China property transactions eased in Week 36, but secondary-market signals and sentiment improved

Overview

This weekly China property update examines sales, secondary-market sentiment, inventory, policy changes, construction indicators and developer valuations. Goldman Sachs sees transaction volumes pulling back in Week 36 but identifies more constructive leading signals in the secondary market.

Core views

Week 36 primary-market transactions softened: new-home gross floor area sold fell 6% week on week, although it was still 21% higher year on year across roughly 75 cities. New-home search activity also declined 2.3% week on week. Year to date, primary GFA sold was down 11% year on year and remained 17% below the 2024 level and 37% below the 2023 level. Secondary transactions fell 7% week on week but increased 5% year on year in roughly 20 cities; year-to-date secondary GFA sold rose 2% year on year and was 14% above both 2024 and 2023 levels. The report highlights improving secondary-market leading indicators despite the weekly volume pullback. Secondary subscriptions, which lead registration-based sales by one to two weeks, increased 10% week on week, and secondary-market visits rose 13%. Price-appreciation expectations edged higher among both agents and sellers. The Centaline Salesman Index rose 1.8 percentage points week on week and 2.5 points year on year; the Seller Asking Index increased 0.1 point week on week, though it was 5.4 points lower year on year. Secondary listings rose 22% week on week, partly due to seasonality. Beijing and Shenzhen secondary prices each softened by 0.2% and 0.1% week on week, respectively, matching the prior week and the nationwide pace of softening, while Shanghai prices were flat after a 0.1% increase the prior week. Inventory remained stable week on week. Total inventory was flat and 7.8% below end-2025 levels, while inventory months stood at 27.1, compared with averages of 27.1 in July and 27.2 in August. Policy support continued at the local level: Haikou broadened purchase eligibility and quotas for qualifying groups; Chongqing increased maximum Housing Provident Fund loan limits and allowed monthly withdrawals for commercial-mortgage repayment; and Wuhan introduced new-home purchase subsidies equal to 1% of the purchase price in seven districts through end-2026, with a total budget of Rmb100mn. Construction indicators remained weak. Goldman Sachs' Property Completion tracker, derived from its China float-glass supply-demand outlook and proprietary weekly demand model, implies a high-teens year-on-year decline in August 2026 completions, versus a 19% decline reported by NBS and a high-teens decline estimated by Goldman Sachs Economics for July. Goldman Sachs Economics forecasts a 15% year-on-year decline in FY26E completions. The report also expects new starts to decline by a high-twenties percentage year on year in August, based on land-sales trends in 300 cities and a nationwide cement shipment ratio that was flat week on week at 43.3%. Separately, it estimates BEKE's July-August GTV could rise 12% year on year, including 18% growth in new homes and 10% in existing homes, compared with the internet team's 3Q26E estimate of 1% growth. On valuations, covered stronger state-owned developers gained 1% on average during the week. CMSK, Poly and COLI outperformed with share-price gains of 6%, 5% and 3%, respectively, while other developers were flat on average. Offshore covered developers were flat versus a 1% decline in MSCI China, while onshore coverage gained 4% versus a 1% fall in CSI 300. Goldman Sachs states that offshore coverage trades at an average 39% discount to end-2026E NAV and 0.4x 2026E P/B, compared with prior downturn troughs of 39%/0.7x in 2H2008, 73%/0.9x in 2H2011 and 58%/0.9x in 1H2014. Onshore coverage trades at a 21% NAV discount and 0.4x 2026E P/B, compared with 67%/1.6x, 64%/1.5x and 61%/1.2x at those respective troughs.

Analysis framework

The report combines weekly primary and secondary transaction data with search, subscription, visitation, asking-price and agent-sentiment indicators to assess near-term demand. It then evaluates supply through inventory and a proprietary float-glass supply-demand model used to infer completions, and contextualizes developer performance through NAV discounts and price-to-book valuation comparisons.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Property-market supply-demand tracking

  The report combines sales, search activity, subscriptions, visits, listings and inventory to assess demand conditions and the supply-demand balance in China's housing market.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Float-glass demand model used to infer property completions

  Goldman Sachs uses downstream supply-demand implications from its float-glass outlook and weekly demand model as an indicator of property completion activity.

