China sportswear offline sales cooled in April, widening brand divergence

Overview

This report is Deutsche Bank's monthly offline sales tracker for the China sportswear industry, focusing on same-store sales, store count, average selling price, and new product dynamics across major sports brands in mainland China in April 2026. The conclusion is that offline sales cooled after the strong 1Q26 shopping season, in line with the online sales tracker, mainly due to a persistently weak consumer environment in China, post-holiday demand normalization, and intensifying competition in sub-segments.

Core views

The core views are: first, overall April offline sportswear sales softened, with the industry shifting from the strong rebound seen in 1Q26 to divergence and slower growth; second, the Anta portfolio saw wider internal dispersion, with Kolon continuing to grow rapidly while Fila and Descente slowed materially; third, Li Ning's momentum improved, with April same-store sales growth reaching about 10%; fourth, outdoor and functional brands began to face a high base, fading brand heat, and intensifying competition, with Lululemon, Hoka, Salomon, and Arc'teryx all showing negative growth or weak performance; and fifth, brands with strong execution, differentiated positioning, and smaller but efficient store networks can still maintain strong per-store productivity.

Analysis framework

The report uses alternative offline sales data for industry tracking and cross-checks it against online sales tracking. The analytical framework includes same-store sales growth, store scale, average selling price, annual sales per store, new product launches, and portfolio performance. The report also combines the company investment cases for Anta and Li Ning, a DCF valuation framework, and key risks to form stock-level investment judgments.

Methodology notes

• Alternative Data TrackingOffline Sales Tracking

  Track brands' offline sales trends based on sampled stores

  This tracking covers about 10% of total stores and is used to measure changes in same-store sales, store count, and average selling price for major sports brands in mainland China; it should not be equated with official brand revenue.

• Operating MetricSame-store Sales Growth

  Same-store sales growth measures changes in sales at comparable stores

  The report uses SSSG to compare sales growth on the basis of the same or comparable stores, excluding part of the impact from store expansion.

• Valuation MethodDiscounted Cash Flow Analysis

  Value a company by discounting future cash flows

  DCF is used for both Anta and Li Ning; Anta assumptions include a 1.7% risk-free rate, 1.35 beta, 6.5% market risk premium, 9.8% WACC, and a 0.0% terminal growth rate.

• Relative Operating AnalysisStore Footprint and ASP Analysis

  Evaluate brand efficiency by combining store count, average selling price, and annual sales per store

  The report compares large brands with smaller but highly efficient premium or specialist brands, noting that smaller brands with clear positioning may achieve faster growth thanks to stronger brand image and high per-store output.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports

  A leading China sportswear company with a multi-brand portfolio spanning mass, sports fashion, outdoor, and premium specialist markets.

  Strengths

  Diversified brand portfolio, strong performance at Kolon, and the core Anta brand remained relatively resilient even in a weak macro environment; it benefits long term from a multi-brand and internationalization strategy.

  Weaknesses

  Fila and Descente slowed materially in April, widening growth dispersion within the portfolio; overall sales cooled versus 1Q26.

  Comparison

  Has a richer brand matrix than Li Ning; compared with a single premium outdoor brand, it has a larger store base but lower per-store output.

  Risks

  Weak macro consumption, falling traffic, excess inventory, fashion risk in premium product lines, and intensifying promotional competition in the industry.

• Li Ning

  China's second-largest sportswear company, and the report treats it as a key focus for both industry tracking and company research.

  Strengths

  April same-store sales growth improved to 10%, with running shoes and IPs such as Feidian helping repair brand perception, while the company is also trying to expand into outdoor categories.

  Weaknesses

  It is still in the recovery phase after the brand downcycle of the past two years, revenue and earnings growth expectations are in the low single digits, and valuation has already partly priced in a turnaround.

  Comparison

  Its brand structure is more concentrated than Anta's, with the core brand contributing about 90% of revenue; it relies more heavily on a single-brand recovery.

  Risks

  Weak macro demand, domestic and international brand competition eroding share, inventory and discounting pressures on margins, and lagged returns on marketing spend.

• Adidas

  An international sports brand that remained relatively resilient in China's offline sales network and monthly growth.

  Strengths

  April growth was about 13%, consistent with recent results and online tracking, showing that momentum in China is still solid.

  Weaknesses

  Growth slowed slightly from 15% in 1Q26 and remains affected by the overall industry cooling.

  Comparison

  April growth was higher than Nike, Anta, and Fila, showing relative resilience.

  Risks

  Weak China consumer demand, competition from domestic brands, and changes in the promotional environment.

• Nike

  An international sports brand with still-positive monthly offline sales in China, but clear slowing.

  Strengths

  Still delivered about 3% positive growth in April.

  Weaknesses

  Slowed sharply from about 20% in 1Q26, indicating weaker momentum.

  Comparison

  April performance was weaker than Adidas and Li Ning.

  Risks

  Slowing demand, competition from domestic brands, and insufficient brand momentum.

