2026 618 First Phase: Technology-Driven, Intensified Competition

Overview

This is Citi's review of the first phase performance of the 2026 618 shopping festival. The report indicates that, under a weak macroeconomic backdrop, market expectations for this year's 618 were already moderate. Some platforms started early promotions while JD.com returned to a more regularized rhythm, launching official sales on May 30. Preliminary results from the first phase show widespread adoption of AI tools across platforms to support merchants and boost conversions, presenting a 'technology-driven, highly competitive' sales cycle. However, Citi emphasizes caution regarding the final two weeks of the promotional period due to high base effects from last year.

Core views

JD.com: This year's 618 officially started at 8 PM on May 30 with up to 50% discounts and AI integration into all scenarios and value chains for the first time. Despite high base effects, the first phase showed strong performance — as of June 1, transaction users reached record levels, supermarket users grew by high double digits, and offline store foot traffic increased by over 70% within the first 52 hours. Digital human live streamer 'JoyStreamer' attracted over 300 million views, driving brand GMV growth of around three times YoY and generating over RMB 240 million GMV for over 80,000 merchants. In the first four hours after the official launch, top 100 brand GMV grew over fivefold YoY, and new merchant numbers increased by over 62% YoY. By category, iPhone GMV exceeded RMB 100 million within the first minute of sale, Huawei phones saw over fivefold YoY growth within ten minutes, and multiple categories such as home appliances, furniture, personal care, cosmetics, and outdoor products saw high YoY growth. Additionally, JoyBuy organized its first 618 campaign, providing same-day delivery to over 40 million overseas consumers in the UK, Germany, Netherlands, and France, which became a highlight of the report. Ali/Tmall: This year adopted a pre-sale plus in-stock dual model, described as 'the biggest discount in five years,' combined with official direct deductions and post-coupon prices as low as approximately 27%. Over one million brand merchants increased their investments on Tmall compared to last year; fashion, home furnishings, and fast-moving consumer goods had the most increased investing merchants, while pet supplies, food and beverage, jewelry, and collectibles experienced the fastest growth. Alimama daily active advertisers hit a new historical high, and total brand advertising spending grew double-digit. In the first phase (up to May 31), over 40,000 brands achieved doubled GMV, and the number of brands with over RMB 100 million GMV increased by 40% YoY. New products, emerging categories (AI smart hardware +80%, AI glasses +9x, baked pet food +200%), and new brands became key sources of incremental growth. Douyin, Kuaishou, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop: Douyin Mall (May 15–June 18) provided RMB 10 billion in consumption coupons and leveraged multiple consumption scenarios such as 520 Day, Dragon Boat Festival, and summer football events; in the first phase, the number of merchants with over RMB 100 million GMV grew 325% YoY. Kuaishou (May 16–June 18) offered RMB 10 billion in traffic support and 25% discounts, along with incentive policies for live streamers and merchants. Pinduoduo had the longest promotional window (May 21–June 30), emphasizing 'late finish' to capture long-tail consumption and offering cross-store discounts and automatic price protection. Vipshop launched a 110-hour limited-time sale starting late on May 30. Overall, subsidies and extended promotions became main tactics for capturing market share.

Analysis framework

Citi used a 'first-phase tracking and review of promotional events' approach: it first explained the macroeconomic background and market expectations for this year's 618, then analyzed each platform's promotional mechanisms (discount strength, subsidy scale, activity time windows), and actual transaction data from the first phase before concluding with an overall judgment on the entire event. In terms of data processing, the report extensively used YoY/MoM breakdowns of GMV and transaction users, further segmented by category and channel (online/offline, live streams, digital humans), using high-frequency data from the first phase to infer demand strength and competitive landscape. Notably, the 'high base effect' perspective was emphasized: since last year's 618 base was already high, even if the first phase showed impressive YoY performance, Citi did not extrapolate optimism to the full duration, highlighting caution regarding the use of YoY metrics and base effects.

Methodology notes

• Event Gaming and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Tracking first-phase data of promotional events like 618

  Treat promotional nodes like 618 as observable 'events' and use high-frequency transaction data (GMV, user count, merchant count) in the initial phase to infer the overall event's momentum. Readers can understand this as predicting the full duration based on the opening performance, but note that a good start does not necessarily mean a good end.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Split

  Splitting GMV by category and channel for YoY/MoM comparison

  E-commerce momentum is usually measured by GMV (Gross Merchandise Value). The report further breaks down GMV by category and channel and compares YoY/MoM growth rates to identify where growth is coming from and what is driving demand. This is a common method for judging changes in consumer structure.

• Cycle and Momentum Framework

  High Base Effect (Impact of Base Period on Growth Rate)

  When last year's data is already high, even if the absolute performance this year is good, the YoY growth rate may be pressured or diluted by the 'high base'. Citi specifically cautioned about the final two weeks of this year's 618 due to the high base from last year, reminding readers to consider base levels when evaluating YoY figures.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkIndustry Concentration Analysis

  Subsidies and Extended Promotions to Capture Market Share

  The report observed that Douyin, Kuaishou, and Pinduoduo used large subsidies and extended promotional windows to capture market share. This reflects the e-commerce industry's logic of competing for concentration through price/subsidy inputs: the more aggressive the promotion, the fiercer the share battle, and the greater the pressure on profit margins.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• JD.com (JD)

  Benefited from full-scenario AI integration and a strong start to the official promotional period: record transaction users and multiple categories with high growth, expanding into the European market via JoyBuy

