit forecastabout 14%CNY524mn is equivalent to about 14% of Nomura's 2026 net profit forecast of CNY3.75bn.
• Impact on Bloomberg consensusabout 13.7%CNY524mn is equivalent to about 13.7% of Bloomberg consensus 2026 net profit of CNY3.82bn.
• Share price reactiondown about 4%Intraday performance after the announcement was weaker than the broadly flat CSI300.
• Target priceCNY 13.32Unchanged, based on the DCF model.
• Closing priceCNY 9.88Price date was 19-May-2026.

Impact & implications

The event dampens market sentiment in the short term and weakens 2026 profit performance, but if the company's judgment that it is a one-off event holds, the long-term valuation still depends on operating growth, profit recovery, and the market's acceptance of the valuation premium for the healthcare services sector. Keeping the target price unchanged means Nomura believes the tax issue is not yet sufficient to alter its medium- to long-term investment view.

Risks

• Further compression of the valuation premium.
• Deterioration in the macro environment.
• Occurrence of medical incidents.
• Goodwill impairment risk.
• If the one-off nature of the tax repayment is disproved, it could affect future tax rates and earnings expectations.

What to watch

• The actual recognition method for the CNY524mn tax payment in the 2026 profit and loss statement.
• Whether the company needs further tax adjustments or repayments.
• Whether the 2026 net profit forecast will be revised down as a result.
• The subsequent recovery of the share price relative to the CSI300.
• Whether the DCF key assumptions of a 9.4% WACC and 4.0% perpetual growth rate need to be adjusted.