• Kolon

  An outdoor brand within the Anta portfolio and a high-growth highlight in April.

  Strengths

  April SSSG was about 64%, extending a very strong performance, helped by Anta's marketing and execution.

  Weaknesses

  Growth has slowed from 73% in 1Q26, and the high-growth base is gradually rising.

  Comparison

  Significantly stronger than Descente, Salomon, and Arc'teryx, and one of the strongest outdoor brands.

  Risks

  High base effects, intensifying competition in outdoor categories, and changes in consumer enthusiasm.

• Lululemon

  A representative brand in the functional and yoga category.

  Strengths

  Premium positioning and annual sales per store of about Rmb 41.5mn, with historically strong per-store efficiency.

  Weaknesses

  April SSSG was about -3%, and the report believes yoga is losing momentum while competition is heating up.

  Comparison

  Performed weaker than Asics and On and weaker than most sports brands that were still growing.

  Risks

  Declining yoga category popularity, intensifying competition, fashion fatigue, and high-base pressure.

• Hoka

  A performance running-shoe brand.

  Strengths

  Previously had strong growth and brand heat in the running category.

  Weaknesses

  April YoY growth was about -14%, turning negative.

  Comparison

  Clearly weaker than Asics and On, showing divergence within the running-shoe category.

  Risks

  Slowing growth in running shoes, intense competition, and fading brand momentum.

Key data

• Sample coverageAbout 10% of total storesThe report explicitly states that the sample is used for trend assessment and does not represent official revenue.
• Li Ning April SSSG10%Above 1Q26's 8%, indicating improved sales momentum.
• Anta April SSSG4%Below about 19% in 1Q26, but still relatively resilient among domestic brands.
• Nike and Adidas April growthNike 3%; Adidas 13%Nike slowed sharply from 20% in 1Q26, while Adidas slowed only slightly from 15% in 1Q26.
• Fila April SSSG1%Below 19% in 1Q26, but better than -4% in 4Q25.
• Kolon April SSSG64%Still a high-growth brand in both the Anta portfolio and the outdoor market, versus 73% in 1Q26.
• Descente April SSSG0%Below 5% in 1Q26, showing post-holiday cooling.
• Salomon April SSSG-2%Below 3% in 1Q26, mainly affected by a high base in 2025.
• Kailas April SSSG16%Still a strong performer among domestic Chinese outdoor brands, versus 28% in 1Q26.
• Arc'teryx April SSSG-7%Below -2% in 1Q26, partly reflecting high-base pressure after exceptionally high per-store output.
• Lululemon April SSSG-3%Weak momentum in yoga apparel and rising competition.
• Hoka April YoY growth-14%Growth slowed in running shoes and turned negative due to intense competition.
• Asics and On April growthAsics 18%; On 10%Still positive, but clearly slower than in 2025.
• Anta store count and ASP5,848 stores; ASP Rmb 543; annual sales per store about Rmb 4.7mnAlternative-data estimate as of April.
• Adidas store count and ASP5,606 stores; ASP Rmb 844; annual sales per store about Rmb 9.1mnAmong the leading store networks with steady momentum.
• Arc'teryx store count and per-store output124 stores; ASP Rmb 4,189; annual sales per store about Rmb 55mnThe premium outdoor brand has extremely high per-store efficiency, but growth is facing a high base.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that industry beta weakened in April, so the logic of relying solely on consumer recovery needs to be more cautious; brand execution, category positioning, inventory management, and channel efficiency will become the key differentiators. Anta's multi-brand portfolio still has long-term advantages, but in the near term investors should monitor the slowdown in Fila and Descente; Li Ning is showing signs of recovery, but valuation may already reflect part of the turnaround; high-growth outdoor and functional brands need to watch for slower growth due to high bases and competition.

Risks

• China's macro consumer environment could be weaker than expected, leading to lower store traffic and industry demand.
• Excess inventory could trigger deeper discounting and compress margins.
• More aggressive promotions in the sportswear industry could intensify competition and erode brand share.
• High-growth sub-segments such as yoga, running shoes, and outdoor could face high bases, fashion fatigue, or fading brand heat.
• The sample data covers only about 10% of stores and is a trend indicator, not official revenue or audited figures.
• Premium product lines carry fashion risk; if product iterations underperform expectations, sales could be affected.

What to watch

• Whether same-store sales weaken further in May and later months, or recover after the holiday period.
• Whether Fila and Descente in the Anta portfolio stabilize, and whether Kolon's high growth can continue.
• Whether Li Ning's running category, new outdoor stores, and brand perception recovery can translate into sustained revenue growth.
• Whether Adidas' relative strength continues and whether Nike can reaccelerate.
• Whether high-base brands such as Lululemon, Hoka, Salomon, and Arc'teryx remain under pressure.
• The impact of promotion intensity, inventory levels, and discount changes on margins.
• Whether offline tracking continues to corroborate online sales data.