  Strengths

  Complete AI infrastructure (Yanxi large model, etc.), digital human live streaming drove brand GMV growth of around three times; strong offline store and omnichannel foot traffic; JoyBuy's debut in Europe with same-day delivery

  Comparison

  Returned to a more regularized promotional rhythm, officially launched on May 30, differing from some platforms' early promotions

  Risks

  High base from last year, sustainability of subsequent growth needs monitoring

• Alibaba/Tmall (Tmall)

  Benefited from recovery of merchant investments: over one million brand merchants increased investments, advertising spending grew double-digit

  Strengths

  Biggest discount in five years; Alimama daily active advertisers hit a new high; new products, emerging categories, and new brands became key drivers of incremental growth

  Weaknesses

  Official direct deductions with discount costs borne by merchants (1%/5%/15% by category) might加重 merchant burdens

  Comparison

  Fashion, home furnishings, and fast-moving consumer goods had the most increased investing merchants; pet supplies, food and beverage, jewelry, and collectibles saw the fastest growth

  Risks

  Final performance under last year's high base remains to be seen

• Douyin Mall (Douyin)

  Captured market share with RMB 10 billion in consumption coupon subsidies and massive traffic, leveraging multiple consumption scenarios

  Strengths

  Merchants with over RMB 100 million GMV grew 325% YoY, creators drove GMV growth of fivefold YoY, beauty/fashion brands exploded

  Comparison

  Staged outreach to different consumer motivations around 520 Day, Dragon Boat Festival, and summer football events

• Kuaishou (Kuaishou)

  Offered RMB 10 billion in traffic support and 25% discounts, set incentive policies for live streamers and merchants to capture market share

  Strengths

  Merchant scale grew over 15% YoY in 2025, new quality merchants grew 26% YoY; monthly purchasing users of short videos increased over 15% YoY in March 2026

  Comparison

  Drove promotions through lottery live streaming, RMB 1 auctions, and limited RMB 1 items

• Pinduoduo (PDD)

  Longest promotional window (May 21–June 30), captured long-tail consumption with a 'latest finish' strategy for differentiation

  Strengths

  Three-tier cross-store discounts + automatic price protection mechanism, captured post-cycle consumption

  Comparison

  Among major platforms, had the longest promotional window

• Vipshop (VIPShop)

  Entered 618 with a 110-hour limited-time sale

  Strengths

  Hundreds of thousands of SKUs discounted to as low as 85% of standard prices or lower, set 24-hour 'frenzy purchase' sessions

  Comparison

  Scheduled a second flash sale round on June 15, relatively concentrated activity time

Key data

• 2025 618 Total Network GMV (Reference)RMB 855.6 billion, +15.2% YoYStarTrack Data口径 (May 13–June 18), last year had an additional week of promotion; fast-moving consumer goods and express/instant retail GMV grew 18.7% YoY to RMB 29.6 billion
• JD.com Top 100 Brand GMV (First 4 Hours)Over fivefold YoY growthNew merchant numbers grew over 62% YoY; 51 new merchants achieved over RMB 10 million GMV, 1,516 achieved over RMB 1 million GMV
• JD.com Offline Store Foot Traffic (First 52 Hours)Over 70% YoY growthOver 5,600 JD 3C stores saw 138% YoY foot traffic increase, 27 JD MALL locations saw 53% YoY GMV growth
• JoyStreamer Digital Human Live StreamingOver 300 million views, over RMB 240 million GMVDrove brand GMV growth of around three times YoY, served over 80,000 merchants; JoyMarketing interacted with over 135 million users, merchant conversion improved 47.3%
• JoyBuy Debut in EuropeCovered over 40 million overseas consumersProvided same-day delivery to the UK, Germany, Netherlands, and France
• Tmall Brands with Increased InvestmentOver one million brandsExceeded last year's level; over 40,000 brands achieved doubled GMV in the first phase, brands with over RMB 100 million GMV increased by 40% YoY, brand advertising spending grew double-digit
• Douyin Mall Consumption Coupon SubsidiesRMB 10 billionMerchants with over RMB 100 million GMV grew 325% YoY, products with over RMB 100 million GMV grew 300% YoY, over 150,000 creators drove GMV growth of fivefold YoY
• Kuaishou Traffic SupportRMB 10 billionPromotional period: May 16–June 18, offered 25% discounts; merchant scale grew over 15% YoY in 2025

Impact & implications

The report believes this year's 618 presented a 'technology-driven, highly competitive' feature: AI tools (digital human live streaming, smart recommendations, smart customer service, etc.) have evolved from marketing gimmicks to practical means to support merchants and enhance conversions, with JD.com extending them to all scenarios and value chains. Platforms competed fiercely by capturing shares through subsidies and extended promotions, indicating heightened competition intensity. For Tmall, the recovery of merchant investments and advertising spending reflected improved merchant confidence. However, Citi emphasized that the impressive first-phase data was built on a high base from last year, thus remaining cautious about the final performance (especially the last two weeks) without making optimistic extrapolations for the entire duration.

Risks

• Last year's high base may pressure this year's YoY growth rate, with uncertainty surrounding the final performance of the promotional period
• Intense competition among Douyin, Kuaishou, and Pinduoduo through large subsidies and extended promotions increases industry competition intensity

What to watch

• Final two weeks' ultimate sales performance during the 618 promotional period
• Whether the recovery of Tmall's merchant investments and advertising spending can be sustained