• Valuation methodsNAV (Net Asset Value)

  Discount to estimated net asset value

  The report compares developer share prices with end-2026 estimated NAV to show the discount at which offshore and onshore coverage trades.

• Valuation methodsPB valuation

  Price-to-book valuation comparison

  The report compares 2026E P/B multiples for covered developers with prior property-sector downturn troughs.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Overseas Land & Investment (00688.HK)

  Covered stronger SOE developer; outperformed in Week 36.

  Strengths

  Share price rose 3% week on week; rated Buy.

  Comparison

  Part of the stronger SOE group, which gained 1% on average.

• China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979.SZ)

  Covered stronger SOE developer; outperformed in Week 36.

  Strengths

  Share price rose 6% week on week.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Neutral.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the stronger SOE group average of +1%.

• Poly Developments and Holdings Group (600048.SH)

  Covered stronger SOE developer; outperformed in Week 36.

  Strengths

  Share price rose 5% week on week.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Neutral.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the stronger SOE group average of +1%.

• China Resources Land (01109.HK)

  Covered stronger SOE developer.

  Strengths

  Rated Buy.

  Weaknesses

  Share price fell 1% week on week.

  Comparison

  Part of the stronger SOE group.

• Greentown China Holdings (03900.HK)

  Covered developer.

  Strengths

  Rated Buy.

  Weaknesses

  Share price fell 5% week on week.

  Comparison

  Classified as mixed ownership in the report.

• China Jinmao Holdings Group (00817.HK)

  Covered stronger SOE developer.

  Strengths

  Rated Buy.

  Weaknesses

  Share price was flat week on week.

  Comparison

  Classified as a central SOE in the report.

• Longfor Group Holdings (00960.HK)

  Covered other developer.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Neutral; share price fell 5% week on week.

  Comparison

  Other developers were flat on average.

• Seazen Group (01030.HK)

  Covered other developer.

  Strengths

  Share price rose 2% week on week.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Sell.

  Comparison

  Classified as a private-owned enterprise in the report.

• Vanke A (000002.SZ) and Vanke H (02202.HK)

  Covered mixed-ownership developer.

  Weaknesses

  Both shares are rated Sell.

  Comparison

  Vanke A was flat and Vanke H rose 2% during the week.

Key data

• Primary new-home GFA sold, Week 36-6% wow; +21% yoyAcross approximately 75 cities.
• Secondary GFA sold, Week 36-7% wow; +5% yoyAcross approximately 20 cities.
• Primary GFA sold, YTD-11% yoy; -17%/-37% versus 2024/2023Average across 75 cities.
• Secondary GFA sold, YTD+2% yoy; +14%/+14% versus 2024/2023Average across 20 cities.
• Secondary subscriptions and visits+10% wow; +13% wowSubscriptions lead registration-based sales by one to two weeks.
• Inventory months27.1Inventory balance was flat week on week.
• August 2026 completionsHigh-teens % yoy declineIndicated by the GSPC tracker.
• FY26E completions-15% yoyGoldman Sachs Economics estimate.
• Offshore developer valuation39% discount to end-2026E NAV; 0.4x 2026E P/BAverage across offshore coverage.
• Onshore developer valuation21% discount to end-2026E NAV; 0.4x 2026E P/BAverage across onshore coverage.

Impact & implications

The report frames the market as showing a short-term divergence: observed transaction volumes weakened, but secondary-market leading indicators and buyer and seller sentiment improved. Local policy easing may support demand, while weak expected completions and new starts point to continued pressure on construction activity. Developer valuations are presented as near downturn-trough levels on P/B measures.

What to watch

• Whether stronger secondary subscriptions and visits translate into registration-based secondary sales over the next one to two weeks.
• Changes in agent and seller price-appreciation expectations, secondary listings and prices in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai.
• Implementation and demand effects of the local policy measures in Haikou, Chongqing and Wuhan.
• August completions, new-start data and BEKE's July-August GTV performance.