Memory Prices Drive Accelerating Global Semiconductor Growth, with June Sales Outperforming Seasonality MoM
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Memory Prices Drive Accelerating Global Semiconductor Growth, with June Sales Outperforming Seasonality MoM
Global semiconductor sales in June 2026 grew 10.5% MoM and about 135% YoY, while memory sales grew about 379% YoY, but industry growth is highly dependent on memory prices.
- Global semiconductor sales grew 10.5% MoM, above the historical average June increase of 6.5%.
- Sales grew about 135% YoY, further accelerating from 128% in May.
- Memory sales grew about 379% YoY, contributing about US$275 billion of incremental revenue year-to-date through June.
- Excluding memory, semiconductor sales still grew 38% YoY, showing that the upcycle is not driven entirely by memory alone.
- Eight of 11 product groups outperformed seasonality MoM, with microprocessors, analog chips, and flash memory standing out.
- Total shipments increased 11.7% MoM, while industry average selling price declined 1.1% MoM; memory per-bit prices continued to rise.
Report interpretation
Overview
Based on monthly WSTS data released by SIA, the report tracks global semiconductor sales, shipments, average selling prices, product categories, end markets, and regional performance through June 2026. Industry sales in June increased 10.5% MoM, above historical seasonality, with YoY growth of about 135%, mainly driven jointly by memory pricing and volumes. Sales in the Americas, Europe, Japan, China, and the rest of Asia Pacific all achieved both YoY and MoM growth.
Core views
First, the global semiconductor upcycle continues to strengthen, with June MoM growth well above normal seasonality, and three-month rolling sales growth of 35.1%, also far above the historical average of 4.6%. Second, memory is the decisive driver of this round of growth, with sales up about 379% YoY, and memory pricing contributing about two-thirds of industry revenue growth since the start of the year. Third, non-memory sales still grew 38% YoY, with microprocessors, logic, analog chips, and consumer and computer end-market demand all performing well. Fourth, sales growth mainly came from higher shipments; overall average selling price declined 1.1% MoM, but DRAM and NAND per-bit prices rose 4.0% and 3.7% MoM, respectively. Fifth, at the stock level, the report continues to favor leaders related to artificial intelligence computing, advanced processes, and fab equipment, while remaining cautious on names with elevated valuations, unclear recovery paths, or near-term demand pressure.
Analysis framework
The report compares the MoM changes in monthly sales, shipments, and average selling prices with historical monthly averages from 2020 to 2025, and combines YoY, three-month rolling, product category, end-market, and regional breakdowns to assess the strength of the cycle; it then maps industry data to investment views on covered names in artificial intelligence computing, memory, foundry, semiconductor equipment, and other areas.
Methodology notes
Uses global semiconductor sales, shipments, and average selling price data to measure industry conditions.
The data covers through June 2026 and is broken down by product category, end market, and region.
Compares the current month's MoM growth rate with the historical average for the same month from 2020 to 2025.
This method is used to distinguish normal seasonal growth from above-seasonal demand; total sales growth in June was 4 percentage points above the historical average.
Breaks down changes in sales into changes in shipments and average selling prices.
Total shipments in June increased 11.7% MoM, while the industry average selling price declined 1.1% MoM; memory per-bit prices continued to rise.
Assesses the breadth, concentration, and sustainability of growth through multi-dimensional breakdowns.
The report compares performance across 11 product groups, six application-specific integrated circuit end markets, and five major regions.
Combines trends in artificial intelligence, memory, and fab equipment to assess growth drivers and risks for covered companies.
Stock ratings are based on expected performance relative to the benchmark index of the relevant market over the next 12 months.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Global semiconductor industryDirect mapping to industry conditions
- Strengths
- Sales growth MoM was above seasonality, YoY growth continued to accelerate, and all major regions achieved both YoY and MoM growth.
- Weaknesses
- Growth contribution is concentrated in memory, while the overall industry average selling price still declined 1.1% MoM.
- Comparison
- June sales grew 10.5% MoM, above the historical average of 6.5%; three-month rolling growth was 35.1%, above the historical average of 4.6%.
- Risks
- A decline in memory prices or high-base effects could cause industry growth to converge rapidly.
- Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron, KIOXIACore beneficiaries and differentiated names in the memory upcycle
- Strengths
- Memory sales grew about 379% YoY, and both volumes and per-bit prices for DRAM and NAND rose MoM.
- Weaknesses
- Industry growth is highly dependent on memory pricing, and companies show clear differentiation in product mix and valuation.
- Comparison
- Bernstein assigns Outperform ratings to Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron, with target prices of KRW 440,000, KRW 3,300,000, and US$1,300, respectively; KIOXIA is rated Underperform with a target price of JPY 40,000.
- Risks
- A reversal in the memory pricing cycle, supply expansion, or cooling end demand could compress earnings leverage.
- AMD, NVDA, AVGOBeneficiaries of artificial intelligence computing demand
- Strengths
- Artificial intelligence demand supports growth in central processing units, graphics processing units, custom accelerators, and data center businesses, and the report believes the related long-term opportunity remains large.
- Weaknesses
- Market expectations are high, and sustained delivery of growth and margins is key to maintaining valuations.
- Comparison
- All three are rated Outperform; target prices for AMD, NVDA, and AVGO are US$650, US$315, and US$550, respectively.
- Risks
- High expectations, elevated valuations, changes in customer capital expenditure, and a slowdown in artificial intelligence demand growth.
- AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASMLBeneficiaries of fab equipment and advanced processes
- Strengths
- Long-term growth in wafer fabrication equipment, gate-all-around, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, and NAND upgrades provide structural drivers.
- Weaknesses
- Valuations for some names already reflect strong growth expectations, and equipment spending remains cyclical.
- Comparison
- All four are rated Outperform; target prices are AMAT US$525, LRCX US$360, KLAC US$225, and ASML EUR 2,500.
- Risks
- Delays in fab capital expenditure, regional sales restrictions, customer concentration, and valuation compression.
- TSMCBeneficiary of advanced processes and artificial intelligence foundry demand
- Strengths
- Artificial intelligence and advanced-process demand provide growth support, and Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating.
- Weaknesses
- The upside of the ADR target price relative to the closing price listed in the report is limited, and investment returns still depend on continued earnings upgrades.
- Comparison
- The target price for TSM is US$430; the target price for 2330.TT is NT$2,780.
- Risks
- Semiconductor cycle volatility, customer concentration, capital expenditure intensity, and geopolitical uncertainty.
- ADI, NXPI, QCOM, TXNDifferentiated names in analog, automotive, and communications semiconductors
- Strengths
- Sales of standard linear analog and application-specific analog chips increased 14.6% and 15.9% MoM, respectively, both better than seasonality.
- Weaknesses
- Some companies are near cyclical peaks or are fully valued, and QCOM also needs to address near-term pressures related to smartphone memory costs, margins, and AAPL.
- Comparison
- ADI, NXPI, QCOM, and TXN are all rated Market-Perform, with target prices of US$430, US$290, US$165, and US$290, respectively.
- Risks
- Uncertain pace of recovery in automotive and industrial markets, pressure on smartphone demand, and valuation pullback.
Key data
- Global semiconductor sales MoM growth10.5%Above the historical average June increase of 6.5%.
- Global semiconductor sales YoY growth135.4%The main text describes it as about 135%; May YoY growth was 128%.
- Three-month rolling sales growth35.1%Significantly above the 2020 to 2025 historical average of 4.6%.
- Memory sales YoY growth378.9%Memory sales grew nearly fourfold compared with the same period last year.
- Non-memory sales YoY growth38%Shows that non-memory areas also maintained strong growth.
- Year-to-date incremental revenue contributed by memoryabout US$275 billionStatistics through June 2026.
- Contribution of memory pricing to industry revenue growthabout two-thirdsRelevant charts describe it as about 70%.
- Total shipments MoM growth11.7%Shipments increased MoM across all 11 product groups.
- Industry average selling price MoM change-1.1%Five of 11 product groups rose, while six declined.
- Industry average selling price YoY growth117.5%Mainly driven by rising memory prices.
- Microprocessor sales MoM growth23.2%Significantly above the historical average of 5.2%, with YoY growth of 49.3%.
- DRAM sales MoM growth7.6%Above the historical average of 5.9%; per-bit price rose 4.0% MoM.
- NAND sales MoM growth14.8%Above the historical average of 10.2%; per-bit price rose 3.7% MoM.
- Application-specific integrated circuit sales MoM growth10.6%Above the historical average of 6.6%, with consumer and computer end markets leading.
- China regional sales MoM growth17.2%The highest MoM growth among the major regions listed in the report.
- Americas regional sales YoY growth157.9%The highest YoY growth among the major regions listed in the report.
Impact & implications
Above-seasonal industry growth, artificial intelligence computing demand, and rising memory prices provide positive support for memory manufacturers, advanced-process foundries, and fab equipment suppliers. The 38% YoY growth in non-memory areas is also favorable for logic, microprocessor, and some analog chip companies. However, industry revenue growth is highly concentrated in memory pricing, and the overall average selling price declined MoM, implying significant differences in earnings leverage across subsectors. From an investment perspective, it is more appropriate to prioritize leaders with structural share gains driven by artificial intelligence, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, advanced processes, or equipment, while remaining alert to high valuations and demand normalization risks.
Risks
- Memory prices contributed most of the industry's growth; if prices weaken, revenue and earnings growth may decline significantly.
- The industry average selling price declined 1.1% MoM in June, showing that some products outside memory still face pricing pressure.
- MoM sales performance for microcontrollers and digital signal processors was below historical seasonality, indicating that some end-market demand remains uneven.
- Market expectations for artificial intelligence and equipment leaders are high, and results below expectations could trigger valuation compression.
- ADI may be closer to a cyclical peak, TXN is relatively fully valued, and NXPI still faces uncertainty in the pace and structure of its recovery.
- QCOM faces near-term pressures related to smartphone memory costs, margins, and AAPL.
- Monthly data may be affected by seasonality, price volatility, and a high YoY base, so single-month growth should not be directly extrapolated.
What to watch
- Whether DRAM and NAND per-bit prices can continue to rise, and whether the contribution of memory prices to industry growth declines.
- YoY growth in global semiconductor sales under a high base and MoM performance in subsequent months.
- Whether strong growth in microprocessors and logic chips can continue and further validate artificial intelligence and computing demand.
- Whether performance in microcontrollers, digital signal processors, and wireless communications end markets can recover to normal seasonal levels.
- The sustainability of growth and regional differences across the Americas, China, Japan, Europe, and the rest of Asia Pacific.
- Trends in artificial intelligence infrastructure capital expenditure, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, and fab equipment orders.
- Whether the industry's overall volume-price mix of average selling prices and shipments spreads from memory to more product categories.